Post on 22-Feb-2016
description
Secondary Student Outcomes: A Focus on Early Leavers
Presented by
Kelli PhythianResearch Services, York Region District School Board
October 6, 2010
Overview• Description of graduates and early leavers
after 5 years• Investigation of the factors that predict the
odds of early leaving– Demographic characteristics– School achievement
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
Definitions• Graduates: Students who met the credit, EQAO and
community service requirements for an OSSD, plus those who have been awarded an OSSD according to the graduation table.
• Early Leavers: Students who, at the end of year 5, were not:– graduates (according to the definition above);– transfers (i.e., to another Board, province, or country); – continuers (i.e., returned to YRDSB the following year); or– deceased.
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
A Profile of Graduates and Leavers• Data are from two Grade 9 cohorts: 2001 and
2002.• Cohorts include students who were registered
in Grade 9 as of November 1, 2001 and 2002. • Students were tracked over 5 years.• Analyses include only those students who had
one of two outcomes over the five year period: graduation or early leaving
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
Secondary Outcomes
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
2001 2002 N % N %
Students in grade 9 7,282 7,666At the end of 4 years: Graduates 4,912 67.5 5,423 70.7 Transfers 602 8.3 667 8.7 Deceased 10 0.1 7 0.1 Leavers 537 7.4 504 6.6 Continuers 1,221 16.8 1,065 13.9
Demographic Characteristics of Graduates and Leavers: Gender
Leavers
Female38.1%
Male61.9%
Graduates
Female49.9%
Male50.1%
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
Demographic Characteristics of Graduates and Leavers: Special Education ID
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
Graduates
None88.6%
Other0.9%
Behavioural0.4%
MID1.7%
LD8.3%
Leavers
None70.7%
Other3.2%
Behavioural4.5%
MID5.4%
LD16.2%
Demographic Characteristics of Graduates and Leavers: Guardianship
Graduates
Both parents75.5%
Non-parent0.7%
Unknown15.6%
Single parent8.2%
Leavers
Both parents58.6%Single parent
22.9%
Unknown15.1%
Non-parent3.4%
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
Academic Characteristics of Graduates and Leavers: Credit Accumulation, Years 1 to 3
Graduates
On track82.0%
Below grade expectation to year 3
18.0%
Leavers
On track13.2%
Below grade expectation to year 3
86.8%
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
8.0
16.1
24.0
30.732.3
6.5
12.8
18.7
23.6 23.7
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Year of High School
Mea
n N
o. o
f Cre
dits
Graduates Leavers
Academic Characteristics of Graduates and Leavers: Credit Accumulation by Year
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
3.1
17.8
22.3 22.3
25.5
8.8
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
0 0.5 to 8 8.5 to 16 16.5 to 24 24.5 to 29.5 30 or more
Mean Number of Credits at Exit among Leavers
% o
f Stu
dent
sAcademic Characteristics of Graduates
and Leavers: Credit Accumulation at Exit
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
4.2
26.7
53.4
15.712.2
43.340.5
4.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Level 1 or below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Grade 6 EQAO Reading Result
% o
f Stu
dent
s
Graduates Leavers
Academic Characteristics of Graduates and Leavers: Grade 6 EQAO Reading
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
12.4
18.6
61.2
7.8
26.3
34.738.3
0.70.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Level 1 or below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Grade 9 EQAO Math Result
% o
f Stu
dent
s
Graduates Leavers
Academic Characteristics of Graduates and Leavers: Grade 9 EQAO Math
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early
• Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of leaving early based on– Demographic characteristics– Earlier achievement– Controlling for gender
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early: Special Education ID
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
0.08
0.45
0.17
0.24 0.26
0.06
0.36
0.120.18 0.19
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
Not Identified(N=11,467)
Behavioural (N=117) Learning Disability(N=1,206)
Mild IntellectualDisability (N=283)
Other Disability(N=158)
Special Education Identification
Prob
abili
ty o
f Lea
ving
Ear
ly
.
Male Female
Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early: Demographic Characteristics: Guardianship
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
0.08
0.23
0.30
0.100.06
0.16
0.22
0.07
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
Both Parents (N=9,745) Single Parent (N=1,295) Non parent (N=133) Unknown (N=2,058)
Guardians
Prob
abili
ty o
f Lea
ving
Ear
ly
.
Male Female
Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early: Example of Cumulative Risk
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
0.23
0.73
0.40
0.51 0.54
0.17
0.65
0.31
0.41 0.44
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
Not Identified(N=1,223)
Behavioural (N=59) Learning Disability(N=243)
Mild IntellectualDisability (N=64)
Other Disability(N=36)
Special Education Identification
Prob
abili
ty o
f Lea
ving
Ear
ly
.
Male + Single Parent Female + Single Parent
Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early:
Gender and Credit Accumulation
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
0.39
0.02
0.34
0.02
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
Below expectation On track
Credit Accumulation: Grade 9 to Grade 11
Prob
abili
ty o
f Lea
ving
Ear
ly
. Male Female
Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early:
Gender and Number of Credits in Grade 9
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
< 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8+
No. of Credits in Grade 9
Prob
abili
ty o
f Lea
ving
Ear
ly
.
Male Female
Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early:
Gender and Number of Credits in Grade 10
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
<5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16+
No. of Credits in Grade 10
Prob
abili
ty o
f Lea
ving
Ear
ly
.
Males Females
Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early: Gender and Grade 6 EQAO Reading Result
0.23
0.15
0.080.03
0.19
0.12
0.060.02
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
Level 1 or Below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Grade 6 EQAO Reading Result
Prob
abili
ty o
f Lea
ving
Ear
ly
. Male Female
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early:
Gender and Grade 9 EQAO Math Result0.64
0.14 0.12
0.040.01
0.53
0.09 0.08
0.030.00
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
Missing/exempt Level 1 or Below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Grade 9 EQAO Math Result
Prob
abili
ty o
f Lea
ving
Ear
ly
. Male Female
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early:
Gender and Applied vs. Academic
0.07
0.24
0.21
0.05
0.180.15
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Both Academic Both Applied Mixed
Grade 9 English & Math Programs
Prob
abili
ty o
f Lea
ving
Ear
ly
. Male Female
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early:
Gender and Grade 9 Report Card, English
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Below 50 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80 and above
Grade 9 English Mark
Prob
abili
ty o
f Lea
ving
Ear
ly
.
Applied Male Applied Female Academic Male Academic Female
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early:
Gender and Grade 9 Report Card, Math
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Below 50 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80 and above
Grade 9 Math Mark
Prob
abili
ty o
f Lea
ving
Ear
ly
.
Applied Male Applied Female Academic Male Academic Female
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early:
Gender and Grade 9 Report Card, Math
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Below 50 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80 and above
Grade 9 Math Mark
Prob
abili
ty o
f Lea
ving
Ear
ly
.
Applied Male Applied Female Academic Male Academic Female
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early:
Gender and Grade 9 Attendance, Math
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 >15
No. of Missed Math Classes in Grade 9
Prob
abili
ty o
f Lea
ving
Ear
ly
.
Male Female
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early:
Gender and Grade 9 Attendance, English
Research and Assessment Services, 2009
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 >15
No. of Missed English Classes in Grade 9
Prob
abili
ty o
f Lea
ving
Ear
ly
.
Male Female
Key Findings• Key predictors of early leaving include
– Credit accumulation in grades 9 and 10– Applied vs. academic program selection in grade 9– Grade 9 English and Math grades– Grade 9 EQAO– Gender– Special education identification
• Risk is cumulative
Research and Assessment Services, 2009