Second International Conference on Early Warning (EWC-II)Bonn, 16-18 October 2003

Integrating Early Warning in Disaster Preparedness and Response in Morocco

Mohamed JALILhydraumet@casanet.net.ma

VULNERABILITY OF MOROCCO TO

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS

Vulnerability key-factors

ClimateGeomophologyPopulation and economy

Vulnerability key-factorsClimateGeomophologyPopulation and economy

Characterised by variability Long-term variability Short-time variability Space variability

Dominated by the aridity

Vulnerability key-factorsClimateGeomophologyPopulation and economy

Contrasted relief Mountains (Atlas Range, Rif heights) Coastal and west inland plains Saharan plateaux

Diversified local geography

Vulnerability key-factorsClimateGeomophologyPopulation and economy

Population 30 millions with a growth rate 1.7% 56% live in urban area (the bulk in littoral) 19% live below national poverty threshold

Economy Diversified but still dominated by

agriculture

Hydrometeorological hazards

The most remarkable and severe hazards hitting Morocco are DROUGHT and FLOODS, but

sometimes OTHER hydrometeorological events can also

become extreme and hazardous

Hydrometeorological hazards Drought FloodsOthers

Structural stress The droughts are becoming more

prolonged Severe impact on agriculture and water

res.Its impact is exacerbated in rural areas

Rainfed agriculture (traditional farming and livestock rearing)

Hydrometeorological hazards Drought FloodsOthers

Flooding is being a recurrent hazard Flash floods caused by convective storms Steady floods caused by heavy rain

Their impact is emphasised by: Local topography Land use change high population density (urban and

suburban areas)

Hydrometeorological hazards Drought FloodsOthers

Meteorological conditions also play key role in the outbreak of other

natural extreme events

EW, DISATSERS PREPAREDNESS AND

RESPONSE:flooding and drought cases

Flooding

Flood WarningFlood preparednessFlood response

Observing networks: hydrometeorological stations, remote sensing data, aerologic data

FORCASTING MODELS

Warning bulletins

Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response

Monitoring system Meteorological ground-based stations Hydrological measuring stations Radio-sounding Radar network Satellite data and imagery

Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response

Forecasts Medium range forecast Synoptical range forecast by using

ALADIN model outputs Short and Very Short range forecast

improved by using radar echo

Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response

Warning bulletins Pre-alert bulletins Alert bulletins (BMS, BMA)

Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response

Long term activities Decentralisation of water planning

governmental activity Hazard Reduction Programs using

engineering measures (protective infrastructure)

Mitigation measures (hydraulic domain regulations, afforestation, sewage master-plans, etc.)

Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response

Short term activities Real-time following up of the hydromet

situation using the guidelines of the Ministry of Equipment

ORSEC (Organisation des Secours Relief Organisation) plans by a committee co-ordinated by the Prefecture

Practical Guidelines for rainfall and flood disasters

management

Booklet issued and regularly updated by the Ministry of Equipment. The key elements are:

The organisation of material and human resources involved (duty personal, technicians, telecommunications)

The organisation of the monitoring bureau (Command Post) Forecasting organisation (weather bulletins, alerts thresholds,

warning management) Organisation and management of the intervention plan and Intervention Assessment.

Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response

After-disaster management Relief and public assistance

organisation Socio-economic assessment of the

hazard impact

Drought

Drought WarningDrought preparedness and response

Drought Warning Preparedness and response

Rainfall seasonal prediction programme Long term prediction of the precipitation Climate modelling using the statistical

correlation between the precipitation and the global climate patterns

Drought Warning Preparedness and response

Al Masifa project Implemented in partnership with

Météo_France, ONM (Algeria) and INM (Tunisia) with financial support from the EC

Prediction of the “rainfall state”( dry, normal, wet)using the relationship between SST anomalies and regional precipitation

Drought Warning Preparedness and response

Al Moubarak project An ongoing programme developed with

Oklahoma university Climate modelling using the statistical

correlation between the precipitation and the global climate patterns (NAO)

Drought Warning Preparedness and response

Institutional arrangements Conseil Supérieur de l’Eau et du Climat

(High Council of Water and Climate), Decentralisation of water planning

(water agencies) Laws and regulations (law on water,

environmental impact)

Drought Warning Preparedness and response

Mitigation and adaptation programmes Investment incentive for the modernisation of

irrigation methods and equipment Agronomic research Rural populations water supply programme Drought insurance

CONSTRAINTS AND DIFFICULTIES

Prohibitive cost of the EWS and the response measures

Geographical constraints making it difficult to deal with the whole territory

Weak co-ordination at the institutional level

Lack in public awareness and educationLack in human capabilities although

Morocco has good skilled engineers (Met., Hydraulics, agriculture, etc.), the EW management capacities are still weak.

Thank you for your kindest attention