Second International Conference on Early Warning (EWC-II) Bonn, 16-18 October 2003 Integrating Early...
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Second International Conference on Early Warning (EWC-II)Bonn, 16-18 October 2003
Integrating Early Warning in Disaster Preparedness and Response in Morocco
Mohamed [email protected]
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VULNERABILITY OF MOROCCO TO
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS
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Vulnerability key-factors
ClimateGeomophologyPopulation and economy
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Vulnerability key-factorsClimateGeomophologyPopulation and economy
Characterised by variability Long-term variability Short-time variability Space variability
Dominated by the aridity
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Vulnerability key-factorsClimateGeomophologyPopulation and economy
Contrasted relief Mountains (Atlas Range, Rif heights) Coastal and west inland plains Saharan plateaux
Diversified local geography
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Vulnerability key-factorsClimateGeomophologyPopulation and economy
Population 30 millions with a growth rate 1.7% 56% live in urban area (the bulk in littoral) 19% live below national poverty threshold
Economy Diversified but still dominated by
agriculture
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Hydrometeorological hazards
The most remarkable and severe hazards hitting Morocco are DROUGHT and FLOODS, but
sometimes OTHER hydrometeorological events can also
become extreme and hazardous
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Hydrometeorological hazards Drought FloodsOthers
Structural stress The droughts are becoming more
prolonged Severe impact on agriculture and water
res.Its impact is exacerbated in rural areas
Rainfed agriculture (traditional farming and livestock rearing)
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Hydrometeorological hazards Drought FloodsOthers
Flooding is being a recurrent hazard Flash floods caused by convective storms Steady floods caused by heavy rain
Their impact is emphasised by: Local topography Land use change high population density (urban and
suburban areas)
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Hydrometeorological hazards Drought FloodsOthers
Meteorological conditions also play key role in the outbreak of other
natural extreme events
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EW, DISATSERS PREPAREDNESS AND
RESPONSE:flooding and drought cases
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Flooding
Flood WarningFlood preparednessFlood response
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Observing networks: hydrometeorological stations, remote sensing data, aerologic data
FORCASTING MODELS
Warning bulletins
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Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response
Monitoring system Meteorological ground-based stations Hydrological measuring stations Radio-sounding Radar network Satellite data and imagery
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Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response
Forecasts Medium range forecast Synoptical range forecast by using
ALADIN model outputs Short and Very Short range forecast
improved by using radar echo
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Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response
Warning bulletins Pre-alert bulletins Alert bulletins (BMS, BMA)
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Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response
Long term activities Decentralisation of water planning
governmental activity Hazard Reduction Programs using
engineering measures (protective infrastructure)
Mitigation measures (hydraulic domain regulations, afforestation, sewage master-plans, etc.)
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Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response
Short term activities Real-time following up of the hydromet
situation using the guidelines of the Ministry of Equipment
ORSEC (Organisation des Secours Relief Organisation) plans by a committee co-ordinated by the Prefecture
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Practical Guidelines for rainfall and flood disasters
management
Booklet issued and regularly updated by the Ministry of Equipment. The key elements are:
The organisation of material and human resources involved (duty personal, technicians, telecommunications)
The organisation of the monitoring bureau (Command Post) Forecasting organisation (weather bulletins, alerts thresholds,
warning management) Organisation and management of the intervention plan and Intervention Assessment.
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Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response
After-disaster management Relief and public assistance
organisation Socio-economic assessment of the
hazard impact
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Drought
Drought WarningDrought preparedness and response
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Drought Warning Preparedness and response
Rainfall seasonal prediction programme Long term prediction of the precipitation Climate modelling using the statistical
correlation between the precipitation and the global climate patterns
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Drought Warning Preparedness and response
Al Masifa project Implemented in partnership with
Météo_France, ONM (Algeria) and INM (Tunisia) with financial support from the EC
Prediction of the “rainfall state”( dry, normal, wet)using the relationship between SST anomalies and regional precipitation
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Drought Warning Preparedness and response
Al Moubarak project An ongoing programme developed with
Oklahoma university Climate modelling using the statistical
correlation between the precipitation and the global climate patterns (NAO)
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Drought Warning Preparedness and response
Institutional arrangements Conseil Supérieur de l’Eau et du Climat
(High Council of Water and Climate), Decentralisation of water planning
(water agencies) Laws and regulations (law on water,
environmental impact)
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Drought Warning Preparedness and response
Mitigation and adaptation programmes Investment incentive for the modernisation of
irrigation methods and equipment Agronomic research Rural populations water supply programme Drought insurance
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CONSTRAINTS AND DIFFICULTIES
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Prohibitive cost of the EWS and the response measures
Geographical constraints making it difficult to deal with the whole territory
Weak co-ordination at the institutional level
Lack in public awareness and educationLack in human capabilities although
Morocco has good skilled engineers (Met., Hydraulics, agriculture, etc.), the EW management capacities are still weak.
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Thank you for your kindest attention