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© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Scottish Independence Referendum:
200 Days to Go
#KingsIpsosMORI
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Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 Days to Go Mark Diffley
Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland • 11/11/13
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No poll has ever shown a majority in favour of
independence
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
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Should Scotland be an
independent country? Yes 32%
No 57%
Undecided 11%
February 2014
Base: All certain to vote
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Not much has changed in the last two years
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
No
Yes
Undecided
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Deprivation and national identity appear to be key drivers
Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
3%
4%
12%
49%
69%
British not Scottish
More British thanScottish
Equally Scottishand British
More Scottish thanBritish
Scottish not British
Yes
British not Scottish
More British than
Scottish
Equally Scottish
and British
More Scottish than
British
Scottish not British
47
20
41
71
Most deprived areas Least deprivedareas
Yes No
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45% Scots who…
may not vote (22%)
will vote but are undecided (9%)
will vote but may change their vote (14%)
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Which way are you inclined to vote?
Undecided voters lean marginally towards ‘Yes’
Base: All undecided (159). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
Yes 39%
No 29%
Undecided 33%
All undecided voters
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What will happen afterwards?
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The referendum is less important outside Scotland
Data collected among 2,244 British adults aged 16-75 6th-11th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI
72%
17%
Scotland England/Wales
% saying referendum is important to them in 2014
Q1a/Q2a Which, if any, of the following have you done in the past 12 months? Base (n=2,600)
To what extent do you agree or disagree that
Scotland should be an independent country?
19% Agree
43% Disagree
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If Scotland votes Yes?
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If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative
impact or no impact on each of the following? The Scottish economy/ The amount of public
money available to spend in Scotland
Economic impact closely correlated with voting intention
Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th-25th February 2014
88%
8% 43%
5%
83%
28%
Yes No Undecided
73%
9%
40%
12%
75%
25%
Yes No Undecided
Scottish economy Amount of public money available
to spend in Scotland
Positive
Negative
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More likely Yes 16%
More likely No 34%
No difference 44%
If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a
negative impact or no impact on each of the following? The strength of the pound
And concerns about impact on currency
Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th-25th February 2014
25% 5% 13%
29%
68%
38%
Yes No Undecided
Strength of the
pound
Undecided
voters
How has currency union
announcement affected undecideds?
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If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a
negative impact or no impact on each of the following? The UK Economy
Voters across Britain concerned about impact on UK economy
Base: All. England & Wales data collected among 1,012 British adults aged18+1st-3rd February 2014. Scotland data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th-25th February 2014
18%
57%
England/Wales
20% 8% 15%
43% 69%
40%
Yes No Undecided
UK economy –
Scotland only UK economy – England
and Wales only
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What about the “social union”?
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12% 14%
63% 50%
Scotland England/Wales
15% 16%
47% 37%
Scotland England/Wales
If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative
impact or no impact on each of the following? Relations between Scotland and the rest of the
UK/Cultural links between Scotland and the rest of the UK
An unamicable divorce?
Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th-25th February 2014
Relations between Scotland
and the rest of the UK Cultural links between
Scotland and the rest of the UK
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If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a
negative impact or no impact on each of the following? The UK’s standing in the world
Concern that the UK will be diminished
Base: All. England & Wales data collected among 1,012 British adults aged18+1st-3rd February 2014. Scotland data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th-25th February 2014
The UK’s standing in the
world
13% 10%
51% 40%
Scotland England/Wales
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And if Scotland votes No?
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If Scotland votes NO to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a
negative impact or no impact on each of the following…?
Business as usual?
47% 46% 46% 44%
36% 35% 34%
50% 47% 45%
49%
29% 34%
50%
UK’s standing in the world
UK economy Cultural links Strength of thepound
Scottisheconomy
Relations Public money
Scotland England/Wales
Base: All. England & Wales data collected among 1,012 British adults aged18+1st-3rd February 2014. Scotland data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th-25th February 2014
% No Impact
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If Scotland votes No…
69%No impact
46%No impact
If Scotland votes Yes/No to independence, do you think this will have a positive
impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following?
Many feel the result won’t have an impact on them personally
Base: All. England & Wales data collected among 1,012 British adults aged18+1st-3rd February 2014. Scotland data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th-25th February 2014
If Scotland votes Yes…
63%No impact
20%No impact
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Thank you
mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264
This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006. © Ipsos MORI