Post on 04-Jan-2016
description
Science as a Key to Preventing Disaster
Dr. Ellen PragerEarth2Ocean, Inc.
www.earth2ocean.net
Tsunamis - Dr. Costas Synolakis, USCEarthquakes - Dr. Kate Hutton, CaltechVolcanoes - Dr. Stanley Williams, Arizona State Univ.
CHOW 2005Predicting and Preparing for
Natural Disasters
HurricanesEarthquakesTsunamisVolcanic Eruptions
Swanson, USGS
NGDC/NOAA
NGDC/NOAA
Science is providing the why, where, & how….??? When and how big
December 26, 2004 NW Indonesia• 9.0 - 9.3 Magnitude• 1300 km long rupture, 500s• 30 km depth• > 283,000 deaths• 3 - 10 m tsunami• 50 m to 1 km inland• 3 - 12 m vertical run-up, maximum 30 m in v-shaped valley
Before AfterCourtesy DigitalGlobe and StormCenter Communications
Geist, USGS
Launch for Move
1755 - Portugal1918 - Puerto Rico1929 - Grand Banks, Newfoundland1946 - Hawaii1958 - Alaska1960 - Chile1964 - Alaska
1992 - Nicaragua, Flores Island1993 - Okushiri1994 - East Java1994 - Mindoro, Kuril Islands1995 - Manzanillo1996 - Irian Jaya, Peru1998 - Papua New Guinea2004 - Sumatra
1992, NGDC/NOAA
TsunamisNot If, When!
Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Hurricanes
McCormack, 2000
HA, 1946
Triggering Mechanisms: (Why)Earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides,asteroid impacts
Open Ocean: (How)Long, low wave; fast (500 mph); little energy loss, entire water column in motion
At Shore: (How) Powerful surge or waves, variable impact, height, run-up and inland inundation
NW SumatraUSC Tsunami Group
World Seismicity 1975-1995 (Where)
Dep
th
Worldwide there are 2-3 earthquakes of 6.5 magnitude or greater each week
Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Tsunamis, Hurricanes
Mid-OceanRidge
X
Subduction Zone
After Vigil, This Dynamic Planet
USGS Puerto Rico Trench
USGS
Understanding of Why, Where, and How - Assess Risk and Plan for the Future.
Ward and Day, 2001
EarthquakesLandslidesVolcanic Eruptions
Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Hurricanes
Dr. Vasily Titov, PMEL/NOAA
Arrival TimePhuket, Thailand, NASA/JPL
< 10 m elevation20052002
Improved Understanding & Technology
Monitoring and Warning Systems(Multi-function)
Planning
Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Hurricanes
The Importance of Education
• Retreat of the sea - fast, extreme low tide
• Ground shaking
• Loud noise from offshore - bang or rushing freight train
Indonesia 2004, DIGITALGLOBE
Know the warning signs and appropriate response
Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Hurricanes
Communication, Forecasts & Emergency Response Infrastructure
Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Tsunamis
USGS
Natural hazards are unpreventable, disasters are not. With more people living in more places, the risks are escalating. But we can:
• Improve understanding and forecasts;• Assess risk, monitor, and prepare;• Create means for timely, widely disseminated warnings;• Educate about risks and appropriate response;• Put in place emergency response infrastructure
Investment, political will, education, public support,adequate workforce, technology, leadership,long-term support and maintenance
US Virgin Islands, 1867
US Virgin Islands, today