Science as a Key to Preventing Disaster

Dr. Ellen PragerEarth2Ocean, Inc.

www.earth2ocean.net

Tsunamis - Dr. Costas Synolakis, USCEarthquakes - Dr. Kate Hutton, CaltechVolcanoes - Dr. Stanley Williams, Arizona State Univ.

CHOW 2005Predicting and Preparing for

Natural Disasters

HurricanesEarthquakesTsunamisVolcanic Eruptions

Swanson, USGS

NGDC/NOAA

NGDC/NOAA

Science is providing the why, where, & how….??? When and how big

December 26, 2004 NW Indonesia• 9.0 - 9.3 Magnitude• 1300 km long rupture, 500s• 30 km depth• > 283,000 deaths• 3 - 10 m tsunami• 50 m to 1 km inland• 3 - 12 m vertical run-up, maximum 30 m in v-shaped valley

Before AfterCourtesy DigitalGlobe and StormCenter Communications

Geist, USGS

Launch for Move

1755 - Portugal1918 - Puerto Rico1929 - Grand Banks, Newfoundland1946 - Hawaii1958 - Alaska1960 - Chile1964 - Alaska

1992 - Nicaragua, Flores Island1993 - Okushiri1994 - East Java1994 - Mindoro, Kuril Islands1995 - Manzanillo1996 - Irian Jaya, Peru1998 - Papua New Guinea2004 - Sumatra

1992, NGDC/NOAA

TsunamisNot If, When!

Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Hurricanes

McCormack, 2000

HA, 1946

Triggering Mechanisms: (Why)Earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides,asteroid impacts

Open Ocean: (How)Long, low wave; fast (500 mph); little energy loss, entire water column in motion

At Shore: (How) Powerful surge or waves, variable impact, height, run-up and inland inundation

NW SumatraUSC Tsunami Group

World Seismicity 1975-1995 (Where)

Dep

th

Worldwide there are 2-3 earthquakes of 6.5 magnitude or greater each week

Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Tsunamis, Hurricanes

Mid-OceanRidge

X

Subduction Zone

After Vigil, This Dynamic Planet

USGS Puerto Rico Trench

USGS

Understanding of Why, Where, and How - Assess Risk and Plan for the Future.

Ward and Day, 2001

EarthquakesLandslidesVolcanic Eruptions

Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Hurricanes

Dr. Vasily Titov, PMEL/NOAA

Arrival TimePhuket, Thailand, NASA/JPL

< 10 m elevation20052002

Improved Understanding & Technology

Monitoring and Warning Systems(Multi-function)

Planning

Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Hurricanes

The Importance of Education

• Retreat of the sea - fast, extreme low tide

• Ground shaking

• Loud noise from offshore - bang or rushing freight train

Indonesia 2004, DIGITALGLOBE

Know the warning signs and appropriate response

Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Hurricanes

Communication, Forecasts & Emergency Response Infrastructure

Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Tsunamis

USGS

Natural hazards are unpreventable, disasters are not. With more people living in more places, the risks are escalating. But we can:

• Improve understanding and forecasts;• Assess risk, monitor, and prepare;• Create means for timely, widely disseminated warnings;• Educate about risks and appropriate response;• Put in place emergency response infrastructure

Investment, political will, education, public support,adequate workforce, technology, leadership,long-term support and maintenance

US Virgin Islands, 1867

US Virgin Islands, today