Post on 25-Feb-2016
description
Apr 22, 20231
Science and Technology Infusion PlanScience and Technology Infusion Plan
forforTropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones
Daniel MeléndezDaniel Meléndez
NWS S&T CommitteeNWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002September 17, 2002
Apr 22, 20232
OutlineOutline
• Team CompositionTeam Composition
• Vision / BenefitsVision / Benefits
• Goals / TargetsGoals / Targets
• Key Information Gaps Key Information Gaps
• Key SolutionsKey Solutions
• Outstanding R & D NeedsOutstanding R & D Needs
• SummarySummary
Apr 22, 20233
Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesTeam CompositionTeam Composition
• Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST)Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST)
• Scott Kiser (NWS/OS)Scott Kiser (NWS/OS)
• Richard Knabb (TPC)Richard Knabb (TPC)
• Miles Lawrence (TPC)Miles Lawrence (TPC)
• Xiaofan Li (NESDIS)Xiaofan Li (NESDIS)
• Frank Marks (OAR/HRD)Frank Marks (OAR/HRD)
• Morris Bender (GFDL)Morris Bender (GFDL)
• Scott Braun (NASA/GFDL)Scott Braun (NASA/GFDL)
• Gregg Engel (JTWC)Gregg Engel (JTWC)
• Naomi Surgi (NCEP/EMC)Naomi Surgi (NCEP/EMC)
• Robert Tuleya (NCEP)Robert Tuleya (NCEP)
• Frank Wells (WFO/Guam)Frank Wells (WFO/Guam)
• Hugh Willoughby (OAR/HRD)Hugh Willoughby (OAR/HRD)
Apr 22, 20234
Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesVision / BenefitsVision / Benefits
2025 Vision• 48-hr Track Forecast Error of 85 nm• 48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt
• Save Lives / Enhanced Public Safety• Improved Response Capability of Emergency Managers• Mitigate Property Loss• Economic Impact Increasingly Complex (coastal development….)
Apr 22, 20235
Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesGoals/Targets to FY 12Goals/Targets to FY 12
Existing GPRA Existing GPRA Performance MeasurePerformance Measure
FY01 SkillFY01 Skill FY07 GoalFY07 Goal FY12 Target FY12 Target
48-hr Track Error (nm)48-hr Track Error (nm) 125125 128128 9090
Other Performance Other Performance MeasureMeasure
FY01 SkillFY01 Skill FY07 FY07 TargetTarget
FY12 TargetFY12 Target
48-hr Intensity Error (kt)48-hr Intensity Error (kt) 15.915.9 15.415.4 13.913.9
On Track
Low Risk
High Risk
Apr 22, 20236
Hydrologic ServicesHydrologic Services Goals/Targets to FY 12Goals/Targets to FY 12
Existing GPRA (G) or Strategic Existing GPRA (G) or Strategic Plan (S) Performance MeasurePlan (S) Performance Measure
CurrenCurrent Skillt Skill
FY07 FY07 Goal TargetGoal Target
FY12 FY12 Target Target
48-hr Track Error (nm) (G)48-hr Track Error (nm) (G) 125125 128128 120120 9090
48-hr Intensity Error (kt) (S)48-hr Intensity Error (kt) (S) 15.915.9 15.415.4 15.415.4 13.913.9
On Track Low Risk High Risk
Apr 22, 20237
Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesKey Information Gaps (not ranked)Key Information Gaps (not ranked)
• Improved Forecasting of Improved Forecasting of Rapidly Changing StormsRapidly Changing Storms
• More Accurate Cyclone More Accurate Cyclone
Track and Intensity ForecastTrack and Intensity Forecast
• Understanding of Model Understanding of Model Guidance UncertaintyGuidance Uncertainty
• More Precise Position of More Precise Position of Circulation CenterCirculation Center
• Higher Resolution Storm Higher Resolution Storm Wind DataWind Data
Apr 22, 20238
GapGap SolutionsSolutions ImpactImpact
More Accurate Cyclone More Accurate Cyclone Track and Intensity Track and Intensity ForecastForecast
• Targeted/Adaptive ObservationsTargeted/Adaptive Observations• NOAA Aircraft Instrumentation NOAA Aircraft Instrumentation
UpgradeUpgrade• Advanced DA of Remote and In-Advanced DA of Remote and In-
Situ Atmosphere and Ocean Situ Atmosphere and Ocean Observations Observations
• Aircraft and WSR-88D Doppler Aircraft and WSR-88D Doppler radar windsradar winds
• EnsemblesEnsembles• Hurricane WRF Hurricane WRF • JHT ResultsJHT Results
• About 12% Increase in About 12% Increase in Numerical Model Numerical Model Intensity Forecast SkillIntensity Forecast Skill
• About 25% in Increase About 25% in Increase in Numerical Model in Numerical Model Track Forecast Skill Track Forecast Skill
Understanding of Understanding of Model Guidance Model Guidance UncertaintyUncertainty
•EnsemblesEnsembles•Statistical GuidanceStatistical Guidance•JHT ResultsJHT Results•TrainingTraining
• Reduced Overwarning Reduced Overwarning of Coastal Hazardsof Coastal Hazards
Tropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions
Apr 22, 20239
GapGap SolutionSolution ImpactImpactImproved Forecasting Improved Forecasting of Rapidly Changing of Rapidly Changing StormsStorms
• JHT ResultsJHT Results
• Ocean ObservationsOcean Observations
• Hurricane WRF (Improved Hurricane WRF (Improved Physics…)Physics…)
• GPS DropsondeGPS Dropsonde
• SFMRSFMR
• Saved Lives/Enhanced Saved Lives/Enhanced Public SafetyPublic Safety
• Improved Track and Improved Track and Intensity ForecastsIntensity Forecasts
• Improve Other Measures Improve Other Measures (Marine, QPF, Aviation)(Marine, QPF, Aviation)
Higher Resolution Higher Resolution Storm Wind DataStorm Wind Data
• Aircraft radar windsAircraft radar winds
• Aircraft Instrumentation Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades (Upgrades (e.g., SATCOMM…e.g., SATCOMM…))
• WSR-88D radar winds (done)WSR-88D radar winds (done)
• Improved Intensity and Improved Intensity and Track ForecastsTrack Forecasts
• Improved Storm PhysicsImproved Storm Physics
• Improved Storm-Surge Improved Storm-Surge ForecastForecast
• Improved QPFImproved QPFMore Precise Position More Precise Position of Circulation Centerof Circulation Center
•Satellite/Aircraft Remote Satellite/Aircraft Remote SensingSensing
• Reduced Track ErrorReduced Track Error
Tropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions
Apr 22, 202310
Tropical Cyclones Tropical Cyclones Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions
Current Programmatic PhaseCurrent Programmatic Phase
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1202
Adaptive Obs
*Hurricane WRF
Deployment
OTE
DTE
R&D
Observations
DA/Models
*Advanced DA of Satellite Data*Advanced DA of Satellite Data
*Aircraft Upgrades (SFMR, GPS dropsondes…) Targeted Obs*
*Oceanic DA*Oceanic DA
Enabling Process
*JHT Tech Transfer*JHT Tech Transfer
HWRF 7km
Core Init*GFS Ensembles
*Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques*Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques
*Airborne Upgrade Radar Wind DA*Airborne Upgrade Radar Wind DA
Apr 22, 202311
Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesOutstanding R&D NeedsOutstanding R&D Needs
• Rapid Intensity Changing StormsRapid Intensity Changing Storms
• Shear Effects on Track and IntensityShear Effects on Track and Intensity
• Statistical “Guidance-on-Guidance” on Model OutputStatistical “Guidance-on-Guidance” on Model Output
• Improved Data AssimilationImproved Data Assimilation
• Improved Model Physics (microphysics, air-sea fluxes…)Improved Model Physics (microphysics, air-sea fluxes…)
• Model Physics SensitivitiesModel Physics Sensitivities
• Ensemble TechniquesEnsemble Techniques
• Adaptive Observations/TargetingAdaptive Observations/Targeting
• Predictability LimitsPredictability Limits
Apr 22, 202312
Tropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones SummarySummary
R&D NeedsR&D Needs
• Rapid Intensity Changing StormsRapid Intensity Changing Storms• Shear Effects on Track & IntensityShear Effects on Track & Intensity• Statistical “Guidance-on-GuidanceStatistical “Guidance-on-Guidance• Improved Data AssimilationImproved Data Assimilation• Improved Model PhysicsImproved Model Physics• Model Physics SensitivitiesModel Physics Sensitivities• Ensemble TechniquesEnsemble Techniques• Adaptive ObservationsAdaptive Observations• Predictability LimitsPredictability Limits
• Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades
• Expand Targeted Observations
• Implement Hurricane WRF
• Data Assimilation
• Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques
• Expand Adaptive Strategies
• New Satellite Remote Sensing
Inc r
e asi
n g
Perf
orm
ance
Joint Hurricane Testbed
2007 2012 20202002
Vision
• 48-hr Track Forecast Error of 85 nm
• 48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt
Apr 22, 202313
Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesSummarySummary
• Improved track and intensity performances Improved track and intensity performances depend mostly on advances in numerical depend mostly on advances in numerical prediction/data assimilationprediction/data assimilation
• Intensity error performance is virtually “flat” – Intensity error performance is virtually “flat” – awaits significantly improved storm core awaits significantly improved storm core specification and numerical forecasting R & Dspecification and numerical forecasting R & D
Apr 22, 202314
BACKGROUND SLIDESBACKGROUND SLIDES
Tropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones
Apr 22, 202315
BackupBackup
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1954
1959
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
year
erro
r (na
utic
al m
iles)
Tropical Prediction Center Performance Measuresyearly-average official 48 hour track forecast error, Atlantic basin
Apr 22, 202316
BackupBackup
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
year
erro
r (k
nots
)Tropical Prediction Center Performance Measure
yearly-average official 48-hour intensity forecast error, Atlantic basin
Apr 22, 202317
• PublicPublic
• MediaMedia
• Federal, State, Local GovernmentFederal, State, Local Government
• DODDOD
• 53 WRS53 WRS
• State EMA’sState EMA’s
• WMO RA-IVWMO RA-IV
• MarinersMariners
• Private SectorPrivate Sector
Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesPrimary Customers/PartnersPrimary Customers/Partners
Apr 22, 202318
Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesKey Products/ServicesKey Products/Services
Apr 22, 202319
Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesS & T RoadmapS & T Roadmap
• (Insert Spreadsheet)(Insert Spreadsheet)
09-Sep-02
Parameter Accuracy Code: (#) if known, (Range) if can be estimated, (U) Unknown, (NP) Parameter not produced or applicable
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012
Technology COFS/POM Coupled ocean-atm
Geographical Domain East Coast
East coast/gulf
mexicoGlobal, regional
new regions (Alaska, Hi)
Horizontal Resolution (km) 20 km 40/ 8 reg 20 km
Veritical Domainsfc to ocean
bottomVertical Levels 19Forecast Range 48 h 5-7 days 2 w eeks > 2 w eeksOutput Frequency 24 h 24 hNumber of Runs per Day 1 (00z) 1(00z) ??
Physics impr sea-ice physics
impr. Numerics
tw o-w ay nest
Assimilation ERS-2, GPS altimeter
coupled assimilation
Data volume per run (Mb) Ratio of current computerCost to Complete ($K)O&M Budget/Year ($K)Data Availability
Assimilated at NCEP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Gateway N/ANational Centers N/A
WFOs N/A
ParametersTemperature
SalinitySfc elevation
CurrentsDerived Products
Eta/AVN fog/visibilityAVN sea ice drift
Eta/AVN ice accretion
Technology GFDL GFDL nest GFDL nest GFDL Nest HWRF HWRF HWRFGeographical Domain Atlantic/Gulf Atlantic/Gulf Atlantic/Gulf Atlantic/Gulf Atlantic/Gulf Atlantic/Gulf Atlantic/GulfHorizontal Resolution (km) 18 1/2, 1/6,1/12˚ 1/2, 1/6,1/12˚ 4 km 4 km 4 km 4 kmVeritical Domain Sfc-1mb Sfc-1mb Sfc-1mb Sfc-1mb Sfc-1 mb Sfc-1 mb Sfc-1mb Vertical Levels 42 50 50 60 70 70 70Forecast Range 72 h 72 h 72 h ?? ?? ?? ??Output Frequency 6 h 6 hr 6 hr ?? ?? ?? ??Number of Runs per Day 4 4 4 ?? ?? ?? ??
Physics 3 nest, cloud microphysics
3 nest, 2 ens. Members
4 ens. Mem (2 low res)
2 ens. Mem. 4 ens. Mem. (2 low res)
4 ens. Memb.
Assimilation Hurricane core init
Data volume per run (Mb) Ratio of current computer 0.2 1 2 12 24 48Cost to Complete ($K)O&M Budget/Year ($K)
Hurricane modeling (also global modeling)
GPS
Threshold Metadata for Numerical Prediction (Ocean)
Projected Implementation
Ocean Modeling
Eta fluxes boundary cond, Satellite altimeter, insitu &
MCSST, avhrr SST gulf w all QuikScat, FDDA
2 nest Baroclinic, Coupled ocean-atm
3-D hydrodynamic