Sandy and the Big “Climate Change” Picture

Nickitas Georgas1

1Stevens Institute of Technology

Philip Orton1, Penelope Howell2, Vincent Saba3, Alan Blumberg1, Larry Yin1

With contributions from Scott Glenn4, John Manderson5, Josh Kohut4 and collaborators

AP PHOTO/CHARLES SYKES

Observed global changes in extremes (since 1950) consistent with global

warming Special Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2012) • “It is likely that anthropogenic influences have led to warming of extreme

daily minimum and maximum temperatures at the global scale.” • “It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic influence on increasing

extreme coastal high water due to an increase in mean sea level.” • “There is medium confidence that anthropogenic influences have

contributed to intensification of extreme precipitation at the global scale.” Increased confidence for North American downpours.

But also: • Medium confidence that heat waves have increased in frequency and

duration • Our extratropical Nor’Easters tracks have started moving further north • Low confidence in any observed long-term (i.e., 40 years or more)

increases in tropical cyclone activity (i.e., intensity, frequency, duration), after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.

IPCC World Economic Scenarios

B1: Convergent, global, sustainable, service-oriented.

A1B: Converging, balanced energy, more efficient technology.

A2: Fragmented, self-oriented, growing population.

The effect on global temperatures

1.8

2.8 3.4

SST increase between 1-3˚C by 2100

• Average tropical cyclone maximum wind speed is likely to increase in the North Atlantic Hurricane basin.

• It is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged.

IPCC 2012

NOAA Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment: “We have very high confidence (>9 in 10 chance) that global mean sea level will rise at least 0.2 meters (8 inches) and no more than 2.0 meters (6.6 feet) by 2100.”

NOAA 2012

NOAA 2012

But for Relative SLR: + ~7” VLM in NE US + ~9” weakening AMOC effect (A1B) => > 1ft more by 2100

NOAA 2012

Global: Ice Sheet Loss and Ocean Warming Mid-Atlantic: Global + Subsidence + Changes in North Atlantic Circulation

1854-2006 average RSLR

NOAA 2012

Potential Climate Effects on Sandy • Sallinger et al (2012) reports that the weakening of

AMOC predicted by Yin et al (2010) is already having an impact in accelerating SLR rates in the Mid-Atlantic “Hot Spot”

• Part of the 5°F East Coast SST anomaly may have been due to manmade global warming.

Integrated system

of observing sensors

and forecast models TO OBSERVE TO PREDICT TO COMMUNICATE Weather Currents for transport Flooding/Groundings Waves Water Quality 1967 2011

NYHOPS: New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System

Davidson Laboratory Ocean Modeling and Forecasting

+ + Real time Observations

External data and models

Distributed Inflows and Effluents

www.stevens.edu/SSWS

What if Sandy had come during HW at UER/WLIS?

A scary thought for UER and LIS!

Sandy Metshift -9h

What if Sandy had come during HW at UER/WLIS?

Comparison of Sandy and Sandy@UER-HW flooding to the FEMA ABFEs.

SIT April 2013

Flooding at the Battery

Flooding at the Battery

Sandy HW ~= 1% (100yr) < Sandy < 0.2% (500yr)

Flooding at Westchester Creek Mouth

Flooding at Westchester Creek Mouth

Sandy <1% (100yr) < “SandyHW” < 0.2% (500yr)

Irene and

Sandy

=

TC Sandene?

Sandy on Steroids (Sandy with Irene’s SST)

Long Island Sound, Sandy, Climate Change, and the multiples of 3 (feet)

And so on, beyond 2100.

6 x 3 = 18ft If in 2100, under high SLR scenario: ~18.6ft MHHW

5 x 3 = 15ft If in 2100, under median SLR scenario: ~15.6ft MHHW

4 x 3 = 12ft If with 8˚ warmer, Irene SST: ~12.0ft MHHW

3 x 3 = 9ft If at previous high tide: ~10.0ft MHHW

2 x 3 = 6ft Peak Observed level during Sandy: ~6.5ft MHHW

At King’s Point, Western Long Island Sound

MHHW

Sound water* overtops the USACE hurricane barrier. Stamford suffers a 1938 or 1944. (50% more people).

Storm Climatology plus 1m SLR Changes: North Atlantic Ocean

Sandy

Lin et al. 2012

As SLR happens, flooding like Sandy’s are expected to become more frequent. By 2050, the US population that will be exposed to inundation due to an 1/100 year storm will double to nearly 9 million people

Millstone Power Plant Intake Water Temperature 1976-2011 Annual Mean (0C)

What about something closer? Like LIS. Ack.: Howell

NULL

Ship

Bottom

temperature

Bottom

complexity

Solar

elevation “Upwelling”

Sediment daylight

Butterfish Habitat Model 2.0

Combined fisherman & scientist model

Ack.: Manderson

Analyzing History to Project and Manage the Future.

Simulating the effects of climate on Long Island Sound

Physical Environment and Living Marine Resources.

PIs: Georgas, Saba, Howell, Orton, Blumberg

We will simulate the LIS physical environment from the 70s on

…with the NYHOPS high-resolution model, in full 3D physics

Howell and Auster (2012)

…and explore links between habitat changes, climate, and LMR regime shifts

…and then simulate the LIS ecoscape over the course of this century by coupling NYHOPS to IPCC-class global climate

models from GFDL to inform management and adaptation.

Thank You! Nickitas: ngeorgas@stevens.edu