FAO/OECD Workshop : Building Resilience for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agriculture sectorp g gRome, 23-24 April 2012

Risks, vulnerabilities and resilience i f li hin a context of climate change

Vincent Gitz FAOVincent Gitz, FAOAlexandre Meybeck, FAO

www.oecd.org/agriculture

Outline

• SystemsRisks in a conte t of climate change• Risks in a context of climate change

• Vulnerabilities• Resilience

L f t t i t b ild • Lessons for strategies to build resilience for adaptation to climate change

www.oecd.org/agriculture

Risk, vulnerability, resilience

• “Risk” designs here the potential of shocks and stresses to affect, in different ways, the state of systems, communities, households or individuals. Probability, severity, economic scale, time scales and direct and indirect y, y, ,costs should be taken into account.

• “Vulnerability” is the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affectedVulnerability is the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected (IPCC SREX 2011).

• “Resilience” is the ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate• “Resilience” is the ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, accommodate or recover from the effects of a hazardous event (IPCC SREX 2011)

• “Adaptive capacity” is the capacity of a system to adapt in order to be less• Adaptive capacity is the capacity of a system to adapt in order to be less vulnerable. In fact it has two dimensions: adaptive capacity to shocks (coping ability) and adaptive capacity to change.

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Systems

• Systems can be delineated according to various perspectives, including expected functions:environmental, economic or social, political and institutional.

• These perspectives are linked < sustainability.

S i diff i h • Systems in different perspectives share components.

S t b b dd d i t th • Systems can be embedded into one another, meaning that one system can be a component of a major system

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a major system.

Systems in scales and ddomains

Household and farm systems li k

• Fig1

linkages

Fig1

Systemsat at different

lscales

Types of risksypTypes of risk Potentially influenced

by climatic factors Potential economic consequences on f

Potential long termconsequences

farmers Input price increase Yes (feed) Yes, reduced income

for farmers When it affects investment (seeds, breeding stock)breeding stock)

Output price decrease

Yes Yes, reduced income for farmers

Reduce incentive for investment

Weather shocks Yes Yes Depending on type of shocks and productions

Plant pests Yes Yes, reduced yield Yes. Pest could last. Animal diseases Yes Yes reduced Yes Disease couldAnimal diseases Yes Yes, reduced

production. Loss of livestock. Potential trade barriers

Yes. Disease couldlast. Loss of productive capital. Potential tradebarriers.

Risks and Systems:Systems:

I t Impacts of a d ht drought onlivestock grazing systems

Impacts of a drought a drought

(long term)

CC: Effects on a systemy

Impacts on ecosystems

Vulnerabilities and vulnerabilityVulnerabilities and vulnerability

Vulnerability of “what” to “what”:Vulnerability of what to what :

SYSTEM orCOMPONENT(s)

which “bear” the vulnerability

DOMAIN(s)

Variable/quality/dimRISK or SET of RISKSVariable/quality/dim

ension(s) which characterize the entry of the system

SET of RISKS

in an affected state

Vulnerability at scalesVulnerability at scales

V (Territory)V (Territory)

Landscape

Farm

V (Landscape)

V (Farm)V(Farm)Farm Animal disease

Ri kV(Farm)Farm Risk

Vulnerability at scalesd ffCompounding effects

From one level to another, vulnerabilities can either : Add themselves (+) Compensate each other ( - ÷ √ ) Compensate each other ( ÷ √ ) Amplify each other ( × )

Vulnerability at scalesVulnerability at scales

V (Territory)V (Territory)

Landscape

Farm

V (Landscape)

V (Farm)V(Farm)Farm

Animal disease RiskV(Farm)Farm Risk

Vulnerability at scalesVulnerability at scales

V (Territory)V (Territory)

Landscape

Farm

V (Landscape)

V (Farm)V(Farm)Farm

Animal diseaseRisk

V(Farm)Farm

Resilience

Resilience: seed systems increase adaptive capacity

Building resilience: through timeBuilding resilience: through time

• Build adaptive capacity not only to existing risks but also to changes, in an evolving context.

• Build adaptive capacity at the same time as shocks occur: – ex-ante– during the shock– ex-post strategies to build resilienceg

Resilience

Uncertainty

Building adaptive capacity to h dd t i tchanges: address uncertainty

DiversificationDiversification

Animal genetics

Genetic resources

Comprehensive strategies to build resilience to build resilience

in a context of climate change

• Reduce, or take account of amplification effects between risks

• Organize compensation Identify/understand all the risks,

vulnerabilities, systems, dimensions, tools and their targets, and how CC act on them is necessary prior to integration in a them, is necessary prior to integration in a comprehensive approach towards resilienceresilience.

Thank You

vincent.gitz@fao.org