Security Risk Analysis and Security Risk Analysis and ManagementManagement

in the Romanian Intelligence in the Romanian Intelligence Service (SRI)Service (SRI)

Describing a past event is not intelligence analysis; it is history. True intelligence analysis is always predictive.

Robert ClarkRobert Clark

AGENDA

I. An analytical framework of dangers

II. The characteristics of risk within SRI• Romania’s risk perception• SRI’s areas of responsibility• Risk analysis matrix• Programmatic input• “Internal chemistry”• Risk exposure assessment – an example

III. SRI’s approach to risk management• Risk management challenges within SRI• SRI in crisis management• SRI in disaster management

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THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

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Level / type of knowledge

Future-related uncertainty

Probability of occurrence

Option for human action

(Non-)existence of reflexivity

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TIMELINE AFFECTING ROMANIA’S PERCEPTION OF RISK

SRI’S AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY

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RISK ANALYSIS MATRIX

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PROGRAMMATIC INPUT

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Management Strategic Vision

“INTERNAL CHEMISTRY”

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Terrorist risks

Corruption in administration and justice

Cross-border organized crime

Problems in the education sector

Macroeconomic imbalances Underground economy development

Health sector malfunctions

Problems in accessing EU fundsExtremism

Energy security risks

Critical infrastructures vulnerabilities

Espionage

Cyber threats

Foreign intelligence actions

impa

ct

probability

RISK EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT - EXAMPLE

RISK MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES WITHIN SRI

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SRI IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT

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OPERATIONAL CAPACITY

SRI IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT

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