risk analysis management SRI ISA 2012
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Transcript of risk analysis management SRI ISA 2012
Security Risk Analysis and Security Risk Analysis and ManagementManagement
in the Romanian Intelligence in the Romanian Intelligence Service (SRI)Service (SRI)
Describing a past event is not intelligence analysis; it is history. True intelligence analysis is always predictive.
Robert ClarkRobert Clark
AGENDA
I. An analytical framework of dangers
II. The characteristics of risk within SRI• Romania’s risk perception• SRI’s areas of responsibility• Risk analysis matrix• Programmatic input• “Internal chemistry”• Risk exposure assessment – an example
III. SRI’s approach to risk management• Risk management challenges within SRI• SRI in crisis management• SRI in disaster management
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THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
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Level / type of knowledge
Future-related uncertainty
Probability of occurrence
Option for human action
(Non-)existence of reflexivity
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TIMELINE AFFECTING ROMANIA’S PERCEPTION OF RISK
SRI’S AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY
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RISK ANALYSIS MATRIX
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PROGRAMMATIC INPUT
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Management Strategic Vision
“INTERNAL CHEMISTRY”
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Terrorist risks
Corruption in administration and justice
Cross-border organized crime
Problems in the education sector
Macroeconomic imbalances Underground economy development
Health sector malfunctions
Problems in accessing EU fundsExtremism
Energy security risks
Critical infrastructures vulnerabilities
Espionage
Cyber threats
Foreign intelligence actions
impa
ct
probability
RISK EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT - EXAMPLE
RISK MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES WITHIN SRI
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SRI IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT
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OPERATIONAL CAPACITY
SRI IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
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