Post on 25-May-2015
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RFID Today and in the Future
Dr Peter Harrop, Chairman p.harrop@idtechex.com
IDTechEx www.idtechex.com
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
IDTechEx
IDTechEx is an independent strategic analyst on RFID smart labels, printed electronics and smart packaging. Our core services provide:
Consultancy Publications/
Research
Conferences and Exhibitions
Clients include:
Shell Oil
Hewlett Packard
Rexam
Whirlpool Europe
Guinness UDV
Thin Film Electronics
PolyTechnos
Schiphol Airport…
• Independent market and technology research reports covering RFID, printed electronics & smart packaging topics
• Smart Labels Analyst journal, Printed Electronics Review and the world’s largest RFID case study knowledgebase
Global Conferences: USA, Europe and Asia
RFID Smart Labels
Active RFID
Printed Electronics
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IDTechExAn enabling technology may be very simple yet incredibly useful
• A wheel
• Paper
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Tag
Reader sends
signal and “reads”
response
RFID System Basics
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IDTechExRadio Frequency Identification RFID is an enabling technology
• It uses an electronic “reader” to read data at a distance on small “tags”
• RFID has few problems of obscuration, orientation, speed or reading many at a time
• RFID automates things
RFID is like the wheel or paper – it is an enabling technology found (almost) everywhere.
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IDTechExRFID is used for very different purposes
• Healthcare – anti-counterfeiting, locating people and assets
• Military – mounting campaigns previously impossible
• Retail – increased sales, reduced costs• Financial and transportation – faster, more
secure transactions• Animals – accurate, fast, disease response,
locating lost pets• Library – find lost books, automate procedures,
anti-theft
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• “CPG shrinkage is 2% - $60 billion yearly.” ECR Europe
• “75% of the cost of a retail product is getting it there.” MIT
• “Up to 20% of foods are discarded due to spoilage through the supply chain.” Food and Drug Administration
• Stockouts at retailers cost six percent of sales. One third of these are items in the retailer’s store.Procter & Gamble $180 billion yearly
The world’s supply chains are out of control
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The Consumer goods industry is $3 trillion yearly
$1 trillion of this is unnecessary
RFID can help tackle $400 billion yearly of this waste –
• Theft, fraud, misplacement, expiry, delay, manual procedures, empty shelves, not knowing what the customer wants ……….
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IDTechExRetail/ military mandates for RFID on pallets and cases – 350 million tags in 2006
Wal-Mart ($300Bn):
RFID enabled 475 stores, 1000 by year end
300 suppliers tagging cases and pallets of top products
Currently receive 3 million tagged cases per week (May 06)
Ordered 15,000 readers
Massive payback for Wal-Mart: Out of Stocks reduced by up to 48%; stores with RFID 63% more effective at replenishing items. No payback for consumer goods suppliers. RFID suppliers also losing money
Major competitive advantage for retailers
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IDTechExRetail Mandates
What does it mean for the brands?
P&G
Fusion blades – sales increase 19% by timely arrival at shelf
Hanna Candle company
90 pallets worth $12.6M went missing but were found and knock on effect for ordering
Altria Group ($97Bn), owner of Miller, Kraft, Philip Morris
“Pallet/case tagging is a pain barrier – item level tagging is our utopia” With pallets/cases RFID can be a solution looking for a problem especially low value low margin goods.
Some benefits so far but it is a cruel world of unfair share and gain
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IDTechExHealthcare is in trouble
• Taking medicine incorrectly “Medication non-compliance costs the US alone approximately $100 billion and 125,000 deaths yearly”US National Pharmaceutical Council
• Counterfeits: Pharmaceuticals 10% (In third world 30 - 40%); Tens of thousands of deaths every year
Industry estimates
• Errors:10% of hospital patients suffer an adverse event. For example, in the US, there are 20,000 mother – baby mismatches yearly USDH
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Rheum atology
Anxiety Disorders
Epilepsy
Geriatrics
Pain Managem ent
Diabetes Mellitus
Coronary Artery Disease
Depress ion
Hyperlipidem ia
Arthritis (all form s)
Migraine Headache
6. Percentage Non-Compliance
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IDTechEx
Pfizer, Purdue Pharma, GlaxoSmithKline item level tagging drugs 30 million EPC
Marks & Spencer apparel – 350M yearly from 2008 Non EPC “to save cost”
Books in libraries and retail - 55 million – mainly not EPC
RFID Market 2006 by Tag Volume Sold
Pallet/case 0.35 billion
Item 0.2 billion
Other 0.85 billion Mainly cards
Total 1.4 billion Total Value $1.22 billion
Research from “RFID Forecasts, Opportunities & Players 2006-2016” IDTechEx www.idtechex.com
Item Level Tagging - happening faster than most think - 200 million tags in 2006
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Short Range Passive RFID Examples
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Example: Gillette razor packs
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RFID Tagged Products, Cases or Pallets
EPCglobal:
• Managed by GS1
• Standardisation of EPC tag types and common infrastructure
• Over 920 sponsor companies
The Electronic Product Code (EPC) System
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Example tag:
WhereNet
Reader
TaggedAsset
TaggedAsset
TaggedAsset
TaggedAsset
TaggedAsset
100m
TaggedAsset
TaggedAsset
TaggedAsset
TaggedAsset
To “System”
TaggedAsset
TaggedAsset
Long Range (50 to 100m): - Ability to locate tags:- Resolution decreases in crowded environments.- Difficult to translate in crowded environments.
- No ability to write to tag at distance.- Expensive infrastructure (many readers, expensive processing)Examples 20,000 complete cars, Ford Dearborn. Defibrillators in hospitals
Source : Savi Technology Inc and IDTechEx
Real Time Locating Systems – locating things without them going near a reader Example: Time Delay of Arrival
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IDTechExZonal RTLS “Cell ID”
I
RF
RF RF
RF
RF Coverage
RF CoverageRadius 15m’
RF CoverageRadius 15m’
Building: 1,500sqm’
17 IR RDR, 4 RF RDR
50m’
30m
’
Radius 15m’
4m’
IR RDR RF RDR LF RDR
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IDTechExRFID Value Chain 2006
Licensors of inventions and consultants
ChipsChip +
antenna modules
Label rolls and
dispensers
System Sellers
and Integrators
CHIPTAGS
CHIPLESSTAGS –
small business as
yet
System Operators
and Facilities Management
Deposited thin filmRFID
Interrogation Electronics
Horizontal (selling to anyone) Vertical (specialising)
Software
BIGGEST ORDERS so far $425M $6000M
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New mobile phone technology is enabling users to pay at vending machines, sing karaoke, “ask” information from posters etc.
RFID enabled phones Near Field Communication
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A smart shelf system for DVDs in a Tesco supermarket in the UK that has increased sales by 4-10% due to reducing stockouts
Example: Smart Shelves trials
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FREQUENCIES – good things
125-135kHz 13.56MHz UHF GHz
Round corners 1m range Longest Long rangerange High data rate
Through most things Tolerant of metal (up to 10m Smallest, and fluids without battery) cheapest tag
No radiation problem Standardised
No reflection problem CONVEYANCES, VEHICLES, LIBRARY,LAUNDRY, ITEM LEVEL TAGGING,
Cheaper electronics BANKNOTES, ERROR PREVENTION,SECURE ACCESS, AIRPORT BAGGAGE
ANIMALS, BEER BARRELS,GAS CYLINDERS, SHOES OF MARATHON RUNNERS
Standardfor air baggage, pallets, cases
Standardfor cards, tickets,
passports, libraries,
laundry etc
StandardFor livestock
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• Concealed printable memory for item level identification.
• Compliant with RFID EPCTM Tag Data Standards*
• Integrated to the package structure
• Can be integrated to other functionalities– Tamper evidence, temperature
sensing• Short range reading method
(range up to ~mm’s)– A local electric field generated by
a reading device– HIDE is decoded in less than a
second when it passes through the field
*Defined by EPCglobal IncTM
RFID without transistorsHidden Electronic Product Code (HidE)
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IDTechExExperimental fully printed RFID labels - insulating,
semiconducting, conducting and protective patterns
Offset litho, flexo, ink jet and gravure being tried 8-128 bits read only – 52 companies working on
this
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Library 0.1 SingaporeMuseums, art galleries 0.1 EuropeLaundry 0.1 EuropeAnimals 1 Thailand, S America, US, Eur.Tires 1 EuropeTickets 1 Japan, Europe Cards 2 ChinaMilitary items 2USBlood 2 Europe/USTest tubes 2 Europe/USArchiving paperwork 2 USAir baggage 2 US, ChinaAir freight 2 USDrugs 30 USPallets, cases 40 US, EuropeBooks 50 JapanPostal 650 EuropeRetail items 10,000 Europe/Japan/US
ITEM LEVEL IN RED
Global Potential (Billion/Year) RFID Leadership
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2006 2008 2012 2015
Most likely 0.2 3 100 550
IDTechEx Forecast for Item Level Tags (Billions)
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RFID Forecasts, Players,RFID Forecasts, Players, Opportunities Opportunities 2006-20162006-2016Active RFID 2006-2016Active RFID 2006-2016Item Level RFID 2006-2016Item Level RFID 2006-2016Real Time Location Systems 2006-2016Real Time Location Systems 2006-2016
The RFID KnowledgebaseThe RFID KnowledgebaseOver 2000 case studies listed and growing every month. Covering more than 2200 companies, 81 countries
Learn from the successes and failures of others
www.idtechex.com Tel: + 44 (0) 1223 813703
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