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GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS, URBAN MODELING, SPATIAL STATISTICS 2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk:A Spatial Multicriteria Approach
Lucia Tilio, Beniamino Murgante, Francesco Di Trani,
Marco Vona, Angelo Masi
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
summary
Facing with disasters
RisksManagement
Vulnerability and Resilience
A spatial Multicriteria approach
Conclusion and directions
Resilient City
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Messina, 28 december 1908 S. G
iulia
no, 3
1 o
cto
ber
2002
L’Aquila, 6 A
pri
l2009
Potenza, 23 november 1980
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Need to beSuperHeroes
???
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
No!need tobe normal
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
…and to act!
scientists
Decision makers
Common people
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
assessment
prevention
protection
emergency
post-emergency
…
forecasting
RisksManagement
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Risk
Vulnerability
HazardExposure
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Hazard
Global map, Giardini, Gryintal, Shedlock, Zhang, 1999
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Exposure
Population density (people per km2) by country, 2006Miguel Contreras, lala land, 2007
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Vulnerability
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
VulnerabilityStructural vulnerability
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
VulnerabilityStructural vulnerability
Urb
an v
uln
era
bility
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
to Minimize Urban
Vulnerability
to Maximize Urban
Resilience
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Resilience
time
Syste
m s
tate
Se
Td
Se = Equilibrium State
Td = Disaster
And then?
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Resilience
Plannedpreparation
Spontaneousadjustments
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Resilience
Social aspects
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Resilience
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
Resilience is capacity of a system, community or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt by resisting or changing in order to reach
and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure
and is determined by the degree to which the social system is capable of organizing itself to increase its capacity of learning from past
disasters for better future protection and to improve risk reduction measures.
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Resilient CityHuman communities
Physical Systems
InstitutionsAssociations
Organizations
Citoyens
Public Buildings
Roads
Lifelines
Strategic Buildings
Bridges
Buildings
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Resilient City
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Resilient City
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Resilient City: how to
identify?
In Marsicovetere, Basilicata Region,South of Italy
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
Marsicovetere(e Villa d’Agri)
Important town in the Valley, “Val d’Agri”Seismic Area
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
spatial multicriteriamodel
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
a raster model
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
pixels are the decisionalalternatives
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
criterion mapsAccessibility
a pixel is as better as it is closer to road network
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
criterion mapsSlope
a pixel is as better as its slope is low
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
criterion mapsProximity
to urban area
a pixel is as better as it is closer to urban area
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
criterion mapsProximity to
strategicbuildings
a pixel is as better as it is closer to strategic buildings
(e.g. hospitals)
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
criterion mapsDistance from
hydrographicnetwork
a pixel is as better as it is further to hydrographic
network
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
criterion maps
a pixel is as better as it its vulnerability is low
StructuralVulnerability
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
criterion maps
a pixel is as better as it its vulnerability is low
StructuralVulnerability
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
Marsicovetere
Villa d’Agri
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
criterion maps
a pixel is as better as it its vulnerability is low
StructuralVulnerability
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
criterion maps
a pixel is as better as its seismic hazard is
low
High Seismic Hazard Areas
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
constraint mapsHigh Landslide
Risk and Flooding Areas
a pixel is removed if its landslide and flooding
risk is high
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
constraint maps
a pixel is removed if soils characteristics are not
good
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
SeismicMicrozonation
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
constraint maps
a pixel is removed if it is “occupied” by structures
and infrastructures
Areas physically occupied
by buildings and roads
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
weights definition
three scenarios
Pairwise comparison according to Saaty
A “neutral” scenario: all criteriahave same importance.
A “functional” point of view: criteria related to accessibility and built-up areas proximity are more
important than others.
A “safety” point of view: criteriarelated to natural risks are more
important than others.
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
weights definitionPairwise comparison
according to Saaty
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
resilient city
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
GEOG-AN-MOD
2011
Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi
conclusions
A first approach to resilient city identification
Some lack of information
A map to communicate resilience
The right scale?
Another multicriteria model?
How to maximize resilience
Facing wthdisasters
Risksmanagement
Vulnerabilityand Resilience
ResilientCity
Spatial MulticriteriaApproach
Conclusions and directions
More criteria
to diversify alternatives