Resilient city and seismic risk: a spatial multicriteria approach

GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS, URBAN MODELING, SPATIAL STATISTICS 2011

Resilient City and Seismic Risk:A Spatial Multicriteria Approach

Lucia Tilio, Beniamino Murgante, Francesco Di Trani,

Marco Vona, Angelo Masi

GEOG-AN-MOD

2011

Resilient City and Seismic Risk: A Spatial Multicriteria ApproachL. Tilio, B. Murgante, F. Di Trani, M. Vona, A. Masi

summary

Facing with disasters

RisksManagement

Vulnerability and Resilience

A spatial Multicriteria approach

Conclusion and directions

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Facing wthdisasters

Risksmanagement

Vulnerabilityand Resilience

ResilientCity

Spatial MulticriteriaApproach

Conclusions and directions

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Messina, 28 december 1908 S. G

iulia

no, 3

1 o

cto

ber

2002

L’Aquila, 6 A

pri

l2009

Potenza, 23 november 1980

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Need to beSuperHeroes

???

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No!need tobe normal

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…and to act!

scientists

Decision makers

Common people

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assessment

prevention

protection

emergency

post-emergency

…

forecasting

RisksManagement

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Risk

Vulnerability

HazardExposure

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Hazard

Global map, Giardini, Gryintal, Shedlock, Zhang, 1999

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Exposure

Population density (people per km2) by country, 2006Miguel Contreras, lala land, 2007

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Vulnerability

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VulnerabilityStructural vulnerability

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VulnerabilityStructural vulnerability

Urb

an v

uln

era

bility

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to Minimize Urban

Vulnerability

to Maximize Urban

Resilience

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Resilience

time

Syste

m s

tate

Se

Td

Se = Equilibrium State

Td = Disaster

And then?

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Resilience

Plannedpreparation

Spontaneousadjustments

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Resilience

Social aspects

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Resilience

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Resilience is capacity of a system, community or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt by resisting or changing in order to reach

and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure

and is determined by the degree to which the social system is capable of organizing itself to increase its capacity of learning from past

disasters for better future protection and to improve risk reduction measures.

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Resilient CityHuman communities

Physical Systems

InstitutionsAssociations

Organizations

Citoyens

Public Buildings

Roads

Lifelines

Strategic Buildings

Bridges

Buildings

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Resilient City

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Resilient City: how to

identify?

In Marsicovetere, Basilicata Region,South of Italy

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Marsicovetere(e Villa d’Agri)

Important town in the Valley, “Val d’Agri”Seismic Area

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spatial multicriteriamodel

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a raster model

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pixels are the decisionalalternatives

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criterion mapsAccessibility

a pixel is as better as it is closer to road network

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criterion mapsSlope

a pixel is as better as its slope is low

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criterion mapsProximity

to urban area

a pixel is as better as it is closer to urban area

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criterion mapsProximity to

strategicbuildings

a pixel is as better as it is closer to strategic buildings

(e.g. hospitals)

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criterion mapsDistance from

hydrographicnetwork

a pixel is as better as it is further to hydrographic

network

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criterion maps

a pixel is as better as it its vulnerability is low

StructuralVulnerability

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criterion maps



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Marsicovetere

Villa d’Agri

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criterion maps



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criterion maps

a pixel is as better as its seismic hazard is

low

High Seismic Hazard Areas

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constraint mapsHigh Landslide

Risk and Flooding Areas

a pixel is removed if its landslide and flooding

risk is high

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constraint maps

a pixel is removed if soils characteristics are not

good

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SeismicMicrozonation

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constraint maps

a pixel is removed if it is “occupied” by structures

and infrastructures

Areas physically occupied

by buildings and roads

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weights definition

three scenarios

Pairwise comparison according to Saaty

A “neutral” scenario: all criteriahave same importance.

A “functional” point of view: criteria related to accessibility and built-up areas proximity are more

important than others.

A “safety” point of view: criteriarelated to natural risks are more

important than others.

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weights definitionPairwise comparison

according to Saaty

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resilient city

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conclusions

A first approach to resilient city identification

Some lack of information

A map to communicate resilience

The right scale?

Another multicriteria model?

How to maximize resilience

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More criteria

to diversify alternatives

Resilient city and seismic risk: a spatial multicriteria approach

Business

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