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Series
香川めい・須藤康介 編
東京大学社会科学研究所
東京大学社会科学研究所研究シリーズ No.61
X市中学生パネル学力調査――第二次調査報告
61
第二次
香川めい・須藤康介 編
2017
1
.......................................................................................................... 3 1. ............................................................................................................ 32. .............................................................................................. 4 3. .............................................................................................. 5 4. ..................................................................................................... 6
1 ................................................. 15
1. ................................................................................................................ 152. .................................................................. 17 3. 1 ........................................................... 184. 2
................................................... 22 5. .................................................................................................................... 24
2 1 2 ...................... 27
1. ................................................................................................................ 27 2. ................................................................................... 283. ....................... 32 4. ....................................................................................................................... 38
3 ........................... 41
1. ................................................................................................................ 41 2. ....................................................................................... 42 3. ................... 44 4. ......................................................................................................... 51
2
4 ...................................... 55
1. ................................................................................................................ 552. ......................................................................................................... 56 3. .............................................................................................. 574. .................................................................................... 58 5. ........................................................... 59 6. ......................................................................................................... 66
5 1 ............................................................... 69
1. ................................................................................................................ 692. ......................................................................................................... 71 3. 1 ...................................................... 72 4. 1 ............................................................. 76 5. ....................................................................................................................... 81
........................................................................................................................ 83 ........................................................................................................................ 97
............................................................................................................................... 103
3
2015 X
X X3
X 2015 1600 3 6 X
2014
-1 2016 12
2015 2016 20173
52
1
891011
4
12 1 2 33
12
4
7
6
4
20173 2016
6 2 12
X 2014 6 655
A B A B AB A B
2015 1597 X
2014
2016 2576
2015
6 4 2 6
XX
5
3
6 60% 2 55%5
62
6 67.7%2 56.1% 12
33
62
-250 10
5456 2
1
6
50 106 1 2 50 10
2015
-3
12
6 2 36 1 2 3
2
6 A 650 21 65 50.1 10.156 B 648 28 71 49.9 10.386 647 23 69 50.0 10.326 A 649 19 62 49.8 10.316 B 646 29 67 50.1 10.226 644 24 66 50.0 10.271 595 10 72 49.6 10.361 595 29 66 49.5 10.141 595 12 72 49.6 10.371 596 21 67 49.5 10.441 596 36 82 49.8 9.951 596 22 71 49.5 10.382 576 10 70 49.8 10.092 576 36 72 49.8 9.882 576 13 72 49.8 10.042 575 25 65 49.7 10.062 575 39 71 49.7 9.952 575 28 68 49.7 10.03
7
62014
6
6 26 2
4-4 -7
-4 695.7% 1 91.5%
2 62 9
95.7%
91.5%
93.0%
6
1
2
1) N=5402) 6 1 p=0.000 1 2 p=0.291
8
-5 674.6% 1
42.0% 2 33.3%
-6
-66 78.0%
1 80.1%2
71.2% 7
74.6%
42.0%
33.3%
6
1
2
1) N=5402) 6 1 p=0.000 1 2 p=0.000
78.0%
80.1%
71.2%
6
1
2
1) N=5322) 6 1 p=0.396 1 2 p=0.000
9
-76 49.3% 1
48.6% 239.0%
6 26
3-8 -10
-8 682.1%
1 80.2%
49.3%
48.6%
39.0%
6
1
2
1) N=5212) 6 1 p=0.823 1 2 p=0.000
82.1%
80.2%
74.7%
6
1
2
1) N=5412) 6 1 p=0.406 1 2 p=0.008
10
6 2 74.7%7
-96
91.2%1 78.8% 2 75.6%
1
-106 96.0% 1 93.4%2 93.9% 3 9
91.2%
78.8%
75.6%
6
1
2
1) N=5332) 6 1 p=0.000 1 2 p=0.181
96.0%
93.4%
93.9%
6
1
2
1) N=5262) 6 1 p=0.054 1 2 p=0.775
11
6 26 2
4-11 -14
-116 76.5%1 71.6% 2
71.8% 1 67
-12
76.5%
71.6%
71.8%
6
1
2
1) N=5282) 6 1 p=0.033 1 2 p=0.100
84.6%
79.2%
67.4%
6
1
2
1) N=5252) 6 1 p=0.011 1 2 p=0.000
12
6 84.6% 179.2% 2 67.4% 6 2
-136 95.2%
1 93.0%2 89.8% 9 3
-146 74.3%
1 66.5%
95.2%
93.0%
89.8%
6
1
2
1) N=5412) 6 1 p=0.111 1 2 p=0.014
74.3%
66.5%
62.2%
6
1
2
1) N=5402) 6 1 p=0.002 1 2 p=0.094
13
2 62.2% 6 23
6 23
36
14
15
1 2
1 2
2007 2000 20042000
PISA Programme for International Student Assessment TIMSS Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study
2004 2007 2013
2015
1 2
251) 2015
A B
16
30 30
A B4 3
66
1 2
33
2015
17
2014
4 2007 6 2009 2 20113
1 2
33 2
1
2016 2
4
18
0 2020 50 50 100 100 200 200 300
300 400 400 1 0
Ecological Fallacy Robinson 1950
2) 2014 p.1-2
1-13)
7
3
19
11.1% 22.2%38.9% 27.8%
51-2
20
21
22
1-3 Mean
1-3
F
Mean S.D. Min. Max. F
N=2) 0.16 0.11 0.08 0.24 3.933 0.032 *N=4) 0.09 0.13 -0.03 0.23
N=7 0.04 0.15 -0.10 0.26N=5) -0.21 0.21 -0.42 0.01
N=2) 0.26 0.22 0.10 0.42 4.155 0.027 *N=4) 0.14 0.19 -0.13 0.30
N=7 0.01 0.13 -0.27 0.14N=5) -0.19 0.21 -0.50 0.05
N=2) 0.22 0.16 0.11 0.33 6.890 0.004 **N=4) 0.12 0.11 0.03 0.27
N=7 0.03 0.12 -0.08 0.22N=5) -0.22 0.18 -0.40 0.00
*** p<0.001 ** p<0.01 * p<0.05 + p<0.1
23
4)
1-4 12
15)
2
10%
0.1%
Fixed Effect Coef. S.E.1
-0.055 0.065 0.4030.000 0.000 0.355
2 -0.170 0.152 0.282-0.116 0.049 0.034 *-0.004 0.002 0.097 +0.000 0.004 0.9940.153 0.028 0.000 ***
Random Effect p -value(d.f. =13) 17.395 0.181
INTRCPT1, u 0 0.074 0.005level-1, r 0.702 0.493
p -value
*** p<0.001 ** p<0.01 * p<0.05 + p<0.1
24
1 2
1- 1-2
2015
1) 25
URL
http://www.nier.go.jp/13chousakekkahoukoku/kannren_chousa/hogosya_chousa.html 2016 12
31
2) HLM ver.7 Raudenbush et. al. 2011
3)
4)
1-5
25
5)
2015
26
pp.38-69
2004
2007 80
pp.23-39
2015 82 4
pp.583-593
Raudenbush Spephen, Anthony Brik, Yuk Fai Cheong, Richard Congdon, and Mathilda du Toit, 2011,
HLM7: Hierarchical Linear and Nonlinear Modeling, Scienctific Software International.
Robinson William S., 1950, “Ecological correlations and the behavior of individuals” American
Sociological Review Vol.15 pp.351-57.
2014
2013
2014
N MEAN S.D. MIN. MAX.1
535 0.00 0.80 -3.31 2.20535 -0.01 1.04 -3.05 2.83535 0.00 0.72 -2.90 2.10535 0.54 0.50 0.00 1.00535 82.43 103.78 0.00 400.00
218 0.72 0.46 0.00 1.0018 8.83 10.36 1.00 33.0018 34.28 4.99 16.00 39.0018 2.17 0.99 1.00 4.00
26
27
1 2
2
2
1 2
3
1 2
2 1
19901996
2016
1995
2
28
2009 2009
2
1 22-1 2-2
29
2 1 2
5
1 2
1 26
2-3 61) 2
6
2-3 1 2
1.50.23 3
1 2
1 2 22-4 1
2
30
1 2
2-41 2
481 2 28 3
39 4 2 1
11 2
1
2 66 71
12
2 34 28 2239
1 23
1 2
6 2)
2-5 2-5 230 1
48.7% 5.0% 0.8% 10.9% 34.5% 100.0% (119)21.7% 28.3% 6.7% 15.0% 28.3% 100.0% (60)13.8% 9.2% 40.0% 13.8% 23.1% 100.0% (65)26.3% 5.3% 7.0% 22.8% 38.6% 100.0% (57)15.9% 3.3% 8.2% 6.5% 66.1% 100.0% (245)24.5% 7.3% 10.1% 11.0% 47.1% 100.0% (546)
p=0.036
2
31
2 3 21
218 214
1 2 2
10
2-6 12
32
2 1 22
33
2-6 3
2-7 2-8
50.1
15.4% 8.7% 31.8% 15.9% 17.4% 10.8% (187)7.3% 11.6% 29.3% 14.6% 19.5% 17.7% (164)8.6% 10.7% 27.8% 11.2% 17.6% 24.1% (195)
10.6% 10.3% 29.7% 13.9% 18.1% 17.4% (546)p=0.035
17.3% 9.1% 26.9% 18.3% 16.8% 11.7% (158)7.4% 11.1% 35.8% 12.1% 20.5% 13.2% (190)6.3% 10.8% 25.9% 10.1% 17.1% 29.7% (197)
10.6% 10.3% 29.7% 13.8% 18.2% 17.4% (545)p=0.000
34
2-92-10 2-11
22.1% 3.9% 27.3% 19.5% 11.7% 15.6% (77)11.6% 8.1% 31.4% 14.3% 20.9% 13.6% (258)5.3% 15.4% 27.9% 11.5% 16.8% 23.1% (208)
10.6% 10.3% 29.7% 13.9% 18.1% 17.4% (543)p=0.000
11.5% 1.3% 28.2% 20.5% 20.5% 17.9% (75)12.1% 10.6% 32.8% 13.6% 15.8% 15.1% (265)8.5% 13.5% 26.0% 12.0% 20.0% 20.0% (200)
10.7% 10.3% 29.7% 14.0% 18.0% 17.3% (543)p=0.066
21.8% 6.7% 27.7% 21.0% 10.1% 12.6% (119)7.7% 8.7% 31.4% 13.5% 21.3% 17.4% (207)7.3% 13.8% 28.9% 10.6% 19.3% 20.2% (218)
10.7% 10.3% 29.6% 14.0% 18.0% 17.5% (544)p=0.000
35
0.1 10
2-7 2-8
2 3
12 13 7
2-12
2-13 2-14
10.6% 10.8% 28.9% 13.8% 18.2% 17.8% (501)11.4% 4.5% 36.4% 15.9% 18.2% 13.6% (44)10.6% 10.3% 29.5% 13.9% 18.2% 17.4% (545)
p=0.725
36
2 1
2
2-15 2-16
2-15 2
9.6% 11.0% 29.8% 13.5% 18.8% 17.3% (446)15.2% 7.1% 28.3% 16.2% 15.2% 18.2% (99)10.6% 10.3% 29.5% 13.9% 18.2% 17.4% (545)
p=0.459
10.7% 10.7% 28.5% 14.3% 18.0% 17.8% (512)9.4% 3.1% 46.9% 9.4% 18.8% 12.5% (32)
10.7% 10.3% 29.6% 14.0% 18.0% 17.5% (544)p=0.289
11.6% 10.0% 27.9% 16.3% 18.1% 16.0% (430)6.3% 10.8% 36.9% 5.4% 18.0% 22.5% (111)
10.5% 10.2% 29.8% 14.0% 18.1% 17.4% (541)p=0.013
37
5
2-16
0.1
2 1 2
3.0% 8.0% 35.0% 16.0% 8.0% 30.0% (100)6.0% 21.0% 26.0% 6.0% 28.0% 13.0% (100)
11.8% 10.3% 33.8% 4.4% 27.9% 11.8% (68)17.8% 7.8% 23.9% 18.7% 18.3% 13.5% (230)11.6% 10.8% 27.9% 13.7% 19.5% 16.5% (543)
p=0.000
38
2-17
2-18 2-17 2-18 5
0.1
1 2
1 22
11.5% 12.1% 26.6% 12.6% 20.3% 16.8% (364)9.5% 6.5% 36.7% 15.4% 13.0% 18.9% (169)
10.9% 10.3% 29.8% 13.5% 18.0% 17.4% (533)p=0.032
12.7% 12.4% 22.9% 16.2% 20.3% 15.6% (315)7.8% 7.4% 39.0% 10.8% 15.2% 19.9% (231)
10.6% 10.3% 29.7% 13.9% 18.1% 17.4% (546)p=0.000
39
1 22 1
1 2
1 2
3
2
3
1 2
21 2
2
40
3
1) 1
3
2) 1
1996
.
2009 46-73
2016 .
2009
1995 .
41
1 2
1 2
1 2
1 1988 2006
32006
=2006 224
42
2012
3
Matsuoka 2014 2
6 2
3
43
3-1 1 2
1 2
1 87.0%2 86.3%1 88.9%2 84.1%1 59.0%2 57.4%1 33.3%2 22.4%1 80.3%2 71.2%1 82.6%2 69.4%
1 48.4%2 39.2%
543
560
559
561
559
552
552
-9.2%
p=.755
**
p=.523
***
***
***
***
-0.7%
-4.8%
-1.6%
-10.9%
-9.1%
-13.2%
* p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p< 0.001
44
3 210
2
(1)
3 3-22 1
* p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p< 0.001
1.000 0.167 *** -0.038 0.023 0.0240.167 *** 1.000 0.123 ** 0.035 0.076 +
-0.038 0.123 ** 1.000 0.050 0.133 **0.023 0.035 0.050 1.000 0.112 *0.024 0.076 + 0.133 ** 0.112 * 1.0000.019 0.044 0.155 *** 0.053 0.193 ***0.069 0.034 0.156 *** 0.013 0.218 ***
-0.014 0.085 * 0.117 ** 0.227 *** 0.169 ***-0.046 0.010 0.081 + 0.115 ** 0.0520.038 0.042 0.119 ** 0.085 * 0.107 *0.018 0.045 0.052 0.077 + 0.072 +0.046 -0.048 0.040 0.044 0.065
45
3
1 2 Pooled OLS3-3 3-4
5% 0.110%
10
10
46
47
1.17
9*
0.48
90.
303
0.49
9-0
.390
0.47
6-0
.524
0.48
7-0
.299
0.33
50.
565
+0.
342
1.14
1**
*0.
320
1.03
7**
0.32
7-0
.331
0.34
60.
482
0.35
40.
670
+0.
365
0.63
9+
0.37
30.
196
0.30
3-0
.135
0.30
9-0
.445
0.62
00.
999
0.63
444
.930
***
1.68
943
.763
***
1.72
7
F
0.10
3*
0.04
5-0
.042
0.04
90.
155
**0.
059
0.18
6**
*0.
044
0.08
4+
0.04
80.
345
***
0.05
7-0
.014
0.03
10.
290
***
0.03
40.
077
+0.
040
0.00
70.
029
-0.0
490.
032
-0.0
250.
039
0.13
5**
*0.
032
0.08
0*
0.03
50.
086
*0.
042
0.09
1**
0.03
30.
105
**0.
037
0.05
80.
044
0.05
4+
0.02
80.
017
0.03
10.
076
*0.
036
-0.1
64**
0.05
7-0
.166
**0.
063
-0.0
340.
074
1.39
5**
*0.
155
1.78
0**
*0.
170
1.77
7**
*0.
204
F
0.15
20.
145
p=.0
000.
141
0.14
8p=
.000
p=.0
00
0.14
80.
154
1028
1016
1024
1028
0.03
30.
026
p=.0
00
1027
0.02
90.
022
p=.0
00
* p
< 0.
05,
**
p <
0.01
, *
** p
< 0.
001
48
10
1 23-5
3-6 F
1 2
(2)
49
1 2 -28.95 21.00 0.06 1 2 -20.87 20.32 -0.14
1 2 -3 3 -0.22
1 2 -3 3 -0.34
1 2 -5 4 -0.15
12
-3 3 -0.11
12
-3 3 -0.18
1 2 -3 3 -0.05
12
-3 3 -0.26
1 2 -3 3 -0.37
1 2 -3 3 -0.21
1 2 -3 3 -0.21
50
0.
046
0.40
10.
212
0.37
20.
691
+0.
391
-0.0
380.
362
-0.1
290.
304
0.46
7+
0.28
1-0
.347
0.29
4-0
.253
0.27
20.
103
0.31
80.
292
0.29
40.
114
0.35
30.
142
0.32
80.
354
0.31
7-0
.430
0.29
40.
214
0.34
5-0
.230
0.32
0
F
0.09
00.
055
-0.0
300.
058
0.14
1*
0.06
50.
106
*0.
053
-0.0
770.
057
0.21
0**
0.06
30.
048
0.04
10.
207
***
0.04
40.
115
*0.
049
0.03
30.
040
0.03
70.
043
0.01
30.
048
0.05
70.
043
0.05
70.
047
0.03
90.
051
0.00
40.
048
0.06
60.
052
0.00
70.
057
-0.0
200.
043
-0.0
070.
047
0.05
70.
052
-0.1
66**
*0.
047
-0.2
94**
*0.
050
-0.0
370.
056
F0.
025
0.04
50.
065
p<0.
01p=
.000
p=.0
00
514
502
510
0.03
80.
058
0.07
8
p=.4
21p=
.391
0.01
40.
014
0.00
00.
001
513
514
* p
< 0.
05,
**
p <
0.01
, *
** p
< 0.
001
51
1 2
1 2
Pooled OLS
52
1 2
Pooled OLS
1)
2)
1
53
Coleman, James S., 1988, “Social Capital in the Creation of Human Capital”, American Journal of
Sociology, vol.94. 2006
pp.205-238 .
Matsuoka, Ryoji, 2014, “An Empirical Investigation of Relationships between Junior High School
Students Family Socioeconomic Status, Parental Involvement, and Academic Performance in
Japan”, Sociological Theory and Method ( ), vol.29 No.1, pp.147-165.
2006
pp.239-241
2012
pp.52-89
54
55
1 2
1
2
1 2
2 1 32013
19931989
2014
2005
Cohen 2002
56
1
1 2
73 3.5 4
4.5 0
4
4
1 4 2 2
4
4
44
4 1 2
1 2
57
12 t 4-1
1 2
4-2
SNS
1 21 2 0.537 1
2 0.577 1 2
t1 2.0162 1.8821 1.1032 1.1481 1.3372 1.715
0.045 p=0.324 (561)
-0.135 p=0.004 (557)
0.378 p=0.000 (545)
1.000 0.133 0.0821.000 0.182
1.000
0.1541
58
0.577 1 22
1
1 2
1 2
4-3
1 2
27.6%
12.4% 49.6% 61.5%
4-4
1 78.1%2 71.0%1 83.5%2 76.0%1 84.9%2 74.7%1 73.3%2 60.6%
-12.7 p=0.000 (559)
p=0.000 (550)-10.2
p=0.001 (562)
-7.5 p=0.000 (550)
-7.1
59
1 2
1 1
1
2 4-5 4-7
1 90.3%2 89.5%1 67.8%2 66.5%1 73.9%2 75.9%1 25.0%2 20.1%
2.0 p=0.413 (555)
-4.9 p=0.018 (547)
-0.7 p=0.731 (554)
-1.2 p=0.597 (562)
21.9% 69.0% 9.0% 100.0% (155)13.3% 77.3% 9.5% 100.0% (211)14.7% 77.5% 7.9% 100.0% (191)16.2% 75.0% 8.8% 100.0% (557)
0.073p=0.218
V
60
18.0% 78.0% 4.0% 100.0% (150)10.7% 81.0% 8.3% 100.0% (205)15.7% 77.5% 6.8% 100.0% (191)14.5% 78.9% 6.6% 100.0% (546)
p=0.182V 0.075
19.2% 74.8% 6.0% 100.0% (151)12.1% 81.6% 6.3% 100.0% (206)19.7% 72.9% 7.4% 100.0% (188)16.7% 76.7% 6.6% 100.0% (545)
p=0.218V 0.071
23.4% 67.5% 9.1% 100.0% (154)22.9% 64.3% 12.9% 100.0% (210)25.1% 64.4% 10.5% 100.0% (191)23.8% 65.2% 11.0% 100.0% (555)
p=0.814V 0.038
13.9% 78.0% 8.1% 100.0% (173)17.0% 72.5% 10.5% 100.0% (229)17.0% 75.5% 7.5% 100.0% (159)16.0% 75.0% 8.9% 100.0% (561)
p=0.705V 0.045
61
13.7% 79.2% 7.1% 100.0% (168)12.6% 81.2% 6.3% 100.0% (223)17.1% 75.3% 7.6% 100.0% (158)14.2% 78.9% 6.9% 100.0% (549)
p=0.716V 0.043
16.2% 77.2% 6.6% 100.0% (167)19.3% 75.0% 5.7% 100.0% (228)13.6% 78.6% 7.8% 100.0% (154)16.8% 76.7% 6.6% 100.0% (549)
p=0.626V 0.049
24.4% 66.9% 8.7% 100.0% (172)23.8% 66.5% 9.7% 100.0% (227)22.0% 62.9% 15.1% 100.0% (159)23.5% 65.6% 10.9% 100.0% (558)
p=0.417V 0.060
18.7% 73.0% 8.3% 100.0% (230)14.4% 76.7% 8.9% 100.0% (202)12.4% 77.0% 10.6% 100.0% (113)15.8% 75.2% 9.0% 100.0% (545)
p=0.553V 0.053
62
V0.1
2
4-8 4-10
14.7% 77.8% 7.6% 100.0% (225)13.1% 81.3% 5.6% 100.0% (198)14.4% 78.4% 7.2% 100.0% (111)14.0% 79.2% 6.7% 100.0% (534)
p=0.900V 0.031
19.2% 73.7% 7.1% 100.0% (224)14.6% 80.3% 5.1% 100.0% (198)17.9% 73.2% 8.9% 100.0% (112)17.2% 76.0% 6.7% 100.0% (534)
p=0.426V 0.059
23.2% 64.9% 11.8% 100.0% (228)23.3% 68.8% 7.9% 100.0% (202)27.4% 59.3% 13.3% 100.0% (113)24.1% 65.2% 10.7% 100.0% (543)
p=0.370V 0.061
63
8.7% 86.7% 4.7% 100.0% (150)7.1% 83.9% 9.0% 100.0% (211)6.3% 88.9% 4.8% 100.0% (189)7.3% 86.4% 6.4% 100.0% (550)
p=0.355V 0.065
13.5% 71.0% 15.5% 100.0% (155)10.9% 79.1% 10.0% 100.0% (211)12.6% 79.1% 8.4% 100.0% (191)12.2% 76.8% 11.0% 100.0% (557)
p=0.239V 0.072
16.3% 69.9% 13.7% 100.0% (153)11.5% 77.4% 11.1% 100.0% (208)10.5% 71.1% 18.4% 100.0% (190)12.5% 73.1% 14.3% 100.0% (551)
p=0.134V 0.081
16.6% 76.2% 7.3% 100.0% (151)13.2% 78.4% 8.3% 100.0% (204)11.7% 78.7% 9.6% 100.0% (188)13.6% 77.9% 8.5% 100.0% (543)
p=0.723V 0.044
64
5.9% 87.0% 7.1% 100.0% (169)8.0% 86.7% 5.3% 100.0% (226)7.6% 84.8% 7.6% 100.0% (158)7.2% 86.3% 6.5% 100.0% (553)
p=0.809V 0.037
13.9% 77.5% 8.7% 100.0% (173)12.7% 73.8% 13.5% 100.0% (229)9.4% 81.1% 9.4% 100.0% (159)
12.1% 77.0% 10.9% 100.0% (561)p=0.341
V 0.065
12.2% 76.2% 11.6% 100.0% (172)12.5% 73.2% 14.3% 100.0% (224)12.7% 69.6% 17.7% 100.0% (158)12.5% 73.1% 14.4% 100.0% (554)
p=0.629V 0.049
14.7% 75.9% 9.4% 100.0% (170)13.6% 78.7% 7.7% 100.0% (221)11.6% 79.4% 9.0% 100.0% (155)13.4% 78.0% 8.6% 100.0% (546)
p=0.883V 0.032
65
V
8.4% 85.5% 6.2% 100.0% (227)7.5% 85.6% 7.0% 100.0% (201)5.4% 88.3% 6.3% 100.0% (111)7.4% 86.1% 6.5% 100.0% (539)
p=0.909V 0.032
11.3% 76.1% 12.6% 100.0% (230)11.9% 77.2% 10.9% 100.0% (202)14.2% 77.9% 8.0% 100.0% (113)12.1% 76.9% 11.0% 100.0% (545)
p=0.732V 0.043
11.8% 74.7% 13.5% 100.0% (229)14.6% 71.4% 14.1% 100.0% (199)10.8% 73.0% 16.2% 100.0% (111)12.6% 73.1% 14.3% 100.0% (539)
p=0.819V 0.038
13.9% 76.7% 9.4% 100.0% (223)14.1% 77.4% 8.5% 100.0% (199)10.9% 81.8% 7.3% 100.0% (110)13.3% 78.0% 8.6% 100.0% (532)
p=0.882V 0.035
66
0.1
3
1 2
1
1991
2004
4
2004
67
1)
2) 10000
3)
DS PS4
4) 2016 12
4 3
6 11
4-11
2004 vs.
pp.65-78.
Cohen,S 2002 Folk Devils and Moral Panics 3rd edition Taylor and Francis.
2014
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1
2 3
68
1991
1989
2016 2013-2015 http://www.nier.go.jp/shido/shienshiryou/
2005
2004
pp.119-132.
1993
pp.237-251.
2013
69
2016
1
11
2
1
1
1 2 21
1 1 2006
1992
2016 1
5-1 2016 1
1
70
5-11
1
1) 5-2
5-21
1
11
1 2007 1
48.3% 51.7% 100.0% (439)65.1% 34.9% 100.0% (109)51.6% 48.4% 100.0% (548)
p=0.002V 0.135
42.5% 57.5% 100.0% (289)59.2% 40.8% 100.0% (292)50.8% 49.2% 100.0% (581)
p=0.000V 0.167
71
11
23 4 1
5
5-31
1
1
( )
3
72
1 1
2)
5-4 5-6
34.5% 65.5% 100.0% (290)14.6% 85.4% 100.0% (280)24.7% 75.3% 100.0% (570)
1
1
p=0.000V 0.230
25.3% 74.7% 100.0% (269)13.4% 86.6% 100.0% (276)19.3% 80.7% 100.0% (545)
1
p=0.000V 0.151
2
8.7% 73.5% 17.8% 100.0% (264)8.2% 83.0% 8.9% 100.0% (270)8.4% 78.3% 13.3% 100.0% (534)
p=0.008V 0.134
1
73
5-4 12 5-52 1
V 0.23 0.1511 2 5-6
1 17.8%
1 5-7 5-9
19.4% 80.6% 100.0% (294)14.4% 85.6% 100.0% (285)16.9% 83.1% 100.0% (579)
p=0.121V 0.067
1
1
22.2% 77.8% 100.0% (270)19.6% 80.4% 100.0% (276)20.9% 79.1% 100.0% (546)
1
p=0.463V 0.033
2
14.1% 74.0% 11.9% 100.0% (269)13.8% 77.8% 8.4% 100.0% (275)14.0% 75.9% 10.1% 100.0% (544)
p=0.380V 0.060
1
74
5-7 5-8 1
V 0.15-9 1
1
1
5-10 5-12
72.9% 27.1% 100.0% (295)68.5% 31.5% 100.0% (276)70.7% 29.3% 100.0% (574)
p=0.271V 0.049
1
1
87.4% 12.6% 100.0% (270)92.4% 7.6% 100.0% (276)89.9% 10.7% 100.0% (546)
1
p=0.064V 0.083
2
5.9% 74.8% 19.3% 100.0% (270)3.7% 69.5% 26.8% 100.0% (269)4.8% 72.2% 23.0% 100.0% (539)
p=0.077V 0.098
1
75
5-10 1
25-11 10% 1
1 2 5-121
1 5-13 5-15
78.3% 21.7% 100.0% (295)80.8% 19.2% 100.0% (286)79.5% 20.5% 100.0% (581)
1
1
p=0.474V 0.031
72.0% 28.0% 100.0% (271)78.6% 21.4% 100.0% (276)75.3% 24.7% 100.0% (547)
1
p=0.075V 0.077
2
15.1% 77.5% 7.4% 100.0% (271)12.3% 78.3% 9.4% 100.0% (276)13.7% 77.9% 8.4% 100.0% (547)
p=0.487V 0.052
1
76
5-13 5-14 1
5-15
1
11
2
1 1
15-16 5-18
5-16 1 88.7%1
91.6% 25-17 1
91.6% 8.4% 100.0% (287)85.6% 14.4% 100.0% (278)88.7% 11.3% 100.0% (565)
p=0.025V 0.095
1
1
77
11
2 5-18 1
11
5-19 5-24
94.1% 5.9% 100.0% (270)89.1% 10.9% 100.0% (276)91.6% 8.4% 100.0% (546)
2
1
p=0.045V 0.089
7.3% 87.0% 5.7% 100.0% (262)10.0% 84.4% 5.6% 100.0% (270)8.7% 85.7% 5.6% 100.0% (532)
p=0.537V 0.049
1
33.1% 24.2% 42.7% 100.0% (293)32.2% 25.2% 42.7% 100.0% (286)32.6% 24.7% 42.7% 100.0% (579)
p=0.960V 0.013
1
1
78
28.8% 38.0% 33.2% 100.0% (271)26.0% 35.7% 38.3% 100.0% (277)27.4% 36.9% 35.8% 100.0% (548)
1
p=0.464V 0.053
2
21.2% 60.6% 18.2% 100.0% (269)17.0% 66.1% 17.0% 100.0% (277)19.1% 63.4% 17.6% 100.0% (546)
p=0.360V 0.061
1
39.4% 47.0% 13.6% 100.0% (287)38.4% 45.6% 16.0% 100.0% (281)38.9% 46.3% 14.8% 100.0% (568)
p=0.735V 0.034
1
1
35.6% 49.3% 14.8% 100.0% (270)36.8% 48.9% 14.3% 100.0% (272)36.2% 49.3% 14.6% 100.0% (542)
1
p=0.964V 0.013
2
79
1
V 0.1 1
2016
11
5-25 5-30
17.9% 61.1% 21.0% 100.0% (262)20.8% 60.2% 19.0% 100.0% (269)19.4% 60.6% 20.0% 100.0% (531)
p=0.657V 0.040
1
27.9% 37.4% 34.7% 100.0% (294)31.8% 33.6% 34.6% 100.0% (286)29.8% 35.5% 34.7% 100.0% (579)
p=0.507V 0.048
1
1
29.3% 36.7% 34.1% 100.0% (270)30.3% 32.1% 37.6% 100.0% (277)29.8% 34.4% 35.8% 100.0% (547)
1
p=0.513V 0.049
2
80
19.0% 65.4% 15.6% 100.0% (269)16.3% 65.3% 18.4% 100.0% (277)17.6% 65.4% 17.0% 100.0% (546)
p=0.560V 0.047
1
35.5% 39.0% 25.4% 100.0% (287)27.1% 43.1% 29.9% 100.0% (281)31.3% 41.0% 27.6% 100.0% (568)
p=0.088V 0.092
1
1
42.2% 35.9% 21.9% 100.0% (270)37.0% 40.7% 22.3% 100.0% (273)39.6% 38.3% 22.1% 100.0% (543)
1
p=0.422V 0.057
2
27.5% 59.5% 13.0% 100.0% (262)27.4% 61.1% 11.5% 100.0% (270)27.4% 60.3% 12.2% 100.0% (532)
p=0.868V 0.024
1
81
1
V 0.11 5-28 10%
12
5-29 142.2%
5-25 5-26 5-271
11
1 2 21
1 2
1
1 12
1
11 1
11
82
1
1
1
1
1)
1
2)
, 1992,
, , pp.152-178
, 2006,
, 2007,
21 COE , , pp.81-97
, 2016, 1 6 1
X
, No.60, pp.81-98
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
2016 2
2 22 2 2 2 3
2 2 3 5100
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
2017 年 3月 31日発行 （非売品）
東京大学社会科学研究所研究シリーズNo,61
Ｘ市中学生パネル学力調査――第二次調査報告
香川めい・須藤康介 編著
発行所 〒 113-0033 東京都文京区本郷 7-3-1
TEL：03-5841-4908 FAX：03-5841-4905
東京大学社会科学研究所
印刷所 三鈴印刷株式会社
［付記］
本報告書は、日本学術振興会の 2015 ～ 2017 年科学研究費助成事業基盤研究Ｃ「学校教育
が学力・学習意欲に与える因果的効果―Ｘ市中学生悉皆パネル調査から―」（研究課題番号：
15K04377、研究代表：須藤康介）の研究成果の一部である。
執筆者一覧
香川めい 東京大学社会科学研究所 特任助教
須藤康介 明星大学教育学部 助教
中西啓喜 早稲田大学人間科学学術院 助教
小黒恵 東京大学大学院教育学研究科 博士課程
豊永耕平 東京大学大学院教育学研究科 修士課程
Edited by Mei KAGAWA and Kosuke SUDO
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO
ISS Research Series No. 61
Panel Survey on Academic Achievement of Junior High School Students in X City:Second Wave Report