1

December 5, 2019

Regional Planning Update

• 4.2 million people

• 2.3 million jobs

• 4 counties

• 82 cities and towns

• Urban and rural

• 6400 square miles

• 1000 square miles urbanized

Central Puget Sound Region

2

Puget Sound Regional CouncilWhat we do• Planning: growth, economy,

transportation

• Federal transportation funds

($240 million/year)

• Regional data and forecasts

• Forum for regional issues

Our members• Cities, Counties, Ports, Transit

• State Agencies and Tribal Governments

Executive Bruce DammeierPierce County - President

Councilmember Claudia BalducciKing County - Vice President

Today’s Meeting

Growth Trends

59,200 62,300

49,300 50,100

74,200

2014 to 2015 2015 to 2016 2016 to 2017 2017 to 2018 2018 to 2019

Source: ESD, WA Employment Estimates (seasonally adjusted) July 2019

• 74k wage & salary jobs were added to the region last year (3.5% increase)

• Over 464k jobs have been added to the region since 2010

Highest annual total in 5 years

Regional Job Growth Surge

59,200 62,300

49,300 50,100

74,200

30,10033,800

31,000 28,900

10,300

2014 to 2015 2015 to 2016 2016 to 2017 2017 to 2018 2018 to 2019

Source: ESD, WA Employment Estimates (seasonally adjusted) – July 2019

• Regional employment increase accounted for over 88% of the statewide total increase last year

• Regional employment accounts for 69% of the statewide total from 2014-2019

WA Job Growth Outside Region Slows

47,900

25,500

63,600

16,100

38,300

63,300

86,300

81,800

67,900

68,700

00-01 02-03 04-05 06-07 08-09 10-11 12-13 14-15 16-17 18-19

• Regional population of 4.20 million in 2019

• 68,700 added to region in 2018-19 (1.7% increase)

• Almost 368k new people have been added to the region in the past 5 years (9.4% increase)

Population Growth Remains StrongAnnual Population Change in the Central Puget Sound

Source: OFM, April 1, 2019 Population of Cities, Towns and Counties

21,800 22,10025,100 25,800

22,900 23,400 23,50021,500

20,900

27,400

14,100

16,900

43,800

14,900

2,800 2,7001,900

15,000

31,200

39,900

62,700

59,300

46,500

47,800

00-01 02-03 04-05 06-07 08-09 10-11 12-13 14-15 16-17 18-19

Natural Change

Net Migration

• Natural changes in population account for 21k – 24k new residents per year

• Migration continues to outpace natural population changes

• Since 2010, 60% of the region’s population growth has been from migration

Annual Population Change by Component

Migration Still Driving Population Growth

Source: OFM, Components of April 1 Population Change

• The region's housing stock has expanded by nearly 150,000 units since 2012

• Housing production has averaged 21,300 units per year since 2012

2018: Highest Level of Housing Production in 20 years

Recent Growth in Housing Production

Source: OFM, April 1, 2019 Population of Cities, Towns and Counties & April 1, 2019 Postcensal Estimates of Housing

22,700

25,100

18,200

9,900

23,40024,800

27,500

47,900

25,500

63,600

16,100

38,300

63,300

86,300

81,800

67,900

68,700

00-01 02-03 04-05 06-07 08-09 10-11 12-13 14-15 16-17 18-19

Housing Production and Population Growth

Source: OFM, April 1, 2019 Population of Cities, Towns and Counties & April 1, 2019 Postcensal Estimates of Housing

21,300 units (X) 2.5 People/Household

Enough housing for 53,250 people

• Production last year could house 68,750 people

Availability of Affordable Housing Limited

Source: Dupre + Scott

2017

2016

2015

2014

+ 30%

SR

167

I-405

I-90

SR

520

I-5

+ 15%

+ 4%

Vehicle hours of delay by freeway corridor.

Source: Freeway Count Detectors, TRAC Flow, – Washington State Department of Transportation

Travel times increasingDelay increased 95% between 2010-2015

12

Source: National Transit Database Monthly Adjusted Release, December 2018

Transit use increasingAnnual Transit Boardings per Capita

San Francisco

Los Angeles

centra l Puget Sound

Chicago

Boston

Washington DC

Phi ladelphia

Portland

Salt Lake CityMinneapolis

Denver

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

0M 2M 4M 6M 8M 10M 12M 14M

13

• In 2018, 6th highest transit boardingsper capita in nation

• All cities above region have legacy heavy rail systems

Today’s Meeting

Planning Framework

14 14

2050 population forecast

15

In smaller households

In 2050 there will be 2.36 people per household on average, down from 2.50 today.

Who will be living here?

16

More diverse

Between 2000 and 2016, 81% of the region’s population growth was people of color.

Older

18% of the region’s population will be over the age of 65 by 2050, up from 14% today.

In 2050, the region’s residents will be:

• A strong economy and a healthy environment

• Preserve waters, farms, recreation and resource lands

• Urban Growth Area and centers strategy

• Local actions to achieve regional VISION

VISION 2040

Integrated plan for sustainable development

18

VISION 2050 Work Program

19

20

Increase housing choices and affordability

Provide opportunities for all

Sustain a strong economy

Significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Keep the region moving

Restore the health of Puget Sound

Protect a network of open space

Growth in centers and near transit

Act collaboratively and support local efforts

• Regional strategy for allocating growth

• Groups cities and unincorporated areas by regional geographies

• Goals:

– Focus new growth within the urban area

– Variety of communities, densities, and sizes

– Better balance of jobs and housing across the region

– Within the urban area, focus growth in cities and centers

– Leverage new and existing infrastructure, including transit

Regional Growth Strategy

• Most growth in Metropolitan, Core, and High Capacity Transit Communities

• 65% of region’s population growth and 75% of employment growth in regional growth centers and near high-capacity transit

• Lower growth allocations in urban unincorporated and rural compared with long-term trends

• Better jobs-housing balance by shifting employment allocation from King County

Regional Growth Strategy

Implementation

• Data, tools, and planning guidance

• Policy and plan review

• Regional transportation planning and funding

• Regional economic development planning

• Other regional actions

Today’s Meeting

Relationship to High Capacity Transit

24

• Strategy for mobility and choice

• Meets all state and federal requirements

• $197 Billion

• Integrated Regional Transit Network

• Get ahead on key issues: environment, innovation & technology, finance, performance measurement

Regional Transportation Plan

25

Regional policy: implementationMPP-RC-6

Give regional funding – both for transportation infrastructure and economic development – to support designated regional growth centers and manufacturing/industrial centers, consistent with the regional vision. Regional funds are prioritized to regional centers.

draft VISION 2050, p. 19 (2019)

The region’s transportation investments (in red) are focused within the urban growth areas (light green) where most of the region’s growth is happening, along with most of the region’s traffic.

Regional Centers29 Regional Growth Centers• 2.6% of urban growth area (26 mi²)

• 5% of population (260,000)

• 30% of jobs (500,000)

10 Manufacturing Industrial Centers• 4% of region’s land area (41 mi²)

• 0.3% of population (11,000)

• 9.5% of jobs (160,000)27

• $60 billion+ high capacity transit• Centers and station areas

Aggressive transit program

28

29 Regional Growth Centers

Commuter Rail: 2 lines/14 stations

Ferry: 8 routes

Light Rail: 116 miles/80+ stations

Bus Rapid Transit: 42 lines

29

29 Regional Growth Centers

Commuter Rail: 2 lines/14 stations

Ferry: 9 terminals/10 routes

Light Rail: 116 miles/80+ stations

Bus Rapid Transit: 42 lines

30

29 Regional Growth Centers

Commuter Rail: 2 lines/14 stations

Ferry: 9 terminals/10 routes

Light Rail: 116 miles/80+ stations

Bus Rapid Transit: 42 lines

31

29 Regional Growth Centers

Commuter Rail: 2 lines/14 stations

Ferry: 9 terminals/10 routes

Light Rail: 116 miles/80+ stations

Bus Rapid Transit: 42 routes/~685 stops

32

Communities Connected by High Capacity Transit

• 42 Cities & Towns

• 13 Urban Uninc. Communities

• In 2050, 33% of region’s residents & 57% employment within ½ mile of HCT

33

VISION 2050

34

Transit Focused Growth:

• 65% population growth

• 75% employment growth

Today’s Meeting

Upcoming Work

35

Upcoming PSRC Work

36

Passenger Only Ferry Study Winter 2021

Regional Aviation Baseline Study Fall 2020

2022 RTP Update

2020 Project Selection

Takeaways

Historic levels of regional growth and change

Public supportive – yet growing concerns

Regional & local plans in place and being implemented

Real issues: housing, mobility, equity, environment

Updating plans: adjust and refine policies & strategies

37

Thank you.Ben BakkentaDirector of Regional Planningbbakkenta@psrc.org

38 38