Post on 16-Dec-2015
Reducing the Environmental Impacts of Transport with Behavioural Change- a London Perspective
Helen ApSimon & Tim Oxley
With help from members of APRIL (Air Pollution Research in London)
A.P.R.I.L: research network- brings together research community and those responsible for air quality; recently expanded to noise and climate change
National level (Defra): The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and N Ireland:possible policy measures considered included e.g. impact of a national road pricing scheme
London, GLA /TfL:- congestion charging, LEZ,
public transport
Local authorities : smaller scale,-> AQMAs, but also collective projects e.g. WALKIT-> modal change
1. Assessment of behavioural measures
2. Some case studies based on UKIAM (UK Integrated Assessment Model)
choice of vehicle; driving behaviour
3. Questions arising
Emissions = Activity levels x Emission Factors
Technical measures
Environmental impacts
Behavioural change
Incentives Costs
GHGs & AQ pollutants
SCOPING STUDIES:Some hypothetical scenarios1.Increasing trend to diesel: assume large (>2.0
litres) and medium (>1.4) petrol cars switch to diesel
2. Incentives to switch to smaller more efficient cars: assume large (>2.0 litres) and medium (>1.4) petrol cars switch to small petrol cars <1.4 litres
3. Regulating vehicle speeds: effect of 10% reduction in speeds on faster roads
Effect of scenarios on emissions and air quality
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
to Diesel smallcars low speed
% NO x UK
London
Road>AQ
PM10 UK
London
Road>AQ
CO2 UK
London
N2O UK
London
Worse AQ
Less GHGs
Win-win
Emit less of all
No benefit AQ
% change in emissions (UK-London): blue NOx, grey PM, orange CO2, green N2O
& in road-length > AQ limit value: striped columns- blue NO2, grey PM10
Downsizing cars:-
a) Capital cost ~£10,000 less, averaged
over 200,000 km 5 p/km
b) Running costs: petrol consumption
6.2 l/100km instead of 9.3 l/100km, and
fuel cost 100p/litre 3.1 p/km
Total saving NEGATIVE COST > 8 p/km
Incentive: lower license cost for smaller car
is minimal by comparison
Downsizing cars continued
What limits this behavioural change?
Some uses require power/bigger engines
e.g. if towing caravan, or heavy or bulky load
-> never 100% applicability
Lifestyle barriers - image/ status/ comfort etc
(improvements in technology have helped downsizing. Need luxury models of small cars, changes in advertising?)
Elasticity models (% change function of cost) do not work in this context.
What is a realistic scenario for downsizing?
Switch to diesel
Has been a substantial trend resulting from a much smaller financial saving than previous case study
Helped by technological improvements in diesel cars.
But saving per km difficult to estimate on comparable basis because of fluctuating fuel /oil prices- (even more difficult for projections to 2020 and beyond).
Disadvantage of more fine PM- depends on toxicity of diesel particulates, and harm to health relative to other types of particle.
Reducing speed/accelerationEnforcing speed limits, reducing speed limits, ecodriving (NB Dutch study cited 5 euro/ton CO2 saved)
Cost of enforcement/equipment (regulatory)
Costs to motorist: fines (but reduce regulatory cost)
journey time-> hours of work-time/leisure lost
can be large, but when applicable- e.g. enforcing existing speed limits versus reducing speed limits
fuel costs saved (negative cost) but variability re ecodriving (~5%?), and how to assess benefits for emissions and AQ
Wider benefits (pedestrians,other road users) less serious accidents,noise.
Emissions = Activity levels x Emission Factors
Technical measures
Environmental impacts
Behavioural change
Incentives CostsCan be negative
Which “costs” & to whom?
Variable params e.g oil price
Other benefits e.g less serious accidents
Social as well as fiscal / financial
Uncertainties e.g. ecodriving
Extent ???
+ & -
GHGs & AQ pollutants