Reducing the Environmental Impacts of Transport with Behavioural Change- a London Perspective

Helen ApSimon & Tim Oxley

With help from members of APRIL (Air Pollution Research in London)

A.P.R.I.L: research network- brings together research community and those responsible for air quality; recently expanded to noise and climate change

National level (Defra): The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and N Ireland:possible policy measures considered included e.g. impact of a national road pricing scheme

London, GLA /TfL:- congestion charging, LEZ,

public transport

Local authorities : smaller scale,-> AQMAs, but also collective projects e.g. WALKIT-> modal change

LESS POLLUTION

1. Assessment of behavioural measures

2. Some case studies based on UKIAM (UK Integrated Assessment Model)

choice of vehicle; driving behaviour

3. Questions arising

Emissions = Activity levels x Emission Factors

Technical measures

Environmental impacts

Behavioural change

Incentives Costs

GHGs & AQ pollutants

Case study 1:trend petrol cars-> diesel

Case study 2: trend to smaller cars

Case study 3: Driving behaviour

Comply with speed limits

Change speed limits

Ecodriving

SCOPING STUDIES:Some hypothetical scenarios1.Increasing trend to diesel: assume large (>2.0

litres) and medium (>1.4) petrol cars switch to diesel

2. Incentives to switch to smaller more efficient cars: assume large (>2.0 litres) and medium (>1.4) petrol cars switch to small petrol cars <1.4 litres

3. Regulating vehicle speeds: effect of 10% reduction in speeds on faster roads

Effect of scenarios on emissions and air quality

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

to Diesel smallcars low speed

% NO x UK

London

Road>AQ

PM10 UK

London

Road>AQ

CO2 UK

London

N2O UK

London

Worse AQ

Less GHGs

Win-win

Emit less of all

No benefit AQ

% change in emissions (UK-London): blue NOx, grey PM, orange CO2, green N2O

& in road-length > AQ limit value: striped columns- blue NO2, grey PM10

Downsizing cars:-

a) Capital cost ~£10,000 less, averaged

over 200,000 km 5 p/km

b) Running costs: petrol consumption

6.2 l/100km instead of 9.3 l/100km, and

fuel cost 100p/litre 3.1 p/km

Total saving NEGATIVE COST > 8 p/km

Incentive: lower license cost for smaller car

is minimal by comparison

Downsizing cars continued

What limits this behavioural change?

Some uses require power/bigger engines

e.g. if towing caravan, or heavy or bulky load

-> never 100% applicability

Lifestyle barriers - image/ status/ comfort etc

(improvements in technology have helped downsizing. Need luxury models of small cars, changes in advertising?)

Elasticity models (% change function of cost) do not work in this context.

What is a realistic scenario for downsizing?

Switch to diesel

Has been a substantial trend resulting from a much smaller financial saving than previous case study

Helped by technological improvements in diesel cars.

But saving per km difficult to estimate on comparable basis because of fluctuating fuel /oil prices- (even more difficult for projections to 2020 and beyond).

Disadvantage of more fine PM- depends on toxicity of diesel particulates, and harm to health relative to other types of particle.

Pedestrian exposure to ultra-fine particles in streets

From DAPPLE field campaign in central London

Reducing speed/accelerationEnforcing speed limits, reducing speed limits, ecodriving (NB Dutch study cited 5 euro/ton CO2 saved)

Cost of enforcement/equipment (regulatory)

Costs to motorist: fines (but reduce regulatory cost)

journey time-> hours of work-time/leisure lost

can be large, but when applicable- e.g. enforcing existing speed limits versus reducing speed limits

fuel costs saved (negative cost) but variability re ecodriving (~5%?), and how to assess benefits for emissions and AQ

Wider benefits (pedestrians,other road users) less serious accidents,noise.

Emissions = Activity levels x Emission Factors

Technical measures

Environmental impacts

Behavioural change

Incentives CostsCan be negative

Which “costs” & to whom?

Variable params e.g oil price

Other benefits e.g less serious accidents

Social as well as fiscal / financial

Uncertainties e.g. ecodriving

Extent ???

+ & -

GHGs & AQ pollutants