NZ Transport Agency Page 1

PurposeThis paper provides an update to the 2009 Wellington Northern Corridor Summary Statement. The update relates specifically to the context, outcomes, strategic benefits and the implementation plan required to complete the Wellington Northern Corridor.

Information that has not changed from the 2009 summary statement has not been restated, allowing the update to concentrate on how the Wellington Northern Corridor has evolved since it was established, bringing individual network improvements together as a programme of work.

Key updates• Theoutcomesfirstidentifiedin2009

remainthesame.Thisshowsthattheimprovementsselectedin2009fortheWellingtonNorthernCorridorwererobust,standinguptothedetailedworkofthepastfouryears.

• Investigationscompletedsince2009havehighlightedsomeoutcomesthatwerenotpreviouslyrecognised,suchasresilienceandreliabilityimprovements.ThesestrengthentheoverallregionalbenefitsoftheWellingtonNorthernCorridor,anddemonstratehowitwillreducethepersonal,business,andregionaleconomicimpactproblemsthatexistonthecurrentSH1.

• Inparticular,duetotheconfirmationofroutealignments,thereismoreconfidenceabouttheresilienceoftheWellingtonNorthernCorridor.Somesectionsprovidealternativeroutesandstructureswillbedesignedtowithstandstrongerearthquakes.

• Recentinvestigationsshowthat,withtheWellingtonNorthernCorridor,morningpeakperiodtripsfromLevintoWellingtonwillbe40minutesshorter,comparedtoearlierforecastsof35minutes.

• In2009therewasnotenoughdetailedinformationtoforecasttraveltimereliabilityorcrashsavings.

• Traveltimereliabilityisexpectedtoimprovesignificantlyduetoincreased

capacity,egTransmissionGullyisexpectedtoeliminatevirtuallyalltraveltimevariabilitybetweenLindenandMacKaysCrossing.

• Thenumberoffatalandseriouscrashesisexpectedtoreducefrom140to100inthefirstfive-yearperiodaftertheWellingtonNorthernCorridor’sconstructionhasbeencompleted.

• TheexpectedconstructioncostfortheWellingtonNorthernCorridorislargelyunchanged.In2009,theforecastedcostswere$2.6bandcurrentcostsarenow$2.5b(bothexpressedin2012dollarterms).

• TheBenefitCostRatio(BCR)fortheWellingtonNorthernCorridorhasbeenupdatedto1.6(itwas1.1in2009).TheincreaseintheBCRisaresultofadditionaltransportandwidereconomicbenefits(egtraveltimereductions,anincreaseinagglomerationbenefits)beingidentified.

• VarioussensitivitytestsontheupdatedBCRhavebeenundertaken.ThesetestsshowthattheBCRfortheWellingtonNorthernCorridorhasarangebetween1.1and2.8.

• TheBCRhasalsobeencalculatedinaccordancewiththerecentchangestotheEconomicEvaluationManual(eg6%discountrateand40yearevaluationperiod),whichapplytoalltransportprojects.

• WidereconomicbenefitssuggesttheWellingtonNorthernCorridorwilldeliver865additionalpermanentjobsintheregion,whereaspreviously650wereestimated.ToconstructtheWellingtonNorthernCorridoritisexpectedthatupto8,000newconstructionjobswillbecreated,peakingin2018with1,000activejobs.Thenumberofconstructionjobswaspreviouslynotestimated.

Project Summary Statement

NZ Transport Agency Page 2 For more information, visit our website www.nzta.govt.nz

Ōtaki

Te Horo

LevinLake Horowhenua

O–taki River

Waikanae

Paraparaumu

Paekakariki

Raumati South

TASMAN SEA

Ka-piti Island

Pukerua Bay

Otaihanga

Waikanae River

Pauatahanui

Lake Wairarapa

Upper HuttRimutaka Hill

Featherston

Plimmerton

Paremata

Porirua

Linden

Cannons Creek

Waitangirua

Mana

Peka Peka

To Palmerston North

Grenada North

Petone

Lower Hutt

WELLINGTON Eastbourne

Kilbirnie

Hataitai

Kaiwharawhara

To Masterton

MacKays

Airport to Mt Victoria Tunnel section

Tunnel to Tunnel section

Terrace Tunnel improvements

Aotea Quay to Ngauranga section

Linden to MacKays section (Transmission Gully)

MacKays to Peka Peka section

Peka Peka to Ōtaki section

Ōtaki to Levin section

Existing State Highway

LEGEND

Wellington Northern Corridor (Wellington Airport to Levin)Roads of National Significance

Airport to Mt Victoria Tunnel section

Tunnel to Tunnel section– Basin Bridge– Buckle Street underpass– Inner City bypass improvements

Terrace Tunnel improvements

Aotea Quay to Ngauranga section

Linden to MacKays section (Transmission Gully)

MacKays to Peka Peka section

Peka Peka to Ōtaki section

Ōtaki to Levin section

N

NZ Transport Agency Page 3

National context updates

The Roads of National Significance Programme was announced in 2009 and represents one of New Zealand’s biggest ever infrastructure investments. Since 2009 the Government has released the National Infrastructure Plan, Connecting New Zealand, Safer Journeys and its updated Government Policy Statement on Land Transport Funding, both of which support the programme.Fromnorthtosouth,theRoadsofNationalSignificanceare:

PuhoitoWellsford-SH1

CompletingtheWesternRingRoute,Auckland-SH16,SH18andSH20

VictoriaParkTunnel,Auckland-SH1(completed)

WaikatoExpressway-SH1

TaurangaEasternLink-SH2

WellingtonNorthernCorridor-SH1

ChristchurchMotorways–SH1,SH74andSH76

TheTransportAgencystartedworkonallsevenRoadsofNationalSignificance,andhasalreadycompletedone–theVictoriaParkTunnelinAuckland.

In2011,researchonthewidereconomicimpactsclarifiedthebenefitsassociatedwithimprovedbusinessoutputandproductivity(oftenasaconsequenceofbusinesseslocatedcloselytoeachother–otherwiseknownasagglomeration),imperfectcompetition(betterrelationshipsbetweencostsandrevenues),jobcreationandchanges(asaresultofimprovedaccesstolabourandmarkets),andthemethodsfortheirassessment.Thisprovidedgreaterclarityofthevalueofthesebenefits.

ThecompletedVictoriaParkTunnelproject

NZ Transport Agency Page 4 For more information, visit our website www.nzta.govt.nz

Regional context updates

Population forecasts show that Wellington will remain the third largest metropolitan area in New Zealand. In 2013 the regional population was 471,300, increasing at 0.7% per year. By 2031, the population is forecast to increase to about 550,000.

WELLINGTON NELSON

BLENHEIM

PICTON

Tasman

Marlborough

75

% travels to Napier

25%

trav

els to

Well

ington

NEW PLYMOUTH

WANGANUI

NELSON

BLENHEIM

PICTON

NAPIER

HASTINGS

TAUPO GISBORNE

PALMERSTON NTH

Manawatu

Taranaki

Hawke’s Bay

Tasman

Marlborough

Buller

Wellington Northern Corridor

WELLINGTON

AIRPORT RAILWAYPORT

less than 2m tonnes

PORT

2-5m tonnes

SAFETY

Increased safety risk

VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTUREFORESTRY FREIGHT

1-2m tonnes

6-7m tonnes

LEGEND

POPULATIONREGION POPULATION (2011)

POPULATION GROWTH (2011-2031)

30,000

500,000

1,500,000

-12 to -2 growth

-3 to 4% growth

5 to 12% growth

13 to 30% growth

*Whangarei, Auckland & Tauranga

import and export >5m tonnes p.a

>5m passengers

15% of timber exports

Wellingtoncontinuestodeveloparangeoftertiaryeducationandresearchinstitutions,includingthenewCallaghanInnovationandthreeexistingCrownResearchInstitutes.Asaconsequence,Wellingtonstillhasthehighestproportionofpeopleemployedinknowledge-intensiveservicesamongallofNewZealand’sregions.

EmploymentgrowthinWellingtonaveraged1.6%pabetween2000and2010comparedwith1.7%paoverthesameperiodforthenationaleconomy.WhilethisgrowthrateislowerthantheupperNorthIsland,WellingtonhasahighGDPpercapita-28%higherthanthenationalaverage.ThisreflectsWellington’s“nationaloffice”functionandthetypeofemploymentavailable.

Tourismisgrowing,withWellingtonrecordingthefourthhighestinternationalvisitorspend(andthirdhighestdomesticspend)ofanyregionin2012.ThisisexpectedtogrowwithWellingtonInternationalAirportforecastingthatpassengernumberswillincreasetoabout10.5millionby2030.

Wellingtonremainsanetimporteranddoesnotgeneratesignificantexportfreightduetothepresenceofmainlyserviceandknowledgebasedsectors.Throughfreight,however,isimportantasWellington’sgeographiclocationprovidesthehubforpeopleandfreightmovementsbetweentheNorthandSouthIslands.

CentrePort(PortsofWellington)isoneofthebusiestportsinNewZealandbecauseoftheCapital’sroleinfreight.Itsinfrastructure

enablesthemovementofapproximately11milliontonnesoffreightperannum.ThisvolumeissignificantlygreaterthanthemajorityofotherNewZealandports,withtheexceptionofPortsofAucklandandthePortofTauranga.

Centreport’sforecastincreaseinoperations,alongwiththegrowthfromothersectorsdescribedabove,willincreasepressureonthetransportnetwork,includingtheexistingSH1.

Since2009therehavebeensomenotablechangestothestrategicregional/localtransportpolicy/planningcontextthathaverecognisedthedevelopmentoftheWellingtonNorthernCorridor.Keychangesincludenewregionallandtransportstrategiesforboththe

NZ Transport Agency Page 5

Regional context updates

Population forecasts show that Wellington will remain the third largest metropolitan area in New Zealand. In 2013 the regional population was 471,300, increasing at 0.7% per year. By 2031, the population is forecast to increase to about 550,000.

WellingtonandManawatu-Wanganuiregions,anewWellingtonRegionalPolicyStatementandanupdatetotheWellingtonRegionalStrategy.

Alsosince2009,aNetworkPlanfortheWellingtonNorthernCorridorhasbeendeveloped.ThisPlanconsidershoweachsectionconnectswiththewidertransportnetworkandwhatimprovementsareneededtomaketheWellingtonNorthernCorridoreffective.ThekeypurposeofthePlanistoensurethattheimprovementsconnectoptimallyandcomplementlocalroads,publictransportandotherlocalinfrastructure.

Existing SH1 issuesTheexistingSH1routeremainsvulnerabletoclosureeitherafterasignificantearthquake,tsunamiorstormevent,orduetootherunplannedeventssuchastrafficcrashesandbadweather.DetailedinvestigationscompletedforTransmissionGullyindicatethatfollowingalargeearthquakeononeofthemajorfaultlines,thecoastalroutecouldbeclosedforbetweenthreeandsixmonths-whereastheTransmissionGullyroutecouldbeclosedforlessthanamonth.

TrafficisoftencongestedalongtheexistingSH1routecausingdelaysandresultinginunreliabletraveltimes.Forexample,investigationsforTransmissionGullyshowthattheLindentoMacKayssectionsuffersfromtraveltimes50%longerinpeakperiodsthaninnon-peakperiods.

Furthermore(asdemonstratedbytherecentKiwiRAP1initiative)SH1hasapoorsafetyrecordwithoneofthehighestnumbersoffatalandseriouscrashesperkilometreinNewZealand,especiallythesectionbetweenParaparaumuandLevinwhichaverages0.23fatalandseriousinjurycrashesperkilometreperyear.Thisissimilartothe0.21resultforthesectionofSH2fromPokeno(SH1)toMangatarata(SH25)intheWaikatoandBayofPlentyregion.

CommuterstoWellingtonarewellcateredforwithrail,busandferryservices,togetherwiththeroadnetwork.Theseservicesandnetworksgenerallyoperateatcapacityduringthepeakcommutingperiods.Thedisruptionstothetransportnetworkfromtheweathereventsinmid2013showedthedisruptiontopeopleandbusinessproductivitythatcanbecausedbyonlyhavingafewalternativeroutestoandfromWellingtonCity.

WellingtonInternationalAirport–TheAirport’sMasterPlan(2010)forecastsdomesticandinternationalpassengerswillgrowtoabout9million

and1.5millionrespectivelyby2030.

1NZRoadAssessmentProgramme.ItisapartnershipbetweentheNZAutomobileAssociation,NZTransportAgency,MinistryofTransport,ACCandNZPolicewithapurposeofanalysingtheroadsafetyofthestatehighwaynetwork.

NZ Transport Agency Page 6 For more information, visit our website www.nzta.govt.nz

Outcomes

Increased productivity and output indicators are shown below for the Transport Agency’s standard 40 year economic evaluation period. The Wellington Northern Corridor includes infrastructure that will endure far longer than this evaluation period and we can expect these impacts to last equally as long.

More efficient and reliable journeys

Traveltimesareexpectedtoreduceby40minutesfromLevintoWellingtonAirportin2031inbothdirectionsduringthepeakperiods.2

Significantreliabilityimprovementsareexpected.Forexample,TransmissionGullyisexpectedtoeliminatevirtuallyalltraveltimevariabilitybetweenLindenandMacKaysCrossing.

Safer journeys Thecombinednumberoffatalandseriouscrashesisexpectedtoreducefrom140to100inanyfiveyearperiodaftertheWellingtonNorthernCorridorhasbeencompleted.Inthefiveyearperiodbetween2008to2012therewere135fatalandseriouscrashes.

Increase in all traffic movements ThehighcapacityoftheWellingtonNorthernCorridorwillprovideforanadditional12,000vehiclesperdayatPoriruaand20,000vehiclesperdaysouthoftheWellingtonCBDby2031.

Effectiveness of Heavy Commercial Vehicle (HCV) movements

Traveltimesavingsofupto40minutesinpeakperiods.AlsotheWellingtonNorthernCorridorisaHighProductivityMotorVehicleroute–designedforlongerandheaviervehicles.

New and permanent jobs Increasedaccessibilityfromoutsideandwithintheregionisexpectedtoleadtonewemploymentfor865to3,700peopleasorganisationssetupnewplacesofemployment,andplanneddevelopmentsoccur.

Construction jobs About8,000constructionjobsareexpectedtobecreatedtodelivertheWellingtonNorthernCorridor.

Journey time reductionsEarlyworkontheAoteatoNgaurangasectionhasimprovedtraveltimereliabilityandprovidedtraveltimesavingsoftwominutes3inthepeakperiodbetweenthePetoneOverbridgeandtheTerraceTunnel.

Facilitating public transport, walking and cyclingTheWellingtonNorthernCorridorispartofamulti-modalapproachtomeetingtheWellingtonregion’sfuturetransportdemands.

Inadditiontoimprovingtheregion’sstatehighwaynetwork,theWellingtonNorthernCorridorwilldeliversignificantenhancementstotheregion’spublictransport,walkingandcyclingnetworks,forexample:

• TheBasinBridgeandMtVictoriaTunnelDuplicationimprovementswillfacilitateamoreefficientandreliablepublictransportspinethroughtheCBDtothesouthernandeasternsuburbs,and

• Upto31kmofnewwalkingandcyclingfacilitieswillbecreatedoncetheWellingtonNorthernCorridoriscompleted.MorefacilitiesmaybeidentifiedoncetheinvestigationsfortheŌtakitoLevinsectionhavebeenfullycompletedin2014.

2Thesourcesforthetraveltimesarethetransportmodelsforthesectionsofthecorridor.Therefore,thetotalisnotthetruetraveltimebutindicatesthescaleofthereductionacrossthecorridor.

3AnaverageasmeasuredbyfixedBluetoothreceivers.

Amenity outcomesAsaconsequenceofsignificantvolumesoftrafficrelocatingtothenewSH1,theWellingtonNorthernCorridorwillprovideimprovedamenityforthecentresandsettlementsonthewestcoastofthelowerNorthIsland.TherewillalsobereducedtrafficwithinWellingtonCity,includingalongthewaterfrontroads(egOrientalParade)andontheroadsaroundtheBasinReserve,providinganopportunityforbetteraccessandurbanamenity.

NZ Transport Agency Page 7

Updated economics

The Wellington Northern Corridor has a funding assessment profile4 of “HHL”, which has not changed since 2009. It has retained a High strategic fit profile due to its alignment with government objectives and existing road operating conditions continue to demonstrate the need for the improvements. It has retained a High effectiveness profile due to its demonstrated ability to meet the needs of the regional network. It has a Low efficiency rating because the updated BCR of 1.6 remains between 1 and 2. This efficiency rating is typical for a major infrastructure project, and it is noted that over a 40 year period a $3b return is expected from the Wellington Northern Corridor.

CostsTheexpectedcosttocompletetheWellingtonNorthernCorridorisnow$2.5b(expressedin2012dollars).Thishasn’tchangedsignificantlyfromthe2009estimateof$2.4b(whichisequivalentto$2.6bin2012dollars).Thereishigherconfidenceinthesecostsastheyarebasedondetailedinvestigationsandconfirmedalignmentsforthenewsectionsofroad.Nevertheless,asensitivitytestoncostshowsthatusinga95thpercentilecost6theBCRwouldbe1.3.OthersensitivitytestsshowthattheBCRrangesbetween1.1and2.8.

In2009,anestimateofagglomerationbenefitswasprovided,however,itonlyconsideredtheWellingtonurbanarea.ThecurrentappraisalnowconsiderstheareaasfarnorthasŌtaki.AgglomerationbenefitsarenotevaluatedbeyondŌtakibecauseemploymentintheareasneartheWellingtonNorthernCorridorbeyondthispointdoesnotmeettherequiredcriteriasetoutintheresearch.FortheWellingtonNorthernCorridortheagglomerationbenefitsareestimatedat$410mpresentvalue.

In2009WiderEconomicBenefits(WEBs)estimatesweremadeforthetwobenefittypeswhereevaluationmethodshadbeenfirmlyestablished:agglomerationandlabourdemand.Noallowancewasmadeforimperfectcompetitionorlaboursupplyimpacts.TheestimatemadefortheamountofnewemploymentresultingfromtheimprovedaccessibilityprovidedbytheWellingtonNorthernCorridorwasbasedontwo

factors:theamountofexistingemploymentandresultsfromagglomerationmodelling.Forthecurrentanalysisthebenefitshavebeenestimatedonthebasisoftheproportionsoftheexistinglabourforceonly.Thisprovidesamoretransparentapproachtotheirassessment.Inlinewithcurrentadvice,thelabourdemandbenefitsarebasedonthetaxwedgegeneratedbynewemploymentratherthanthefullincreaseinGDP.In2009thefullGDPofnewlabourwasassumed.

Usingcurrentadvice,865additionaljobsareestimatedtobegeneratedoncompletionoftheWellingtonNorthernCorridor,resultinginbenefitsof$800mpresentvalue.Thisissimilartothe$715mpresentvalueestimatedin2009,thereforeitdoesnothaveamaterialimpactontheBCR,butassistswithbetterunderstandingofthebenefitsandprovidesusefulinformationformonitoringpurposes.

4Thefundingassessmentprofileisthebasisforcomparisonandprioritisationwithotheractivitiesnationally.Ingeneral,activitieswithhigherassessmentprofileswillbeconsideredaheadofthosewithlowerprofilesforinclusionintheNLTPandforNZTAinvestment.

5TheBCRshavebeencalculatedinaccordancewiththeNZTA’sEconomicEvaluationManual.ItisnotedthatthebenefitsoftheWellingtonNorthernCorridorarenowevaluatedovera40-yearperiodratherthana30-yearperiodasundertakenin2009.

6Thatis,ifaprojectwascompleted20times,onewouldexpecttheout-turncosttocomewithinthisvalueon19ofthe20occasions.

TheBCRs5fortheWellingtonNorthernCorridor,measuringthedirecttransportbenefitsarisingfromimprovementsrelativetocosts,areasfollows:

Discount Rate BCR without WEBs BCR including WEBS

6% 1.6 1.7

SensitivityTestsonDiscountRate

8% 1.2 1.4

4% 2.2 2.3

Website: www.nzta.govt.nz/projects/wellington-northern-corridor/index.html

Contact us

Delivery programmeThedeliveryprogrammeforeachsectionoftheWellingtonNorthernCorridorisshownbelow.

Section Description Completion Date

Airport to Mt Victoria Tunnel (2 km) DuplicationoftheMtVictoriaTunnel,andwideningofRuahineStreetandWellingtonRoad

2022

“Tunnel to Tunnel” (3 km) AbridgeonthenorthernsideoftheBasinReserve,anunderpassforBuckleStreet(aspartoftheNationalWarMemorialPark)andimprovementstotheexistingInnerCityBypass

2017

Terrace Tunnel improvements (3 km) Includestunnelduplication 2024

Aotea Quay to Ngauranga (4 km) Useofexistingmotorwayshouldersasa“fourthlane”,andtheimplementationofanewtrafficmanagementsystem

2022

Ngauranga to Linden AlinkroadbetweenPetone(SH2)andGrenada(SH1)maybedevelopedbyeithertheNZTAorlocalcouncilsifitisdeterminedthatitwilldeliverbenefitstothesectionofSH1betweenNgaurangaandLindenand/ortoSH2betweenNgaurangaandPetone

2023

Linden to MacKays (Transmission Gully) (27 km) Four-laneexpresswaystandard7fromnorthWellingtontoMacKaysCrossing

2020

MacKays to Peka Peka (16 km) Four-laneexpresswaystandardfromMacKaysCrossingtoPekaPeka

2018

Peka Peka to Ōtaki (15 km) Four-laneexpresswaystandardfromPekaPekatoŌtaki 2020

Ōtaki to Levin (approx 30 km) AphasedupgradeoftheexistingSH1tofour-lanesovertime.Firstphase(tobecompleted2019-2024)includeswidening,improvedpassingopportunitiesandupgradestonarrowbridgesandkeyintersections.Priortothisphase,minorsafetyimprovementsarealsobeingconsidered

2024

7Expresswaysaredualcarriagewaysthatallowmotoriststodriveatspeedsofupto100km/h.Theyaredesignedtobestraighterandflatterthanotherroads.Forsafetyreasons,trafficineachdirectionisseparatedbyacentralbarrierorstripofland.Afour-laneexpresswayallowsforhighervolumesofthroughtrafficthancanbeaccommodatedbyatwo-laneroad.Providingtwolanesineachdirectionalsoallowsfast-movingtraffictoovertakeslower-movingvehicles.Accessfromlocalroadstotheexpresswayisrestrictedtoreducetheriskofcrashesandallowmoreconsistenttraveltimes.Whereaccessisprovided,thisusuallytakestheformofaninterchange.