Post on 08-Aug-2020
The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management
Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)
Public Transport Issues in MelbourneWhy Melbourne Metro and Grade Crossings are not the
only concerns for Melbourne
Prof Graham CurriePublic Transport Research GroupInstitute of Transport StudiesMonash University
Glen Waverley Branch of the Australian Labor Party
Monday 26th September 2016
Introduction
Transport in Melbourne
Public Transport in Melbourne
The Drivers of Change
The Future
3
This presentation provides an overview of public transport in Melbourne…
Key Issues Covered
• What is the transport context of Melbourne?
• What are the major public transport problems in service provision and development
• How are services likely to develop in future?
4
…and is structured as follows
Public Transport in Melbourne
The Drivers of Change
Transport in Melbourne
The Future
5
Introduction
Transport in Melbourne
Public Transport in Melbourne
The Drivers of Change
The Future
6
Melbourne is a car based society – 75% of trips are by car
Car Driver 48%
Percent of Trips by Mode
Source: Melbourne on the move – VATS 1994
Car Lift 27%
Walk 16%
Train 3%Tram/ Bus 1% Each 11
1010
99
8
888
77
77
7
66
66
6
44
444
44
3
22
21
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Yarra
M oreland
M elbourne
M arribynong
Darebin
Port Phillip
Whit t lesea
Stonington
Greater Dandenong
Kingston
Glen Eira
Banyule
Boroondara
Hobsons Bay
M oonee Valley
Whitehorse
M onash
Brimbank
Bayside
M anningham
Wyndham
Hume
Frankston
Nillumbik
Yarra Ranges
Casey
M ornington Pen
Cardinia
M aroondah
Knox
M elton
LGA
Public Transport % Shareof Trips by LGA
Residents
7
Car vehicle sales and ownership continue to rise
Figure 10.4: Revised projected per capita Australian motor vehicle ownership (BTRE, 2002, p.15)
480,000
500,000
520,000
540,000
560,000
580,000
600,000
620,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Total new passenger vehicles sold annually - Australia
Figure 7.2: New passenger vehicle sales 2001-2005 (FCAI, 2006)
8
Urban traffic congestion in Melbourne costs $3B p.a. (2005) and will double by 2020
3
6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1995
2020
Cost of Urban Traffic Congestion - Melbourne
Cost $Aust Billion (2006)
Source: BTRE (2006)
Yea
r
Business DelayCosts
Share of 1995 Costs
Private VehicleDelay Costs
EnvironmentalImpacts
9
Congestion ‘hotspots’ are expected to spread spatially….
Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion
10
….and in Time
Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion
11
While all developed economies are affected, in Australia impacts are greater…
2.6
1.5
1.92
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Australia United States Western Europe OECD Average
Developed Economies
Source: ARA (2006) National Passenger Transport Agenda
Relative Costs of Congestion
Percent of GDP (2001)
12
…due to higher car dependency, low urban density, and…..
Source: OECD Factbook (2006)
-100 100 300 500 700 900
USA
New Zealand
Australia
France
Spain
Austria
Netherlands
Sw eden
Greece
Czeh Republic
Slovak Republic
Motor Vehicle Ownership
Vehicles/100 population
Cou
ntry
102
90
79
65
63
59
59
48
38
18
14
10
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
New York
Tokyo
Chicago
Singapore
Hong Kong
London
San Francisco
Paris
Berlin
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Urban Density
People per Hectare
Cou
ntry
Source: The Economist - Submission to the VCEC
Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion (2006)
13
…because our cities are GIGANTIC in scale
0 10 20
kilometres
PortPhillip
Bay
Western Port
10km
20km
30km
40km
Metropolitan Melbourne = 4M pop
Greater London = 8.4M pop
10km
20km
30km
40km
14
Introduction
Transport in Melbourne
Public Transport in Melbourne
The Drivers of Change
The Future
15
Buses ARE Melbourne’s public transport for most residents, which is a problem….
0 10 20
kilometres
PortPhillip
Bay
Western Port
• Over two thirds of Melbourne can only be serviced by bus services since rail and tram services lie considerable distances from where people live or where they want to travel to
• In 1996 the Metropolitan strategy team identified that 2.16M Melbournians lived In areas where buses were bus was the only means of access to public transport. 0.98M lived within access distance of rail services
16
…because there arent many
0 10 20
kilometres
PortPhillip
Bay
Western Port
• Over two thirds of Melbourne can only be serviced by bus services since rail and tram services lie considerable distances from where people live or where they want to travel to
• In 1996 the Metropolitan strategy team identified that 2.16M Melbournians lived In areas where buses were bus was the only means of access to public transport. 0.98M lived within access distance of rail services
Weekday Service Frequency (2006)
Peak Off Peak
AV. MELBOURNE 40m 50m
Weekday Service Span
Weekday
AV. MELBOURNE 06:46-18:53
17
The bus network on weekdays...
Source: Currie (2003)Source: Currie (2003)
WeekdayBus Services
Source: Currie (2003)
18
…contrasts somewhat with weekends
Source: Currie (2003)
SundayBus Services
19
Frequency drives Australian ridership performance
19
220
271
304
305
307
400
402
404
407
410
437442
443
508
527
552
561
564612
623 624
627 683
685 766
781
784785
800
811
812
850
926
700 (903)
703
888
889
900
901
503
506
507
521
541
542
545
546
548
T500
T501
100
111
120
124
125
130
135
140
150
155
160
170
180
200
210
212 250
555
T61
T62
T63
T64
T65
T70T71
T75
T80
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Boa
rdin
gs p
er r
oute
km
Vehicle trips/annum
Melbourne Bus
Melbourne Smartbus
Adelaide NE Busway
Brisbane SE Busway
Sydney T-Ways
220
271
304
305
307
400
402
404
407
410
437442
443
508
527
552
561
564612
623 624
627 683
685 766
781
784785
800
811
812
850
926
700 (903)
703
888
889
900
901
503
506
507
521
541
542
545
546
548
T500
T501
100
111
120
124
125
130
135
140
150
155
160
170
180
200
210
212 250
555
T61
T62
T63
T64
T65
T70T71
T75
T80
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Boa
rdin
gs p
er r
oute
km
Vehicle trips/annum
Melbourne Bus
Melbourne Smartbus
Adelaide NE Busway
Brisbane SE Busway
Sydney T-Ways
Source: Currie, G. and Delbosc A (2011) ‘Understanding bus rapid transit route ridership drivers: An empirical study of Australian BRT systems’ TRANSPORT POLICY Volume 18, Issue 5, September 2011, Pages 755‐764
20
In general our bus service level is poor compared to world practice
20
Source: Pan D (2013) ‘Key Transport Statistics of World Cities’ Journeys Sept 2013
21
Tram services are struggling in growing traffic congestion
21
Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing
Transport Congestion
22
Melbourne is the worlds biggest “streetcar” system
167
7166
4944
3125 24 24 23
1814 13 12
9 9
1 1 0
17
4 4 3 1
48
41
9 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
MELBOURNE
TORONTO
Dusseldorf
Bochum
Essen
Duisburg
Frankfurt/Main
Dortmund
Mulheim
Cologne
Hanover
Mannheim
Karlsruhe (VBK)
Stuttgart
Bonn SWB
Bielefeld
Bonn SSB
Saarbruchen
Nantes
IDF
Grenoble
Lyon
Montoellier
Orleans
Rouen
Strasbourg
Sheffield
Croydon
Manchester
Nottingham
West Midlands
Tyne and Wear
San Francisco
Philadelphia
Salt Lake City
San Diego
Sacramento
Galveston
Pittsburgh
Memphis
Baltimore
Dallas
Newark
Kenosha
Boston
Detroit
Portland
Los Angeles
St. Louis
San Jose
Cleveland
Denver
New Orleans
Buffalo
Newark
Seattle
Tram Track Km in Mixed Traffic
German Cities French Cities UK Cities USA Cities
Melbourne
Toronto
Source: Currie G and Shalaby A (2007) ‘Success and Challenges in Modernising Streetcar Systems – Experience in Melbourne and Toronto’ Transportation Research Record No 2006 Transportation Research Board Washington DC ISSN 0361-1981 pp 31-39 2007
23
24
Mixed Traffic service impedes performance
4034
3231
3030
2626
2525
2522
2121
212121
2020
2020
19191919
19181818
181818
1818181717171717
1717171717
1716
1616
16161616
1515151515
1515
14141414
1413
1212
1010
9
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Skagen,
Guadalajara,
Toulouse,
Washington,
Laon,
Stut tgart ,
Hong Kong,
Strasbourg,
New York,
M annheim,
Los Angeles,
Rotterdam,
Tunis,
Hong Kong,
M ainz,
Heidelberg
M unich,
Riga,
Berlin,
Oslo,
Paris,
Budapest,
Zwickau,
Constanta,
Amsterdam,
Creil,
Vienna,
Zagreb,
Genève
M ELBOURNE
Torino,
Toronto,
Tallinn,
Würzburg,
M ilano,
Lisbon,
Average Speed (KPH)Source: UITP Databank
Average Operating Speeds – World Tram/Light Rail Systems
City/ System
Melbourne (15/16 kph)
Melbourne Tram Reliability
• 33% of services are considered to be NOT running on time
• On time defined as arriving more than 1 min early of more than 6 mins late
Source: Track Record
25
Better performing railways are built on new not old infrastructure and strong resilience/reliability
33
45
52.6
55
20 30 40 50 60
Melbourne
Singapore
Hong Kong
Perth
Average Speed (Kph)
Av. Speed (Kph)
15
50
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Melbourne
Sydney
Best Practice
Singapore
Hong Kong
Breakdowns in Service (000 kms)
Av. Speed (Kph)
NeverRecorded
26
...yet expanding rail, thus making it more complex, has been our approach to mass transit expansion
27
Unplanned disruptions are common; e.g. reported signal faults; 1,900 p.a. (5+/day)
27
Source: Adam Carey, The Age, ‘Signal failures are causing chronic rail delays’ 23/10/2013
Reported Signaling Disruptions
• 1,900 signal failures p.a. (12 months to August 2013)
• 5.2 per day
• Biggest Locations:
• Flinders Street Station 89
• North Melbourne 71
• Newport 51
Metro Trains
"We are installing advanced computer technology which improves control of the signalling system, but our field equipment is outdated and requires replacing,"
28
Melbourne rail demand growth has been impressive by any standard
127.9131.8 133.8 134.9
146.0
162.4
178.6
201.2
213.9219.3
228.9222
225.5
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0
2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Year
History of Rail Patronage - Melbourne
Rail Demand M tripsp.a.
Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports
29
However the rail network has reached capacity
30
How Transit Orientated is Melbourne Development?
30
Source: Cervero and Kockleman (1997)
Density– the concentration and compactness of development within geographic space
Diversity– the land use mix including the balance and compatabilityof users with each other (and transit)
Design– which relates how the various land uses are combined,linked and presentedin terms of ease of access and attractiveness
31
Source: Aston L, Currie G and K Pavkova (2016) ) ‘Does Transit Mode Influence the Transit-Orientation of Urban Development? - An Empirical Study’ JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY Vol 55 (2016) pp83-91
The Transit Orientation of Development – OVERALL Melbourne – only in central areas
32
So what do passengers think about these issues?
33
Source: Currie G Delbosc A (2015) Variation in Perceptions of Urban Public Transport Performance Between International Cities Using Spiral Plot Analysis' TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD
‐2.5
‐2
‐1.5
‐1
‐0.5
0
0.5
Safe at night
Reliability
Frequency
Safe during day
PT available where and when needed
Deal with disruptions quickly
Get to stops/stations
Quality of service
Make connections
Available on weekends
Get information about PT
Disruptions don't happen oftenMeet costs
Information to plan journey
People I care for can use it safely
Available at night
Ease of buying/using ticket
Overcrowding
Staff curteous and friendly
Physical access
Can make trips to new places on PT
Travel time compared to car
Comfortable with strangers on PT
Boston Brisbane London Melbourne New York
Perth San Francisco Sydney Toronto Average
Highest ImportanceLowest Importance
PERFORMANCE MINUS IMPORTANCE RATINGS
SPIRAL PLOT
34
Introduction
Transport in Melbourne
Public Transport in Melbourne
The Drivers of Change
The Future
35
Growth in urban travel and car ownership continues to rise
• Since 1996 car travel has increased at 1.9% p.a. (Challenge Melbourne -issues in metropolitan planning for the 21st century Oct 2000)
• Forecasts suggest metropolitan travel will increase by around 20% by 2020 without action to address current trends (NCCC Study)
36
• Melbourne road freight movements total around 170M tonnes p.a.. This has grown by 120% between 1971 and 1997.
• Truck traffic forecast to double over the next 20 years (Challenge Melbourne)
• The efficient movement of commercial traffic has been directly linked to a competitive economy and the affordability of consumer products
Meanwhile road freight volume is expected to double in 20 years
37
We have also stopped being active – this has led to ‘the epidemic of obesity’
Lifestyle underpins Australia's growing obesity problemThe Dieticians Association of Australia says television and less active lifestyles have contributed to increased rates of obesity.
The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) has released a report showing nine million adult Australians carry excess weight.
The report estimates at least 16 per cent of men and 17 per cent of women are obese, with a further 42 per cent of men and 25 per cent of women considered overweight.
Ms Collins says lifestyles have changed significantly over the last century.
"We use our cars more, most people have jobs where they sit down, most of us don't do as much work around the house, or even the yard.
"There just aren't the same opportunities to be active."
Source: ABC News Online – September 2003
38
Road dominates increasing greenhouse emissions - BIG change is needed to meet the ‘Stern’ Target
Transport emissions - actuals and forecast
Passenger cars
Trucks
Light comm vehBuses AviationRail
Shipping
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CO
2-e
Road Transport Emissions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MT
CO
2-e
Targeting SternForecast (with measures)
Actual
17 Mt further reduction measures
89%RoadTransport
Source: Australian Greenhouse Office (2006) Source: Bus Association of Victoria (2007)
To stabilise at 450ppm CO2e, without overshooting, global emissions would need to peak in the next 10 years and then fall at more than 5% per year, reaching 70% below current levels by 2050. - Sir Nicholas Stern
39
Research suggests that as fuel prices rise a high share of Melbourne residents are being marginalised
Melbourne
Source: Dodson J and Sipe N (2006) Shocking the Suburbs: Urban location, housing debt and oil vulnerability in the Australian City- ‘vulnerability assessment for mortgage, petrol and inflation risks and expenditure’ (VAMPIRE).
40
Monash research has highlighted ‘forced car ownership’ in fringe urban Australia
Key Findings - FCO
• Over 20,000 Melbourne households with income <$500/week running 2+ cars
• Zero/Very Low Public Transport
• ‘Forced Car Ownership’ – No choice
• Growing as fuel prices rise
• Even modest public transport access can reduce forced car ownership
Source: Currie and Senbergs (2007)
41
Introduction
Transport in Melbourne
Public Transport in Melbourne
The Drivers of Change
The Future
42
Since 2001 PT service increased 63% (66% bus/ 36% rail, 10% tram) but ‐but population growth continues at a faster pace…
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2001
-2
2002
-3
2003
-4
2004
-5
2005
-6
2006
-7
2007
-8
2008
-9
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
2013
-14
2014
-15
2015
-16e
2016
-17e
Rail Tram Bus Total
Index of Public Transport Service Kms p.a (2001-2=100)
Year
Veh
icle
Km
s p.
a. (
2001
-2=
100)
3.6 3.63.6
3.73.8
3.83.9
4.04.1
4.24.3
4.34.4
4.54.6
4.7
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5
2001-2
2003-4
2005-6
2007-8
2009-10
2011-12
2013-14
2015-
16e
520
Population Growth (M)
Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(M)
Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports
43
…in last 10 years, per capita service increased to 22% but declined since 2011 (we have gone down by 9% points); recent trend is flat
Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports
100102 102
100102
105107
112114
121122
119
114113 113 113
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16e
2016-17e
Year
Relative Service Level Per Head
Service Levels (Vkms supplied)Per Capita
44
Melbourne is expected to increase in size by another 1‐2M people in 20‐30 years
0.35
0.67
0.98
1.27
1.55
1.82
2.08
2.33
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Growth(M)
Year
Source: Victoria in Future (2012)
Forecast Melbourne Population Growth
Population GrowthTotal (M)
45
Melbourne Metro; exciting but capacity upgrade is long overdue now –current start date is 2026!
46
Melbourne rail grade separations; exciting some capacity relief but not an increase in service
47
Monash Research – Delay Impacts of Grade crossings in Melbourne
Source: PhD research of Phuoc Quy Duy Nguyen
Frequency of train (trains/peak hours)
Increase in travel time causedby level crossings (%)
Localised variation in traffic travel time delay caused by at grade rail crossings
48
Where is tram and bus priority? – SmartBus; downgraded?
49
www.worldtransitresearch.info
9
5050
ALSO: NEW PTRG WEBSITEPTRG.INFO
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