Public Transport Issues in...

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

Public Transport Issues in MelbourneWhy Melbourne Metro and Grade Crossings are not the

only concerns for Melbourne

Prof Graham CurriePublic Transport Research GroupInstitute of Transport StudiesMonash University

Glen Waverley Branch of the Australian Labor Party

Monday 26th September 2016

Introduction

Transport in Melbourne

Public Transport in Melbourne

The Drivers of Change

The Future

3

This presentation provides an overview of public transport in Melbourne…

Key Issues Covered

• What is the transport context of Melbourne?

• What are the major public transport problems in service provision and development

• How are services likely to develop in future?

4

…and is structured as follows




The Future

5

Introduction




The Future

6

Melbourne is a car based society – 75% of trips are by car

Car Driver 48%

Percent of Trips by Mode

Source: Melbourne on the move – VATS 1994

Car Lift 27%

Walk 16%

Train 3%Tram/ Bus 1% Each 11

1010

99

8

888

77

77

7

66

66

6

44

444

44

3

22

21

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Yarra

M oreland

M elbourne

M arribynong

Darebin

Port Phillip

Whit t lesea

Stonington

Greater Dandenong

Kingston

Glen Eira

Banyule

Boroondara

Hobsons Bay

M oonee Valley

Whitehorse

M onash

Brimbank

Bayside

M anningham

Wyndham

Hume

Frankston

Nillumbik

Yarra Ranges

Casey

M ornington Pen

Cardinia

M aroondah

Knox

M elton

LGA

Public Transport % Shareof Trips by LGA

Residents

7

Car vehicle sales and ownership continue to rise

Figure 10.4: Revised projected per capita Australian motor vehicle ownership (BTRE, 2002, p.15)

480,000

500,000

520,000

540,000

560,000

580,000

600,000

620,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Total new passenger vehicles sold annually - Australia

Figure 7.2: New passenger vehicle sales 2001-2005 (FCAI, 2006)

8

Urban traffic congestion in Melbourne costs $3B p.a. (2005) and will double by 2020

3

6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1995

2020

Cost of Urban Traffic Congestion - Melbourne

Cost $Aust Billion (2006)

Source: BTRE (2006)

Yea

r

Business DelayCosts

Share of 1995 Costs

Private VehicleDelay Costs

EnvironmentalImpacts

9

Congestion ‘hotspots’ are expected to spread spatially….

Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion

10

….and in Time

Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion

11

While all developed economies are affected, in Australia impacts are greater…

2.6

1.5

1.92

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Australia United States Western Europe OECD Average

Developed Economies

Source: ARA (2006) National Passenger Transport Agenda

Relative Costs of Congestion

Percent of GDP (2001)

12

…due to higher car dependency, low urban density, and…..

Source: OECD Factbook (2006)

-100 100 300 500 700 900

USA

New Zealand

Australia

France

Spain

Austria

Netherlands

Sw eden

Greece

Czeh Republic

Slovak Republic

Motor Vehicle Ownership

Vehicles/100 population

Cou

ntry

102

90

79

65

63

59

59

48

38

18

14

10

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

New York

Tokyo

Chicago

Singapore

Hong Kong

London

San Francisco

Paris

Berlin

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Urban Density

People per Hectare

Cou

ntry

Source: The Economist - Submission to the VCEC

Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion (2006)

13

…because our cities are GIGANTIC in scale

0 10 20

kilometres

PortPhillip

Bay

Western Port

10km

20km

30km

40km

Metropolitan Melbourne = 4M pop

Greater London = 8.4M pop

10km

20km

30km

40km

14

Introduction




The Future

15

Buses ARE Melbourne’s public transport for most residents, which is a problem….

0 10 20

kilometres

PortPhillip

Bay

Western Port

• Over two thirds of Melbourne can only be serviced by bus services since rail and tram services lie considerable distances from where people live or where they want to travel to

• In 1996 the Metropolitan strategy team identified that 2.16M Melbournians lived In areas where buses were bus was the only means of access to public transport. 0.98M lived within access distance of rail services

16

…because there arent many

0 10 20

kilometres

PortPhillip

Bay

Western Port

• Over two thirds of Melbourne can only be serviced by bus services since rail and tram services lie considerable distances from where people live or where they want to travel to

• In 1996 the Metropolitan strategy team identified that 2.16M Melbournians lived In areas where buses were bus was the only means of access to public transport. 0.98M lived within access distance of rail services

Weekday Service Frequency (2006)

Peak Off Peak

AV. MELBOURNE 40m 50m

Weekday Service Span

Weekday

AV. MELBOURNE 06:46-18:53

17

The bus network on weekdays...

Source: Currie (2003)Source: Currie (2003)

WeekdayBus Services

Source: Currie (2003)

18

…contrasts somewhat with weekends

Source: Currie (2003)

SundayBus Services

19

Frequency drives Australian ridership performance

19

220

271

304

305

307

400

402

404

407

410

437442

443

508

527

552

561

564612

623 624

627 683

685 766

781

784785

800

811

812

850

926

700 (903)

703

888

889

900

901

503

506

507

521

541

542

545

546

548

T500

T501

100

111

120

124

125

130

135

140

150

155

160

170

180

200

210

212 250

555

T61

T62

T63

T64

T65

T70T71

T75

T80

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Boa

rdin

gs p

er r

oute

km

Vehicle trips/annum

Melbourne Bus

Melbourne Smartbus

Adelaide NE Busway

Brisbane SE Busway

Sydney T-Ways

220

271

304

305

307

400

402

404

407

410

437442

443

508

527

552

561

564612

623 624

627 683

685 766

781

784785

800

811

812

850

926

700 (903)

703

888

889

900

901

503

506

507

521

541

542

545

546

548

T500

T501

100

111

120

124

125

130

135

140

150

155

160

170

180

200

210

212 250

555

T61

T62

T63

T64

T65

T70T71

T75

T80

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Boa

rdin

gs p

er r

oute

km

Vehicle trips/annum

Melbourne Bus

Melbourne Smartbus

Adelaide NE Busway

Brisbane SE Busway

Sydney T-Ways

Source: Currie, G. and Delbosc A (2011) ‘Understanding bus rapid transit route ridership drivers: An empirical study of Australian BRT systems’ TRANSPORT POLICY Volume 18, Issue 5, September 2011, Pages 755‐764

20

In general our bus service level is poor compared to world practice

20

Source: Pan D (2013) ‘Key Transport Statistics of World Cities’ Journeys Sept 2013

21

Tram services are struggling in growing traffic congestion

21

Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing

Transport Congestion

22

Melbourne is the worlds biggest “streetcar” system

167

7166

4944

3125 24 24 23

1814 13 12

9 9

1 1 0

17

4 4 3 1

48

41

9 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

MELBOURNE

TORONTO

Dusseldorf

Bochum

Essen

Duisburg

Frankfurt/Main

Dortmund

Mulheim

Cologne

Hanover

Mannheim

Karlsruhe (VBK)

Stuttgart

Bonn SWB

Bielefeld

Bonn SSB

Saarbruchen

Nantes

IDF

Grenoble

Lyon

Montoellier

Orleans

Rouen

Strasbourg

Sheffield

Croydon

Manchester

Nottingham

West Midlands

Tyne and Wear

San Francisco

Philadelphia

Salt Lake City

San Diego

Sacramento

Galveston

Pittsburgh

Memphis

Baltimore

Dallas

Newark

Kenosha

Boston

Detroit

Portland

Los Angeles

St. Louis

San Jose

Cleveland

Denver

New Orleans

Buffalo

Newark

Seattle

Tram Track Km in Mixed Traffic

German Cities French Cities UK Cities USA Cities

Melbourne

Toronto

Source: Currie G and Shalaby A (2007) ‘Success and Challenges in Modernising Streetcar Systems – Experience in Melbourne and Toronto’ Transportation Research Record No 2006 Transportation Research Board Washington DC ISSN 0361-1981 pp 31-39 2007

23

24

Mixed Traffic service impedes performance

4034

3231

3030

2626

2525

2522

2121

212121

2020

2020

19191919

19181818

181818

1818181717171717

1717171717

1716

1616

16161616

1515151515

1515

14141414

1413

1212

1010

9

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Skagen,

Guadalajara,

Toulouse,

Washington,

Laon,

Stut tgart ,

Hong Kong,

Strasbourg,

New York,

M annheim,

Los Angeles,

Rotterdam,

Tunis,

Hong Kong,

M ainz,

Heidelberg

M unich,

Riga,

Berlin,

Oslo,

Paris,

Budapest,

Zwickau,

Constanta,

Amsterdam,

Creil,

Vienna,

Zagreb,

Genève

M ELBOURNE

Torino,

Toronto,

Tallinn,

Würzburg,

M ilano,

Lisbon,

Average Speed (KPH)Source: UITP Databank

Average Operating Speeds – World Tram/Light Rail Systems

City/ System

Melbourne (15/16 kph)

Melbourne Tram Reliability

• 33% of services are considered to be NOT running on time

• On time defined as arriving more than 1 min early of more than 6 mins late

Source: Track Record

25

Better performing railways are built on new not old infrastructure and strong resilience/reliability

33

45

52.6

55

20 30 40 50 60

Melbourne

Singapore

Hong Kong

Perth

Average Speed (Kph)

Av. Speed (Kph)

15

50

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Melbourne

Sydney

Best Practice

Singapore

Hong Kong

Breakdowns in Service (000 kms)

Av. Speed (Kph)

NeverRecorded

26

...yet expanding rail, thus making it more complex, has been our approach to mass transit expansion

27

Unplanned disruptions are common; e.g. reported signal faults; 1,900 p.a. (5+/day)

27

Source: Adam Carey, The Age, ‘Signal failures are causing chronic rail delays’ 23/10/2013

Reported Signaling Disruptions

• 1,900 signal failures p.a. (12 months to August 2013)

• 5.2 per day

• Biggest Locations:

• Flinders Street Station 89

• North Melbourne 71

• Newport 51

Metro Trains

"We are installing advanced computer technology which improves control of the signalling system, but our field equipment is outdated and requires replacing,"

28

Melbourne rail demand growth has been impressive by any standard

127.9131.8 133.8 134.9

146.0

162.4

178.6

201.2

213.9219.3

228.9222

225.5

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Year

History of Rail Patronage - Melbourne

Rail Demand M tripsp.a.

Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports

29

However the rail network has reached capacity

30

How Transit Orientated is Melbourne Development?

30

Source: Cervero and Kockleman (1997)

Density– the concentration and compactness of development within geographic space

Diversity– the land use mix including the balance and compatabilityof users with each other (and transit)

Design– which relates how the various land uses are combined,linked and presentedin terms of ease of access and attractiveness

31

Source: Aston L, Currie G and K Pavkova (2016) ) ‘Does Transit Mode Influence the Transit-Orientation of Urban Development? - An Empirical Study’ JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY Vol 55 (2016) pp83-91

The Transit Orientation of Development – OVERALL Melbourne – only in central areas

32

So what do passengers think about these issues?

33

Source: Currie G Delbosc A (2015) Variation in Perceptions of Urban Public Transport Performance Between International Cities Using Spiral Plot Analysis' TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD

‐2.5

‐2

‐1.5

‐1

‐0.5

0

0.5

Safe at night

Reliability

Frequency

Safe during day

PT available where and when needed

Deal with disruptions quickly

Get to stops/stations

Quality of service

Make connections

Available on weekends

Get information about PT

Disruptions don't happen oftenMeet costs

Information to plan journey

People I care for can use it safely

Available at night

Ease of buying/using ticket

Overcrowding

Staff curteous and friendly

Physical access

Can make trips to new places on PT

Travel time compared to car

Comfortable with strangers on PT

Boston Brisbane London Melbourne New York

Perth San Francisco Sydney Toronto Average

Highest ImportanceLowest Importance

PERFORMANCE MINUS IMPORTANCE RATINGS

SPIRAL PLOT

34

Introduction




The Future

35

Growth in urban travel and car ownership continues to rise

• Since 1996 car travel has increased at 1.9% p.a. (Challenge Melbourne -issues in metropolitan planning for the 21st century Oct 2000)

• Forecasts suggest metropolitan travel will increase by around 20% by 2020 without action to address current trends (NCCC Study)

36

• Melbourne road freight movements total around 170M tonnes p.a.. This has grown by 120% between 1971 and 1997.

• Truck traffic forecast to double over the next 20 years (Challenge Melbourne)

• The efficient movement of commercial traffic has been directly linked to a competitive economy and the affordability of consumer products

Meanwhile road freight volume is expected to double in 20 years

37

We have also stopped being active – this has led to ‘the epidemic of obesity’

Lifestyle underpins Australia's growing obesity problemThe Dieticians Association of Australia says television and less active lifestyles have contributed to increased rates of obesity.

The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) has released a report showing nine million adult Australians carry excess weight.

The report estimates at least 16 per cent of men and 17 per cent of women are obese, with a further 42 per cent of men and 25 per cent of women considered overweight.

Ms Collins says lifestyles have changed significantly over the last century.

"We use our cars more, most people have jobs where they sit down, most of us don't do as much work around the house, or even the yard.

"There just aren't the same opportunities to be active."

Source: ABC News Online – September 2003

38

Road dominates increasing greenhouse emissions - BIG change is needed to meet the ‘Stern’ Target

Transport emissions - actuals and forecast

Passenger cars

Trucks

Light comm vehBuses AviationRail

Shipping

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

CO

2-e

Road Transport Emissions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MT

CO

2-e

Targeting SternForecast (with measures)

Actual

17 Mt further reduction measures

89%RoadTransport

Source: Australian Greenhouse Office (2006) Source: Bus Association of Victoria (2007)

To stabilise at 450ppm CO2e, without overshooting, global emissions would need to peak in the next 10 years and then fall at more than 5% per year, reaching 70% below current levels by 2050. - Sir Nicholas Stern

39

Research suggests that as fuel prices rise a high share of Melbourne residents are being marginalised

Melbourne

Source: Dodson J and Sipe N (2006) Shocking the Suburbs: Urban location, housing debt and oil vulnerability in the Australian City- ‘vulnerability assessment for mortgage, petrol and inflation risks and expenditure’ (VAMPIRE).

40

Monash research has highlighted ‘forced car ownership’ in fringe urban Australia

Key Findings - FCO

• Over 20,000 Melbourne households with income <$500/week running 2+ cars

• Zero/Very Low Public Transport

• ‘Forced Car Ownership’ – No choice

• Growing as fuel prices rise

• Even modest public transport access can reduce forced car ownership

Source: Currie and Senbergs (2007)

41

Introduction




The Future

42

Since 2001 PT service increased 63% (66% bus/ 36% rail, 10% tram) but ‐but population growth continues at a faster pace…

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

2001

-2

2002

-3

2003

-4

2004

-5

2005

-6

2006

-7

2007

-8

2008

-9

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16e

2016

-17e

Rail Tram Bus Total

Index of Public Transport Service Kms p.a (2001-2=100)

Year

Veh

icle

Km

s p.

a. (

2001

-2=

100)

3.6 3.63.6

3.73.8

3.83.9

4.04.1

4.24.3

4.34.4

4.54.6

4.7

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

2001-2

2003-4

2005-6

2007-8

2009-10

2011-12

2013-14

2015-

16e

520

Population Growth (M)

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

(M)


43

…in last 10 years, per capita service increased to 22% but declined since 2011 (we have gone down by 9% points); recent trend is flat


100102 102

100102

105107

112114

121122

119

114113 113 113

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16e

2016-17e

Year

Relative Service Level Per Head

Service Levels (Vkms supplied)Per Capita

44

Melbourne is expected to increase in size by another 1‐2M people in 20‐30 years

0.35

0.67

0.98

1.27

1.55

1.82

2.08

2.33

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Growth(M)

Year

Source: Victoria in Future (2012)

Forecast Melbourne Population Growth

Population GrowthTotal (M)

45

Melbourne Metro; exciting but capacity upgrade is long overdue now –current start date is 2026!

46

Melbourne rail grade separations; exciting some capacity relief but not an increase in service

47

Monash Research – Delay Impacts of Grade crossings in Melbourne

Source: PhD research of Phuoc Quy Duy Nguyen

Frequency of train (trains/peak hours)

Increase in travel time causedby level crossings (%)

Localised variation in traffic travel time delay caused by at grade rail crossings

48

Where is tram and bus priority? – SmartBus; downgraded?

49

www.worldtransitresearch.info

9

5050

ALSO: NEW PTRG WEBSITEPTRG.INFO

51

Join the ITS (Monash) LinkedIn group to keep informed of our activities

10

Public Transport Issues in...

Documents

Transcript of Public Transport Issues in...