Post on 05-Jan-2016
Public Opinion in SerbiaPublic Opinion in Serbia Attitudes towards the Hague Attitudes towards the Hague
TribunalTribunal
SMMRISMMRI
July, 2003July, 2003
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsBelgrade Centre for Human Rights
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 2
MethodologyMethodology
• Realization: Field work realized from 19 –22 July, 2003• Target population: 18+ / Serbia without Kosmet• Sample - size: 1545• Sample - type: Three-stage stratified sample • Sample - stages:
– Units of the first stage: Electoral places territory (PPS)– Units of the second stage: Households (SRSWoR – random
walk)– Units of the third stage: Respondents within a household
(SRSWoR – Kish scheme)• Type of research: Omnibus, face to face survey• Poststratification: By gender, age and region• Error: +/-1% for phenomena with incidence of 3%
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 3
ContentsContentsPolitical environmentPolitical environmentAttitudes towards international community Attitudes towards international community institutionsinstitutions – – Does the Hague Tribunal Does the Hague Tribunal threatenthreaten the security of the security of SSeerbirbiaa Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal
The level of being informed about the institution of The level of being informed about the institution of the Hague Tribunalthe Hague TribunalImportance and attitudes towards cooperation with Importance and attitudes towards cooperation with the Hague Tribunalthe Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Prosecutor and judges Attitudes towards the Prosecutor and judges Confidence in the Hague TribunalConfidence in the Hague TribunalInfluence of the trials on the attitudes towards the Influence of the trials on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and towards the guilt of the indictedHague Tribunal and towards the guilt of the indicted PotenPotential for change of the attitudestial for change of the attitudes
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 4
Political environmentPolitical environment
After the optimism during the emergency state, all indicators of the attitudes towards general situation in the country have decreased, and returned to the level from February, before the assassination of Prime Minister Djindjić: evaluation of direction in which Serbia is heading (45% of citizens perceive it as bad), personal living standard since the change of regime (only 24% feel it as being better), expectations for the next 6 months (30% expect improvement).
Rating of Democratic Party constantly decreases, G17+, DSS and SRS increase
40% of population would not entrust to any of the politicians the position of the President of Serbia; the most trusted with this respect are Koštunica and Labus, but the former by only 17%, and the latter by 15% of population
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 5
Political environmentPolitical environment In which direction is Serbia headedIn which direction is Serbia headed ... ...
57%
52%
36% 39%
39%
47%48%
44%
39%
40%
38% 38% 38%40%
38%
44%
56%
42%
66%
65%
54%45%
38%37%
35%
47%46%44%
30%32%27%
29%
35%
26%
21%
42%
46%
16%
16%
24%
maj-01
jul-01
avg-01
sep-01
no
v-01
jan-02
mar-02
maj-02
jun
-02
jul-02
Avg
-02
no
v-02
dec-03
jan-03
feb-03
mar-03
apr-03
Maj-03
jun
-03
jul-03
Right directionWrong direction
Basic indicator of general situation which, as a rule, is parallel with confidence in regime, and which used to be parallel with rating of the assassinated Prime Minister Djindjić, started to decrease abruptly after the state of emergency was over. In July, this indicator is back to the level from before the Djindjic’s assassination.
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 6
Political environmentPolitical environment Since electionsSince elections in in DecemberDecember 2000, 2000, have your personal have your personal
standard beenstandard been......
During the period of optimism which characterized the state of emergency, personal living standard was perceived as better, but, with decrease of optimism the same standard is perceived as less favorable
20
21
35
35
26
23
24
40
35
38
39
42
36
37
36
40
25
23
28
37
37
jan-03
feb-03
mar-03
apr-03
May-03
jun-03
jul-03
Better The same Worse
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 7
Political environmentPolitical environment Standard, Standard, expectations for the nextexpectations for the next 6 6
monthsmonths
In the period of optimism expectations for the future were much higher; in July they were below the level recorded before the assassination of Zoran Djindjić
27%
41%
42%
31%
27%
23%
40%
41%
40%
42%
42%
42%
28%
14%
12%
19%
25%
30%
feb-03
mar-03
apr-03
Maj-03
jun-03
jul-03
Improvement StagnationWorsening
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 8
Political environmentPolitical environment : Support of political partiesSupport of political parties
Right after the assassination of Prime Minister Djindjić, the rating of Democratic Party abruptely increased, but, with the overall fall of optimism and confidence, it has been constantly decreasing.
32
35
7
14
31 35
36
2
31
247
161616
21
35
1235
8
14
27
1
22
15
11
5 3 2
18
47
1213.5
10.5
25
22
5
11
20
15
12
ne znaSSJSPOSPSSRSG17+DSSDS
Mar-03
Apr-03
Maj - 03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Feb-03 21-24 /II
22-25/III
17-21/V
19-22/IV
19-23/VI
Party they would vote for if elections were held on Sunday
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 9
Political environmentPolitical environment : Whom they would assign as the President of Whom they would assign as the President of
the Republicthe Republic
More than 40% of the citizens do not trust any politician enough to entrust him the position of the President of the Republic
2
3
2
1
3
5
2
2
17
15
14
41
14
14
45
1715
12
12
48
5
4
2
2
Vojislav Koštunica
Miroljub Labus
B.Tadić
V.Šešelj
Mićunović
S.Milošević
Other
NO ONE
may
jun
jul
%
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 10
Attitudes towards international community Attitudes towards international community institutionsinstitutions
Does the Hague Tribunal threaten the Does the Hague Tribunal threaten the safety of Serbiasafety of Serbia
Right until the assassination of Zoran Djindjić, the Hague Tribunal, besides NATO, and even in somewhat higher percentage, was the only international institution which was perceived as threatening for the safety of Serbia by more than one half of population
After the state of emergency, in May, percent of population which perceived the Hague Tribunal as threatening decreased to 40%, but still, together with NATO, it kept its convincing first position as the most threatening international institution
The strongest feeling of Serbia being threated by Hague Tribunal was found among the supporters of SRS and SPS; the same feeling was found among more than half of DSS supporters, and the least among DS and G17+ supporters (however, even among them somewhat above ¼ perceive the Hague Tribunal as threatening for Serbia)
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 11
Attitudes towards international community institutionsAttitudes towards international community institutions Does the Hague Tribunal threaten the safety Does the Hague Tribunal threaten the safety
of Serbiaof Serbia
Citizens feel the Hague Tribunal as even more threating for Serbia than NATO
%
3322
2815
3318
2317
5445
5125
4937
4622
6654
5829
5155
73
4057
6364
1620
2543
182426
40
1315
2035
39
Doesn't Endanger Endangers
EUEU
OSCEOSCE
UNSCUNSC
NATONATO
The HagueThe HagueTribunalTribunal
December 00December 01January 03May 03
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 12
Attitudes towards international community institutionsAttitudes towards international community institutions Does the Hague Tribunal threaten the safety Does the Hague Tribunal threaten the safety
of Serbiaof Serbia
The feeling of being threatened by the Hague Tribunal was found the most among the supporters of SRS and SPS, and the least among the supporters of DS and G17+
37%
69%
85%
89%
40%
42%
70%
92%
84%
27%
52%
64%
73%
28%
DS
G17+
DSS
SPS
SRS
1-Dec 3-Jan Maj 03
Feeling of being threatened by political commitment
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 13
Attitudes towards the Hague Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalTribunal
The level of being informed about the institution of the Hague The level of being informed about the institution of the Hague
TribunalTribunal
Just 6% of population consider themselves well informed about the institution of the Hague Tribunal
The best known are the Chief prosecutor Carla del Ponte and judge Richard May
45% of population are aware that UN is the founder of the Hague Tribunal, but less than ¼ are aware of the fact that Slobodan Milošević was the one who agreed to cooperate in the name of Yugoslavia
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 14
Attitudes towards the Hague Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalTribunal
The level of being informed about the institution of the Hague The level of being informed about the institution of the Hague
TribunalTribunal
A little35%
Pretty much5%
Both yes and no26%
Much1%
Very little33%
64%
6%
Majority of the citizens consider their knowledge about the Hague Tribunal as small or very small
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 15
Attitudes towards the Hague Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalTribunal
The level of being informed about the institution of the Hague The level of being informed about the institution of the Hague
TribunalTribunal
Just 7% of population knew the full name of the Hague Tribunal, specifying that this is a Tribunal for War Crimes in Former Yugoslavia
45% of population know that UN is the founder of the Hague Tribunal, but just 17% know that this is the UN Security Council
45%
27%
19%
7%InternationalTribunal for WarCrimes in FormerYU
InternationalTribunal for WarCrimes
The Hague Tribunal
Doesn't know27%
28%
17%
13%
9%
6% EU
NATO
USA
UN Security Council
UN
Doesn't know
45%
What is the full name of What is the full name of the the Hague TribunalHague Tribunal??
Who is the founder of the HTWho is the founder of the HT??
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 16
Attitudes towards the Hague Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalTribunal
The level of being informed about the institution of the Hague The level of being informed about the institution of the Hague
TribunalTribunal
Majority of population know the name of the chief judge in trial against Milošević, but even higher percentage of them know the function of Carla del Ponte
39%
60%
Karla Del Ponte
Richard May
Doesn't know16%
80%
4%
Other
Chief Prosecutor
Doesn't know
What is the name of chief judgeWhat is the name of chief judgeinin trial against trial against Slobodan Milošević?Slobodan Milošević?
What is the function ofWhat is the function ofCarla del Ponte?Carla del Ponte?
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 17
Attitudes towards the Hague Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalTribunal
The level of being informed about the institution of the Hague The level of being informed about the institution of the Hague
TribunalTribunal
Just one in four or five adult citizens of Serbia know that Slobodan Milošević agreed to cooperation with the Hague Tribunal in name of Yugoslavia
Other2%
Slobodan Milošević
23%
Vojislav Koštunica3% Zoran Ðindjić
14%
Goran Svilanović2%
Doesn't know56%
Who is our politician who agreed in name of Yugoslavia to Who is our politician who agreed in name of Yugoslavia to cooperation with the Hague after its establishmentcooperation with the Hague after its establishment??
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 18
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Importance and attitudes towards cooperation with the Importance and attitudes towards cooperation with the
Hague TribunalHague Tribunal When talking spontaneously about major
problems in Serbia at this moment, the citizens rarely mention the Hague Tribunal (1%), but, on the other hand, around 60% consider it as an important problem when asked directly
Majority of population support cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, and this percent has considerably increased over the past two years, however, only 15% think that the reason for cooperation should be justice
More than one half of population think that Serbia should not cooperate in locating Karadžić and Mladić: 20% of population think that they are not guilty, while 15% think that trial in The Hague Tribunal wouldn’t be fair
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 19
Just 1% of the citizens spontaneously mention cooperation with the Hague Tribunal as one of the main problems which Serbia is faced with at this moment.
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Importance and attitudes towards cooperation with the Importance and attitudes towards cooperation with the
Hague TribunalHague Tribunal
40
31
20
14
6
3
3
Unemployment
Low standard
Economy
Ruinedeconomy
Privatization
Agriculture
Slow reformsEconomy
18
4
4
3
3
1
1
Politicalconflicts
Kosovo andthe South of
Serbia
Foreignpolitics
The HagueTribunal Politics
15
14
5
3
4
3
2
Crime
Socialproblems
Mentality,discipline...
Publichealth,
educationSocialproblems
What are the main problems which Serbia is facing at this moment?
Spontaneous answers (possibility of 3 answers)% % %
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 20
Majority of citizens consider cooperation with the Hague Tribunal as important for their future, but in a much lesser percentage than other important problems. Cooperation with the Hague Tribunal is considered as the most important factor for admission in EU.
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Importance and attitudes towards cooperation with the Importance and attitudes towards cooperation with the
Hague TribunalHague Tribunal Rated importance of the mentioned problems for
citizens’ near future
90
86
77
73
61
59
2
3
7
5
13
13
Economicproblems
Crime/ corruption
Conflictsbetween leaders
and parties
Relations withinternationalcommunity
operation withthe Hague
Tribunl
Relationsbetween Serbiaand Montenegro
Unimportant Important
Rated importance of cooperation with the HT for
other problems in Serbia
73
67
64
61
34
7
8
11
14
32
Admission inEU
Admission inPartnershipfor Peace
Cooperationwith USA
Economicdevelopment
Relations withAlbanians,Croats andBosniaks
Unimportant Important% %
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 21
85% of population think that it is necessary to cooperate, but just 15% find the reason for cooperation in justice, while as much as 41% support minimum of cooperation, just to the extent necessary to avoid sanctions
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Importance and attitudes towards cooperation with the Importance and attitudes towards cooperation with the
Hague TribunalHague Tribunal
15%
29%41%
14%
2%
we shouldcooperate for
justice to be done
we shouldcooperate because
this is aprerequisite for
Serbia'sreintegration into
the world
we shouldcooperate only to
the extentnecessary to avoid
sanctions
we should notcooperate, atwhatever cost
Doesn't know
WE SHOULD COOPERATEWE SHOULDN’T COOPERATE
MOTIVES FOR COOPERATION
85%
JUSTICE
70%
UTILITARIAN REASONS15%
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 22
During the past 2 years the percent of people accepting the necessity of cooperation with the Hague Tribunal have increased: Although utilitarian reasons influenced the change of attitude of 35% of people in the direction of accepting the necessity of extradition of the accused, another 35% in May 2001 still thought that the accused Serbs shouldn’t be extradited even at the cost of new sanctions, while only 14% in July 2003 are of this opinion
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Importance and attitudes towards cooperation with the Importance and attitudes towards cooperation with the
Hague TribunalHague Tribunal
12
5424
10
Yes, it shouldYes some, but not allNone should be extraditedIndecisive
1835
47
Should extraditeShould not extraditeIndecisive
Should Serbia extradite the indicted Serbs to the Hague?
If Serbia had two possibilities, which one would you chose?
1. It should not extradite the indicted Serbs to the Hague even if it were again exposed to sanctions2. It should extradite the indicted Serbs to the Hague and avoid sanctions
MAY 2001
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 23
Just one in 6 or 7 citizens thinks that the accused should be extradited because they are guilty, while one in 3 or 4 citizens thinks that they shouldn’t be extradited because the Hague Tribunal wouldn’t be fair
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Attitudes towards guilt of the accused and their Attitudes towards guilt of the accused and their
extraditionextradition
Yes, because they are guilty, and people
shouldn't be in trouble on their account
15%
Doesn't know3%
No, because, even if they are guilty, the HT
would't secure a fair trial28%
Yes, because this is the only way for the whole world to hear the truth
about Serbia16%
Yes, because even if they are not guilty they
shouldn't create problems to their
people21%
No, because they are not guilty
17%
Should the accused voluntarily surrender to the Should the accused voluntarily surrender to the Hague TribunalHague Tribunal??
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 24
More than one half of population think that at least one accused from the list should not have been extradited, while one in 3 or 4 citizens believes that at least one of them is not a war criminal
48%
37%
37%
36%
34%
31%
31%
37%
6%
Šljivancanin
Milutinovic
Sešelj
Ojdanic
Miloševic
Stanišic
Šainovic
All of them should havebeen extradited
Doesn't know 49%
21% 23%
Because they are not war criminals
Because the HT will not be fair
Because other peoples from former YU don'textradite their war criminals
57%
57%
of
pop
ula
tion
men
tion
at
least
on
e o
f th
e a
ccu
sed
fr
om
th
e m
en
tion
ed
lis
t
Why shouldn’t they have been extradited?
Answers of 57% of population who mentioned at least 1 accused from the list
28%Of total
population12%
Of totalpopulation
13%Of total
population
Are there any accused who shouldn’t have been extraditedAre there any accused who shouldn’t have been extradited to the to the Hague TribunalHague Tribunal??
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Attitudes towards guilt of the accused and their Attitudes towards guilt of the accused and their
extraditionextradition
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 25
More than one half of population think that Serbia should not cooperate in locating Karadžić and Mladić
Yes22%
No59%
Doesn't know19%
Should Serbia cooperate in locatingShould Serbia cooperate in locating Karadžić Karadžić andand Mladić? Mladić?
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Attitudes towards guilt of the accused and their Attitudes towards guilt of the accused and their
extraditionextradition
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 26
Just 8% of population think that we should cooperate in locating Karadžić and Mladić because they are guilty for war crimes, while 20% of population think that we shouldn’t cooperate because they are not guiltyOne in 6 or 7 citizens thinks that we shouldn’t cooperate in extradition because trial in the HT will not be fair
Attitudes towards guilt of the accused and their Attitudes towards guilt of the accused and their
extraditionextradition WhyWhy S Seerbia rbia shouldshould / / shouldn’tshouldn’t cooperate in locatingcooperate in locating Karadžić Karadžić
andand Mladić? Mladić?
63%
37%
Because this isthe only wayfor Serbia toreintegrate ininternationalcommunity
Because theyare guilty forwar crimesand justicehas to be done
Answers of 22% of population who think that Serbia should cooperate in extradition
25%
28%
34%
Because other exYU peoples don'textradite theirs
Because trial inthe HT would notbe fair
Because they arenot war criminals
Answers of 59% of population who think that Serbia shouldn’tshouldn’t cooperate in cooperate in
extraditionextradition
14%
Of total
population
8%
Of total
population
16%
Of total
population
15%
Of total
population
20%
Of total
population
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 27
Although majority of the citizens consider themselves as badly informed, just a slight percent of them didn’t have an attitude on the Hague Tribunal or refused to express it
Majority of population have an expressively negative attitude towards the Hague Tribunal, even more so towards the Prosecutor Carla del Ponte
The Hague Tribunal is criticized for biasness, and Carla del Ponte for partiality
Just one in 10 citizens of Serbia believes that Serbian citizens will have an unbiased trial
More than 80% of population believe that the accused Serbs are in more unfavorable position than any other nationality on trial
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:: Attitudes towards Prosecutor and judges in the Attitudes towards Prosecutor and judges in the
Hague TribunalHague Tribunal
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 28
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:: Attitudes towards Prosecutor and judges in the Attitudes towards Prosecutor and judges in the
Hague TribunalHague Tribunal
Majority of population have an expressively negative attitude towards the Hague Tribunal, even more so towards the Prosecutor
2014
8 815 16
6358
Tribunal Prosecutor
Negative
Neutral
Positive
Doesn'tknow
Appraisal of Tribunal and the ProsecutorAppraisal of Tribunal and the Prosecutor – – general impressiongeneral impression
% % of of negative negative gradesgrades
%%
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 29
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:: Attitudes towards Prosecutor and judges in the Attitudes towards Prosecutor and judges in the
Hague TribunalHague Tribunal
Supporters of DOS parties and G17+ have a considerably more positive attitude the judges and the Chief Prosecutor, but, even within this segment of population negative attitudes considerably exceed positive attitudes, especially those towards the Chief Prosecutor
82
82
77
57
48
38
37
1
0
1
4
17
12
30
SPS/JUL
SRS/SSJ
DSS
Indecisive
G17+
DS
Other DOSparties
Appraisal of work of HT judgesAppraisal of work of HT judges Appraisal ofAppraisal of Carla Del Ponte Carla Del Ponte’s work’s work
87
85
80
58
53
47
48
5
1
4
4
15
11
20
SPS/JUL
SRS/SSJ
DSS
Indecisive
G17+
DS
Other DOSparties
% Negative % Positive% Negative % Positive
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 30
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:: Attitudes towards Prosecutor and judges in the Attitudes towards Prosecutor and judges in the
Hague TribunalHague Tribunal
The highesti % of negative grades given to the judges were for impartiality, and to the Prosecutor for objectivityThe prosecutor was graded much more negatively than the judges
46
51
55
56
57
19
15
11
12
11
Respect ofhyman rights
Giving chanceto Defense
Efficiency
Fairness of trial
Impartiality
Appraisal of work of HT judgesAppraisal of work of HT judges Appraisal ofAppraisal of Carla Del Ponte Carla Del Ponte’s work’s work
59
63
65
69
9
9
6
6
Respect ofhuman rights
Cooperationwith Serbia
Choice ofwitnesses
Objectivity
% Negative % Positive% Negative % Positive
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 31
Distrust in impartiality of the Hague Tribunal concerning the accused Serbs exceeds negative grades for general impartiality (69% against 57%)
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:: Confidence in the Hague TribunalConfidence in the Hague Tribunal
Both yes and no19%
Doesn't know2%
Trust10%
Distrust69%
Confidence that the trials of the accused Serbs in the Confidence that the trials of the accused Serbs in the HHague ague TTribunalribunal will be impartial will be impartial
57 11
Negative Positive
% grades for impartiality in general
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 32
Even among supporters of DOS and G17+ , as the segment of population with the highest confidence in the Hague Tribunal, higher percentage of distrust in impartiality is expressed concerning trials of Serb nationals than in impartiality in general
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:: Confidence in the Hague TribunalConfidence in the Hague Tribunal
Confidence that the trials of the accused Serbs in the HT Confidence that the trials of the accused Serbs in the HT will be impartialwill be impartial
94
92
83
72
57
50
49
4
3
4
6
18
14
26
SPS/JUL
SRS/SSJ
DSS
Indecisive
G17+
DS
Other DOSparties
Distrust Trust%
4
3
3
7
22
28
17
85
80
79
55
46
42
35
SRS/SSJ
SPS/JUL
DSS
Indecisive
G17+
Other DOSparties
DS
Grades for impartiality in generalNegative Positive
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 33
Around one half of population think that partiality of the Hague Tribunal is best reflected in bigger number of the accused Serbs in comparison to the accused of other nationalitiesBigger partiality is attributed to the process of indictment than to the trial process
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:: Confidence in the Hague TribunalConfidence in the Hague Tribunal
What is the best reflection of partiality towards the accused What is the best reflection of partiality towards the accused SerbsSerbs
49,8%
16,2%
13,2%
9,7%
8,0%
3,0%
Bigger number of theaccused Serbs
Bigger importance ofthe accused Serbs
Less objective trialsagainst Serbs
Stricter verdicts forSerbs
Less objectiveindictments
Doesn't know
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 34
82% of population think that the accused Serbs are in the most unfavorable position, while the most favorable position is attributed to Albanians
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:: Confidence in the Hague TribunalConfidence in the Hague Tribunal
Rank of the accused according to favorableRank of the accused according to favorable – – unfavorableunfavorable position in front of the Hague Tribunalposition in front of the Hague Tribunal
1% 1% 1%1%
36%
26%
9%
1%
24%
18%
1%
17%
42%
82%
27%
10%
Serbs Bosniaks Croats Albanians
Most unfavorable
Rank 2
Rank 3
Most favorable
11% of population thinkthat all the accused are inthe same position
3,4
2,92,6
1,1
Serbs Bosniaks Croats Albanians
unfa
vora
ble
favo
rabl
e
Average rank
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 35
In contrast to the first appearance of Slobodan Milošević in front of the Hague Tribunal, in February, 2002, when more than 60% of population watched at least a part of the TV broadcast, today much smaller percent watches trial against Milošević in the Hague (11%)
Effect of the first Milošević’s appearance was rise of his rating as a politician, and average grade for his appearance was very good, 3.76 (on the scale from 1 to 5).
Supporters of SRS and SPS get informed and follow the trial on TV much more than the supporters of other political parties, therefore, it is not unusual that, from the aspect of population, more distrust towards the Hague Tribunal is expressed by citizens who get more informed
Influence of the trial process on Influence of the trial process on the the attitudes attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the
indictedindicted
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 36
More than one half of population claim that course of trial against Milošević had no influence on change of their attitude towards his guilt, 18% changed the attitude in direction of his innocence, why just 11% in direction of guilt
Just 8% of the citizens trust witnesses of the prosecution, 70% don’t trust them at all, or trust them a little
Albanian witnesses are the least trusted, but Serbian witnesses are trusted by just slightly above 1/5 of population
Just 7% of population state that at least some testimony has influenced the change or their attitude towards the Hague Tribunal in positive direction
Influence of the trial process on Influence of the trial process on the the attitudes attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the
indictedindicted
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 37
Milošević’s first appearance in the Hague was watched, at least partly, by more than one half of population, which brought to Milošević not only a very good average score for appearance, but also an abrupt rise of positive grades for him as a politician, the first time after the change of regime in 2000.
Influence of the trial process on Influence of the trial process on the the attitudes attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the
indictedindicted
43%populacij
e
19%populacij
e
7%populacij
e
64.5%
50.3%
46.7%
15February -
4th DAY
14February -3rd DAY
13February -2nd DAY
Percentage of population in Serbia who watched at least one direct broadcast of Milošević’s first appearance in the Hague (SMMRI CATI, Feb. 2002)
Segment of population who watched at least a part of TV broadcast
Average score (1 to 5) Milošević as a politician 2.502.50
Average score (1 to 5) for appearance in the Hague 3. 3. 7676
0
5
10
15
20
25
No
v-01
Jan
-02
Mar
-02
May
-02
Jul-
02
Sep
-02
No
v-02
Jan
-03
Mar
-03
May
-03
Jul-
03
Beginning of trialand TV broadcast
February 2002
Šešelj’s arrivalIn the Hague
February 2003
% of positive grades for Milošević
November 2001-July 2003(SMMRI monthly Omnibus)
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 38
Majority of people get scantly informed about the trial processes in the Hague, and now they rarely follow the trial process against Slobodan Milošević
Influence of the trial process on Influence of the trial process on the the attitudes attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the
indictedindicted
Pretty
much/much
11%
Both yes
and no
20%
Little/no
69%
Often / regularly
8%Occasionally
26%
No / rarely66%
How much do you get informed / watch the trials in the Hague Tribunal?
How much do you watch the trialAgainst Slobodan Milošević on TV?
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 39
Within the segment of population which gets informed about the Hague trials the most, there exists a higher level of distrust in impartiality of the trials against the accused Serbs, most probably because supporters of SPS and SRS are the most interested in the trials.
Influence of the trial process on Influence of the trial process on the the attitudes attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the
indictedindicted
69% 69% 75%
20% 19% 10%
9% 12% 15%
No/ a little Both yes and no Prettymuch/ much
Distrust Neutral Trust Doesn't know
80%
79%
70%
67%
59%
49%
46%
14%
13%
25%
22%
28%
26%
21%
6%
8%
5%
11%
13%
25%
34%
Indecisive
DS
Other DOS
G17+
DSS
SRS/ SSJ
SPS/ JUL
No/ a little Both yes and no Pretty much/ much
How much do you get informed about the Hague trials?
Confidence that the accused Serbs will be tried fairly
How much do you get informed about the Hague trials?
48%Of
population
14%Of
population
8%Of
population
2%2%
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 40
Within the segment of population who watch trial against Milošević the most, there exists a higher level of distrust in impartiality of the trials against the accused Serbs, most probably because supporters of SPS and SRS watch the trial against Milosevic the most.
Influence of the trial process on Influence of the trial process on the the attitudes attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the
indictedindicted
66% 74%83%
22%16%
6%10% 10% 11%
No/ a little Both yes and no Prettymuch/ much
Distrust Neutral Trust Doesn't know
75%
73%
68%
65%
59%
46%
36%
20%
22%
26%
32%
33%
35%
33%
4%
6%
6%
3%
8%
20%
31%
Indecisive
DS
G17+
Other DOS
DSS
SRS/ SSJ
SPS/ JUL
No/ a little Both yes and no Pretty much/ much
How much do you get informed about the trial against Milošević on TV?
Confidence that the accused Serbs will be tried fairly
How much do you follow on TV trial against Milošević?
43%populacij
e
19%populacij
e
7%populacij
e
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 41
Just 11% of population have changed their attitude towards Milošević’s guilt in the direction of being even more convicted about his guilt (7%) or, from conviction that he is not guilty to conviction that he is guilty (4%)
Influence of the trial process on Influence of the trial process on the the attitudes attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the
indictedindicted
43%populacij
e
19%populacij
e
7%populacij
e
Has the trial against Has the trial against Milošević Milošević influenced your attitude about his guiltinfluenced your attitude about his guilt??
Doesn't know/watch20%
Yes: Before - guilty, now - not guilty
9%
Yes: Before - guilty, now - even more so
7%
No: He is not guilty17%
No: He is guilty34%
Yes: Before - not guilty, now - even more so
9%
Yes: Before - not guilty, now - guilty
4%
Summary Total
No 51.80%Yes, in direction of guilt 10.60%Yes, in direction of innocence 17.60%Doesn’t know/watch 19.8%
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 42
Majority of the citizens do not trust the truthfulness of the testimonies of the prosecution witnessese
Influence of the trial process on Influence of the trial process on the the attitudes attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the
indictedindicted
43%populacij
e
19%populacij
e
7%populacij
e
How much do you trust witnesses of the prosecution who appeared in courtHow much do you trust witnesses of the prosecution who appeared in courtso far, do you trust the truthfulness of theirso far, do you trust the truthfulness of their testimonytestimony??
A little28%
Not at all42%
Completely2%
Pretty much6%
Both yes and no22%
Trust 8%
Distrust 70%
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 43
Witnesses of Albanian nationality are the least trusted, Serbian witnesses are trusted the most, however, even in case of Serbian witnesses public opinion is divided
Influence of the trial process on Influence of the trial process on the the attitudes attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the
indictedindicted
43%populacij
e
19%populacij
e
7%populacij
e
How much do you trust witnesses of the prosecution of various nationalities, How much do you trust witnesses of the prosecution of various nationalities, do you trust the truthfulness of theirdo you trust the truthfulness of their testimonytestimony??
74% 70% 67%
37%
9% 13% 14%
28%
5% 5% 6%22%
Albanians Croats Bosniaks Serbs
Ne zna
Poverenje
Da i ne
Nepoverenje
Nationality of witnesses
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 44
On the basis of testimonies just 7% of population (approximately one in 14 citizens) changed their attitude towards the Hague Tribunal in positive sense, while 9% (approximately one in 11 citizens) changed their attitude in negative sense.
Influence of the trial process on Influence of the trial process on the the attitudes attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the
indictedindicted
43%populacij
e
19%populacij
e
7%populacij
e
Has any testimony influencedHas any testimony influenced the changethe change of your attitudeof your attitude
towards the Hague Tribunaltowards the Hague Tribunal? ?
How did it change How did it change your attitudeyour attitude? ?
13%
87%
No
Yes
29%
71%
Negative
Positive
9%
of population
7%
of population
Answers of 13% of population who stated that at least onetestimony influenced change of their attitude towards the Hague Tribunal
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 45
Expected objectivity of International Crime Tribunal is usually based on perception of the Hague Tribunal (38%)Somewhat less than 1/3 of population expect that International Crime Tribunal will be more objective than the Hague Tribunal, the biggest part of which (18%) are the citizens who give the Hague negative grades for impartiality
Influence of the attitudes towards the Hague Influence of the attitudes towards the Hague TribunalTribunal onon attitudes towardsattitudes towards International International
Crime TribunalCrime Tribunal
43%populacij
e
19%populacij
e
7%populacij
e
What will the International Crime What will the International Crime TribunalTribunal look like in comparison with look like in comparison with
thethe Hague TribunalHague Tribunal??
30%
38%
4%
28% Doesn't know,hasn;t heard aboutICT
Less objective
The same as theHT
More objective thanthe HT
18%
7%
3%
23%
6%5%
2%1% 1%
Negative Neutral Positive
More objective than theHT
Same as the HT
Less objective
% in population
Assessment of impartiality of the HT
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 46
Classification of population based on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal has shown that it can be divided into 3 classes: 22% with positive attitude, 36% with negative attitude and 41% with ambivalent attitude
The highest degree of agreement in the group of ambivalent citizens has the attitude that their opinion about the Hague would change if some more convincing proofs about their guilt were disclosed
The highest percentage of citizens with positive attitude is found among supporters of DOS parties and G17+, however, within this group, as well as among indecisive voters and DSS supporters, there is the highest percentage of ambivalent attitudes
SPS and SRS supporters have a negative attitude in expressively highest percentage, but, almost one half of DSS supporters also have a negative attitude
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Potential for change of attitudesPotential for change of attitudes
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 47
Most ambivalent is the generation between 40 and 50 years, older population express a dominantly negative attitude, while younger than 40, although dominantly ambivalent, express somewhat more positive attitude
Message which sentencing of the accused Serbs would be communicated to future generations, for most of the people in the segment with positive attitude is the message of justice – war crimes can not remain unpunished; for segment with the negative attitude the message is a shame that Serbia has betrayed its defenders; the ambivalent are divided between justice and injustice, and shame for Serbia and the world
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Potential for change of attitudesPotential for change of attitudes
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 48
On the basis of the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal population is grouped in 3 classes: those with positive attitude 22%, expressively negative 36% and ambivalent attitude as a potential for change of attitude in positive direction, 41%
43%populacij
e
19%populacij
e
7%populacij
e
9% populacije
7% populacije
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Potential for change of attitudesPotential for change of attitudes
0
1
2
3
4
5
Positive attitude Negative attitude Ambivalent attitude
Prosecution is unable to bring convincing witnesses because they don't exis
Trials in the HT are a part of the attempts of international community to subjugate Serbia
The Hague Tribunal does not care about the truth
My attitude would change to the better if they disclosed some more convincing proofs
Trials would be more efficient if Serbia were more willing to cooperate
My objection to the HT is that, being clumsy, they increased Milosevic's popularity
Even the way HT is, it is good that it exists, otherwise the war criminals would remain unpunished,
22%
36% 41%
Average score for agreement with the mentioned attitude by clusters* Agreement
Disagreement
* Cluster centroid – cluster analysis
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 49
In total population, the highest percent of agreement is reached on the attitude that the Hague Tribunal does not care about the truth, but almost half of population agree with the attitude that their opinion about the Hague could change to the better if some more convincing proofs about the guilt of the accused were disclosed
43%populacij
e
19%populacij
e
7%populacij
e
9% populacije
7% populacije
41%
39%
39%
27%
19%
21%
20%
23%
20%
21%
21%
21%
18%
18%
19%
19%
25%
25%
35%
44%
46%
48%
51%17%
Trials in the HT would be much more efficient if Serbia were more willing to cooperate
I object to the HT its clumsiness, due to which it increased Milosevic's popularity,instead of prooving that he is guilty for war crimes
Even the way it is, it's good that the HT exists, otherwise the war criminals wouldprobably remain unpunished
The biggest obstacle to more objective trials in the Hague is the Chief ProsecutorCarla Del Ponte
Prosecution is unable to bring more convincing witnesses because they simply don'texist
Trials in the HT are a part of the attempts of international community to subjugateSerbia
My opinion about the Hague would change to the better if some more convincingproofs about the guilt of the accused were disclosed
The Hague Tribunal does not care about the truth, but to punish the accusedaccording to previously prepared scenario
Disagreement Both yes and no Agreement Doesn't know
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Potential for change of attitudesPotential for change of attitudes
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 50
For segment of population with a positive attitude, sentencing the accused will leave the message of justice being done; for those with negative attitude shame will remain on Serbia for having betrayed its defenders; the ambivalent are divided in their attitudes between justice, injustice, shame for Serbia and shame for the world
43%populacij
e
19%populacij
e
7%populacij
e7%
populacije
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Potential for change of attitudesPotential for change of attitudes
76%
5%8%
19% 21%
6%
30%
6%
29%
21%
30%
66%
Pozitivan stav Negativan stav Ambivalentan stav
War crimes can not remainunpunished
Those who lose a war arethe ones who suffer
Shame will remain onSerbia for betraying thedefenders of Serbianpeople
Shame will remain oninternational community
I don't know/refusal
If the accused Serbs are sentenced, what message will be communicated to future generations?
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 51
Positive attitude, but also a considerable percent of the ambivalent is characteristic for supporters of DOS and G17+Considerable percent of the ambivalent is found among the indecisive citizens and DSS supporters, although the ones with a negative attitude are prevalent
43%populacij
e
19%populacij
e
7%populacij
e7%
populacije
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Potential for change of attitudes Potential for change of attitudes
49%
40%
37%
15%
9%
3%
2%
15%
10%
15%
41%
49%
76%
78%
37%
50%
49%
44%
42%
21%
19%
Other DOS parties
DS
G17+
Indecisive
DSS
SPS/J UL
SRS/SSJ
Positive attitude Negative attitude Ambivalent attitude
Political inclination of population cluster according to attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 52
Female population, more than male, has an ambivalent attitude, and they also have less negative attitude than male populationYounger segment of population, aged 18 to 39, have more positive attitude than population aged 40 +Generation between 40 and 50 years is the most ambivalent, while generation 50+ have a dominantly negative attitude
43%populacij
e
19%populacij
e
7%populacij
e7%
populacije
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Potential for change of attitudesPotential for change of attitudes
Demographic characteristics of population cluster according to their attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal - Gender and age
21%23%
26% 26%
20%18%
21%
40%
32% 31%29%
33%
43% 44%
39%
44%42%
45%47%
39%
35%
Male Female 18 - 29 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 64 65 +
Positive attitude Negative attitude Ambivalent attitude
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 53
The least educated are also the least ambivalent, negative attitude is dominant. The most educated have a positive attitude to a somewhat higher percentage than those with secondary education, but they are almost equally ambivalent as those with secondary education
43%populacij
e
19%populacij
e
7%populacij
e7%
populacije
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Potential for change of attitudesPotential for change of attitudes
Demographic characteristics of population cluster according to attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal - Education
19%23%
27%
44%
34%31%
37%
43%42%
Primary school or trade Secondary school College or university
Positive attitude Negative attitude Ambivalent attitude
Belgrade Centre for Human RightsSMMRI 54
Within urban population positive attitude is prevalent, but there are more of the ambivalent than in other parts of populations. More ambivalent are present in Belgrade, and citizens with negative attitude twice exceed those with positive attitude. In Central Serbia majority of population have negative attitude, and slightly less ambivalent. In Vojvodina ambivalent attitudes are prevalent, but the number with positive and negative attitudes is almost identical.
43%populacij
e
19%populacij
e
7%populacij
e7%
populacije
Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal Potential for change of attitudesPotential for change of attitudes
Demographic characteristics of population cluster according to attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal-Type of settlement and region
24%
20%18%
22%
28%
33%
40%36%
40%
29%
42%40%
46%
39%
43%
Urban Other Belgrade Central Serbia Vojvodina
Positive attitude Negative attitude Ambivalent attitude