Post on 24-Oct-2021
From Technologies to Markets
© 2021
Processor Quarterly Market
Monitor
Computing Service 2021
Sample
2
Apple, Arm, AMD, Global Foundries, Google, HiSilicon, HTC, Huawei, Intel, Lenovo, LG, MediaTek, Meizu, Nvidia, NXP, OPPO, Qualcomm, Samsung, SMIC, Sony, Spreadtrum,
Texas Instruments, TSMC, UMC, UniSOC, Vivo, Xiaomi, XMC, ZTE
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
COMPANIES MONITORED IN THE PRODUCT
3
PROCESSOR MONITOR EVOLUTION
Processor Monitor
APU – Smartphone, Tablet, Smartwatch, APU-based PC, SmartTV, Smartspeaker, AR, VR, Automotive infotainment
CPU, GPU
FPGA
Module II
Module III
Publication Date
Released
2021 Q2
Module I Released
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
4
Market overview
o 2020-2026 Market dynamics
o Revenue
o Shipments
o Pricing
o Quarterly revenue – near & long term
o CAPEX
Market shares
o APU quarterly market shares
• Smartphone, Tablet, Smartwatch, Notebook, Smartspeaker, SmartTV, AR, VR, Auto Infotainment
o CPU quarterly market shares
• Client Notebook, Client Desktop, Server
o GPU quarterly market shares
• Client Notebook & Desktop, Server
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pricing
o Pricing, near & long term
o Pricing by segment
o Pricing per unit area
o Pricing per transistor
Technology
o APU designer die size trend
o APUs with embedded AI accelerators
o APUs by memory interface
o Average die size by segment
Production
o Quarterly wafer output
o Annual wafer output
o Wafers by logic node
o Units by logic node
o Foundry revenue
o Foundry revenue per wafer
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
5
John Lorenz
John Lorenz is a Technology and Market Senior Analyst within the Computing & Software division at Yole Développement (Yole). After holding various
positions within Micron Technology including engineering, strategic and finance roles, John is daily engaged in the development of market and
technology monitors for the logic segment of advanced semiconductors at Yole. John has a Bachelor of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering from
the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (USA), with a focus on MEMS devices.
Contact: john.lorenz@yole.fr
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Biographies & contacts
Tom Hackenberg
Tom Hackenberg is a Principal Analyst for Computing and Software in the Semiconductor, Memory and Computing Division at Yole Développement(Yole). Tom is engaged in developing processor market monitors and research into related technology trends. He is currently focused on low and ultralow power. Tom is an industry leading expert with more than a decade’s experience reporting on markets for semiconductor processors. Tom is also well-versed in related technology trends including IoT, heterogeneous processing, chiplets, AI and edge computing.
Tom holds a BSECE from the University of Texas at Austin.
Contact : tom.hackenberg@yole.fr
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
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NEAR-TERM DYNAMICS
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
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LONG-TERM DYNAMICS
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
© 2020 | www.yole.fr | 8
APU MARKET DYNAMICS
$10b $0b $35b $37b $44b $48b $50b $55b $59b $64b-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
reve
nue (
bill
ions
USD
)
Apple Samsung Qualcomm HiSilicon MediaTek UniSoC Other Forecast Y/Y Unit growth Y/Y ASP growth
• Near term: seasonally weak Q1-20 and COVID-19 impacts are overlapped to place H1-20 revenue just 3% above H1-19. Production volume
outpaced demand, keeping system builds afloat. Assuming a return to pre-COVID trajectories in mid-2021.
• Long term: Following the bounce back of demand in 2021, expecting modest unit and ASP growth to combine for growing APU revenues,
nearing $50B by 2023
“APU Market Revenue” is APU designers’ revenue for end-systems tracked in this monitor: Smartphone,
Tablet, APU-based Notebook, Smartwatch, Smartspeaker, SmartTV, AR, VR, and Automotive Infotainment
9
APU MARKET PRICING
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
ASP
($ p
er
unit)
ASP ASP Y/Y
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
10
APU QUARTERLY REVENUE: LONG TERM
“Revenue” is APU designers’ revenue
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20re
venue (
$b)
Apple Samsung Qualcomm HiSilicon MediaTek UniSoC Other Forecast
11
Client product revenues will continue to decline with the PC market as a whole
o Enthusiasts will still seek high performing components, which may richen up the ASPs, but will havecompetition from ARM-based solutions on the low end
QUARTERLY REVENUE: LONG TERM CLIENT (CPU+GPU)
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16re
venue (
$b)
Intel AMD Nvidia Forecast
Client revenue combines x86-based CPU and GPU revenues for desktop and laptop systems
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
12
Growth expected in datacenter as the cost to product premium DC processors will continue to climb,and as more DC integrate GPU solutions for cloud gaming and AI training & inference
QUARTERLY REVENUE: LONG TERM SERVER (CPU+GPU)
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18re
venue (
$b)
Intel AMD Nvidia Forecast
Server revenue combines x86-based CPU and GPU revenues for all server applications, including HPC, cloud services, and traditional enterprise
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
13
6%
21%
33%
6%
2%
5%
-8%-6%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
capital
expendit
ure
($b)
TSMC Intel Samsung SMIC GF Total Y/Y growth
FOUNDRY AND LOGIC CAPEX
Only includes the capex for APUs tracked within this monitor: smartphone, tablet, and
smartwatch. As more devices are added to the monitor, the tracked capex will adjust to reflect.Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
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PRICE PER UNIT
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
ASP
($ p
er
unit)
ASP ASP % change
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
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APU PRICE BY SEGMENT
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
ASP
($ p
er
unit)
All Smartphone Luxury High End Mid Tier Entry level Tablet
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
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APU PRICE BY SEGMENT
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
ASP
($ p
er
unit)
All APU Smartwatch Notebook AR VR SmartSpeaker Auto Infotainment Tablet All Smartphone
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
17
APU PRICE BY SEGMENT
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
ASP
($ p
er
unit)
All Smartphone Luxury High End Mid Tier Entry level Tablet
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
18
CPU PRICE BY SEGMENT
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
ASP
($ p
er
unit)
All CPU Desktop Notebook Server
19
GPU PRICE BY SEGMENT
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
ASP
($ p
er
unit)
All GPU Client Server
20
PRICE PER BILLION TRANSISTORS
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
ASP
($ p
er
Bn T
r)
Price per BnTr Y/Y %
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
21
APUS CONTAINING EMBEDDED AI ACCELERATORS
Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
perc
ent
of units
Luxury High End Mid Tier Entry level Tablets Total
Embedded Accelerators: important emerging feature that places upward pressure on future die sizes
trends
See also Yole’s report: Artificial Intelligence Computing for Consumer 2019 Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
22
APUS BY MEMORY INTERFACE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
perc
ent
of units
LPDDR2 LPDDR3 LPDDR4 LPDDR4X LPDDR5 DDR3
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
23
NON-SMARTPHONE APU: AVERAGE DIE SIZE
All Smartphone
Smartwatch
Notebook
SmartSpeaker
SmartTV
Auto Infotainment
AR
VR
Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
die
siz
e (
mm
2)
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
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CPU: AVERAGE DIE SIZE
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
die
siz
e (
mm
2)
Notebook Desktop Server All CPU
25
GPU: AVERAGE DIE SIZE
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
die
siz
e (
mm
2)
Client Server All GPU
26
Wafer production will increase as APU designers prioritize performance over cost reductions
INDUSTRY WAFER PRODUCTION
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 2023 2024 2025 2026
waf
er
pro
duct
ion (
k w
pm
-300m
m e
quiv
)
APU CPU GPU
Industry 2020-2026 CAGR: 3.3%
© 2020 | www.yole.fr | APU Market Monitor | Q4 2020 27
APU WAFERS BY NODE
Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 2023 2024 2025 2026
waf
er
pro
duct
ion (
k w
pm
, 300m
m e
quiv
)
3-4nm 5-6nm 7-8nm 10nm 12-16nm 20nm 28nm 45nm Avg Node (wafer basis)
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
© 2020 | www.yole.fr | APU Market Monitor | Q4 2020 28
CPU+GPU WAFERS BY NODE
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 2023 2024 2025 2026
waf
er
pro
duct
ion (
k w
pm
, 300m
m e
quiv
)
3 nm 5 nm 7 nm 10 nm 12 nm 14 nm 20 nm 22 nm Avg Node (wafer basis)
29
FOUNDRY REVENUE PER WAFER
Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 2023 2024 2025 2026
reve
nue p
er
waf
er
($)
Foundry revenue is front-end wafer processing services only. Samsung includes LSI and foundry.
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
30
PROCESSOR MARKET FORECAST
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
31
Contact our
Sales Team
for more
information
DRAM & NAND QuartelyMarket Monitor
Cameras and Computing for Surveillance and Security 2020
(x)PU: High-End CPU and GPU for Datacenter Applications 2020
Advanced Packaging Quarterly Market Monitor
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YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS
Yole Développement
32
Contact our
Sales Team
for more
information
Teardown Tracks
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YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS
System Plus Consulting
33
Yole Group of Companies, including Yole Développement,
System Plus Consulting and PISEO, are pleased to provide
you a glimpse of our accumulated knowledge.
We invite you to share our data with your own network,
within your presentations, press releases, dedicated
articles and more, but you first need approval from Yole
Public Relations department.
If you are interested, feel free to contact us right now!
We will also be more than happy to give you updated data
and appropriate formats.
Your contact: Sandrine Leroy, Dir. Public Relations
Email: leroy@yole.fr
HOW TO USE OUR DATA?
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34About Yole Développement | www.yole.fr | ©2020
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sandrine.leroy@yole.fr - +33 4 72 83 01 89
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