Post on 03-Jul-2020
PRESENTATION REGIONAL ANALYSIS:EUROPEAN CABLE MARKETS
Philip Radbourne,
Director, Wire & Cable
Integer Research Ltd, London Office
27th Annual Congress of the International Cablemakers FederationBarcelona, 10-14 October 2017
• Introduction & World Economy• Global Wire & Cable industry• Overview of European cable markets• CPR – how is the market coping?
European Wire & Cable Markets
Global manufacturing PMI gains momentum in H2 2017
Source: Integer, IMF
48
50
52
54
Jan13
Mrz13
Mai13
Jul13
Sep13
Nov13
Jan14
Mrz14
Mai14
Jul14
Sep14
Nov14
Jan15
Mrz15
Mai15
Jul15
Sep15
Nov15
Jan16
Mrz16
Mai16
Jul16
Sep16
Nov16
Jan17
Mrz17
Mai17
Jul17
Sep17
Source: Eurostat, Integer, Reuters/Eikon
Solid growth predictions through 2018
Source: OECD Interim Report September 2017, Reuters/Eikon
3,7
1,9
0,9 1,2 1,21,6 1,6
2,1 2,1 2,3 2,4
3,8
6,67,2
0
2
4
6
8Real GDP % change year-on-year
Can Brexit fly?
Source: Integer, Industry Sources
• Introduction & World Economy• Global Wire & Cable industry• Overview of European cable markets• CPR – how is the market coping?
European Wire & Cable Markets
Global wire and cable demand, € billion, 2007-2017
Source: Integer, Industry Sources
Euro billion, cable demand
0
50
100
150
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Africa & the Middle East
Americas
Asia-Pacific & South Asia
Europe & CIS
Total industry in 2016 = US$180 billion or €162 billion
World cable demand fell in 2016
-10
-5
0
5
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Yr-on-Yr % change in volumes
First dip in global volumes since 2009
Source: Integer, Industry Sources
Economies, GDP versus Cable demand in 2016
Source: Integer Research, Reuters/Eikon
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
USA EU-28 China Japan
GDP (Euro) trillion
Cable demand (Euro) billion
Key cable making hubs world wide in 2017
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
China India USA Japan Turkey Taiwan SouthKorea
Russia Mexico Brazil Italy Vietnam Thailand Germany Indonesia
Number of insulated wire & cable manufacturing plant
Source: Integer, Industry Sources
Top 25 cable makers in 2016
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000Insulated cable revenues, Euro million, 2016
Source: Integer, Industry Sources
• Introduction & World Economy• Global Wire & Cable industry• Overview of European cable markets• CPR – how is the market coping?
European Wire & Cable Markets
Eurozone manufacturing PMI hits 6-7 year high in September 2017
Source: Integer, IMF
40
45
50
55
60Ja
n 11
Mrz
11
Mai
11
Jul 1
1
Sep
11
Nov
11
Jan
12
Mrz
12
Mai
12
Jul 1
2
Sep
12
Nov
12
Jan
13
Mrz
13
Mai
13
Jul 1
3
Sep
13
Nov
13
Jan
14
Mrz
14
Mai
14
Jul 1
4
Sep
14
Nov
14
Jan
15
Mrz
15
Mai
15
Jul 1
5
Sep
15
Nov
15
Jan
16
Mrz
16
Mai
16
Jul 1
6
Sep
16
Nov
16
Jan
17
Mrz
17
Mai
17
Jul 1
7
Sep
17
Source: Eurostat, Integer, Reuters/Eikon
EU-28 Cable production on stronger path in Q3 2017
Source: Integer, IMF
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jan
05Ap
r 05
Jul 0
5O
kt 0
5Ja
n 06
Apr 0
6Ju
l 06
Okt
06
Jan
07Ap
r 07
Jul 0
7O
kt 0
7Ja
n 08
Apr 0
8Ju
l 08
Okt
08
Jan
09Ap
r 09
Jul 0
9O
kt 0
9Ja
n 10
Apr 1
0Ju
l 10
Okt
10
Jan
11Ap
r 11
Jul 1
1O
kt 1
1Ja
n 12
Apr 1
2Ju
l 12
Okt
12
Jan
13Ap
r 13
Jul 1
3O
kt 1
3Ja
n 14
Apr 1
4Ju
l 14
Okt
14
Jan
15Ap
r 15
Jul 1
5O
kt 1
5Ja
n 16
Apr 1
6Ju
l 16
Okt
16
Jan
17Ap
r 17
Jul 1
7
EU-28, Wire & Cable Industrial Production, volumes, Yr-on-Yr % change
Source: Eurostat, Integer, Reuters/Eikon
Economies, GDP versus Cable demand
Source: Integer Research, Reuter/Eikon
0
1
2
3
4
Germany UK France Italy Spain Poland
GDP (Euro) trillion
Cable demand (Euro) billion
European cable producers – landscape in 2017
Source: Integer Research, Industry Sources, Reuters/Eikon, Wilms Group
Key cable makers in the EU-28 in 2017
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500 Pro-forma insulated cable revenues, Euro million, 2017
Source: Integer, Industry Sources
Top 10 cable makers run 130 factories in EU-28, represent >50% of production
Source: Integer Research, Industry Sources, Reuter/Eikon
• Introduction & World Economy• Global Wire & Cable industry• Overview of European cable markets• CPR – how is the market coping?
European Wire & Cable Markets
• EU “Regulation” – came into force July 2017• All permanently (fixed) installed building and construction products• Includes cables – “Reaction to Fire”• Does not cover “Circuit integrity cable”• EN50575 – defines the tests and performance assessment for
construction products• New tests and categories had to be developed for cables.• Objective – safety of people and property, and increase product
performance and transparency, for ease of trade• New system of Notified Bodies – 3rd party type testing
Source: Integer Research, BASEC, Eland Cable
What is Construction Products Regulation (CPR)?
They also have to complete Declaration of Performance and keep record for 10 years
4 categories described to Integer:• Overseas operations of leading EU cablemakers• Exporters – Turkish cable makers exporting into the EU• Exporters/OEM – 3rd party - directly working with EU wholesalers and
distributors, installers, many working with professional Chinese operations
• The “soup”, will be excluded – of course there will be fraud as in any other market
• Continued scrutiny for System1+, for C and B cables
Source: Integer Research
Who are the importers into the EU?
Which cables are covered and where?
Source: Integer Research, Eland Cable, Excel Networking
How are the cables tested?
Source: Integer Research, Nexans, Eland Cable, MMC and Excel Networking
• B2 and C Euroclass are being subjected to much tougher flame spread test than D & E.
• B2 & C subject to EN50399 – 20.5kW burner, on bunched cabled
• D & E flame spread on single cable -
Heat release is a new test
Source: Nexans Cabling Solutions
Smoke, acidity and flaming droplets
Source: Nexans Cabling Solutions
How are the cables marked?
Source: Integer Research, images and ideas after Eland Cable and Excel Networking
New additional tests for smoke, droplets and acidity
This is now being marked on the cables
Some companies are already introducing colour coding – this need to be co-ordinated
Source: Brand-Rex UK
• Netherlands the most rigorous.• In the UK, data cables already at Cca• Scandinavia, consider Euroclass Dca for areas with medium or high fire risks. Likely to
shift to Cca• Euroclass Dca – might favour Halogen free cables with low fire retardancy performance,
e.g. U-UTP data cables
Source: Nexans Cabling Solutions
What is happening country by country?
Conclusions
Source: European Union
• It has confirmed all the work – and that some cables have . But really is a minority. Some coaxial cables, tray cables, LAN cable, with a PE core for example have struggled.
• Some LAN, Coaxial cables and other signal cables tested so badly, and gave off so much heat, that a number of test houses had to stop the tests to protect their equipment.
• The leading cable companies probably knew this. But smaller cable companies have had to find out.
• Turkish cable makers doing well with building wire.
• Constructions are being adjusted, so that cables make it safely into the “middle of class C”
• For some data cables, new constructions cause some head scratching because new constructions, which impact dielectric properties – LAN- cross talk etc
Source: Integer Research
European Wire & Cable markets
For further information and questions on the survey, please contact
Louisa WinnikEditor, Europe Survey
Senior Analyst, Wire & Cablelouisa.winnik@integer-research.com
Philip RadbourneDirector, Wire & Cable Research
philip.radbourne@integer-research.com
Tel: +44 20 7503 1265Fax: +44 20 7503 1266Integer Research Ltd
London Office, Invicta House108-114 Golden Lane
London, EC1Y 0TL, UK