History teaches us that war begins when governments believe the price of

aggression is cheap.

Ronald Reagan

Why did Georgia do it?

2008 South Ossetia War

Causes of War

Prof. LengJan. 2011

Background Research Design Analysis Research Gaps Conclusion

Outline:

Pre-Soviet Soviet Times 1990’s

Ossetia/ Georgia

Georgia/Russia

Background

2008 South Ossetia War

Research Design: Hypotheses

When war is declared, Truth is the first casualty.

Arthur Ponsonby

Analysis: Optimism and Opportunity

Internal Factors(Russia vs. Georgia)

External Factors (Possible Reactions)

Georgia Russia

Military Power

$1 bn6% of GDP

$40 bnIncreased 20%

Public Discord

Relatively high

Relatively high

Economic Strength

12% GDP growth $10.3 bn

8.1% GDP growth$2.331 trillion

NationalismHigh High Lack of Information?

Analysis: “weak state”

Vertical (Medium/Low)

• Warring factions• War on corruption• Medium and lower levels

• Lack of Judicial reforms• Still linked to executive

branch

Horizontal (Medium)

• Lowered Freedom Rating• Mikheil Saakashvili• Use of force against

protestors• Democratic elections

Analysis: clash of civilizations

Micro

• Previous Autonomy of Ossetia• Orthodox Christian

mainly • 67% Ethnic Ossetian

Macro

Research gaps

• Statistics to determine “War”• Hypo 4:

Transitioning Democracy?• Why was Russia

involved?• Mechanisms were

lacking in the theories

Everyone lost All hypotheses

provide some incite Manly due to sphere

of influence politics, when the timing was right

Conclusion

War may sometimes be a necessary evil. But no matter how necessary, it is always an evil, never a good. We will

not learn how to live together in peace by killing each other's children.

Jimmy Carter