Global Warming, End of OilA Perfect Storm

Richard HeinbergPost Carbon Institute

Preparing Preparing Together for a Together for a Changed WorldChanged World

Richard HeinbergRichard Heinberg

Post Carbon InstitutePost Carbon Institute

The economic crisis changes everything

before crisis I after crisis

“The value of global financial assets including stocks, bonds, and currencies fell by more than $50 Trillion in 2008, equivalent to a year of world GDP.”

--Asian Development Bank

Comparison of the percentage change in the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the housing corrections in the periods beginning in 2005 (red) and the 1980s–1990s (blue)

Cost of the Wall St. Bailout

$100

$10,000

$1 million

$100 million

$1 billion

$1 trillion

US Household Debt and Debt Service as Percentage of

Personal Disposable Income

People can’t buy stuff if they don’t have money,

and government can’t give them all the money they need

to pay down debt and get back to consuming

“We’re in the midst of a once-in-a-lifetime set of economic conditions. The perspective I would bring is not one of recession. Rather, the economy is resetting to a lower level of business and consumer spending based largely on the reduced leverage in the economy.”

Steven BallmerChairman, Microsoft Corp.

The shape of the recovery

V

The shape of the recovery

U

The shape of the recovery

W

The shape of the recovery

L

Some economic perspective

World GDP/capita 1-2003 AD

Meanwhile, we were developing economic

institutions and theories

Growth becomes institutionalized

• With continual growth in energy, population, and consumption, it was assumed that economic growth could continue forever

Growth becomes institutionalized

• With continual growth in energy, population, and consumption, it was assumed that economic growth could continue forever

• With compound interest, fractional reserve banking, and debt leverage, growth became necessary to the monetary health of nations

When growth ceases, growth-based economies enter

survival crisis mode

Why did we create a growth economy in the first place?

For most of history, humans relied on renewable energy sources

The fossil-fueled

industrial era—

winning the energy lottery

Once upon a time…

Marion King Hubbert

• Geophysicist at Shell lab in Houston, taught at MIT, UCLA

• Forecast peak year of US oil production

Hubbert’s Peak

• From his 1956 paper• For the larger estimate, he predicted a peak in 1970

Oil production – lower 48

World oil discoveries

Global oil production falls when loss of output from countries declining

exceeds gains from those expanding

The Goldilocks Dilemma

• Oil price needed for development of new oil production capacity: $60-70

• Minimum oil price likely to trigger economic recession: $80-$100

Past recessions & oil spikes

Peak Oil means the end of cheap air travel

Peak Oil means the end of affordable travel

Peak Oil means Peak Food

Evaluating Energy Options• Energy return on investment

• Size of resource

• Infrastructure requirement

• Convenience of use

• Environmental impact

• Renewability

• Scalability

• Location of resource

There is no credible scenario in which alternative energy sources can make up for fossil fuels once declines begin.

• Unemployment

• Homelessness

• Bank failures

• Hunger

• Crime

• Political instability

• International conflict

What to expect

What to do?

Proactive(planning for

linear adaptation)

Responsive (planning for

crisis management)

Top-Down (government policy)

Bottom-Up (grass-roots organizing)

Four response strategies

Reduce Fossil Fuels and Develop Renewables

(from Paul Mobbs – Energy Beyond Oil)

The sustainability revolution will be driven by crisis

Resilience

The ability to absorb shocks and continue to function

Resilience characteristics

• Redundancy in critical systems

• Dispersed system control points

• Dispersed inventories

• Balancing feedback loops

Building resilient communitiesBuilding Resilient Building Resilient CommunitiesCommunities

Co-op Power• “A regional network

of local communities creating a multi-class, multi-racial movement for a sustainable and just energy future”

Avego

• Uses cell phone and GPS to make hitchhiking (“shared transport”) attractive and functional

Mission Mountain Food Enterprise Center

• Available to small, local growers

• Equipment for food processing, packaging, labeling, etc.

Organized Squatting

• Squatting will happen anyway, but will work better if supported and organized by the community

Neighborhood Watch

• Helps local government provide essential services without usurping authority

Bicycle Kitchen

• Access to full tool shop for bike construction and repair

• Free parts, consignments, and for-purchase parts and assemblies

Community currencies

• Especially useful in times of economic crisis

• Over 2500 local currencies operating in countries around the world

Transition Towns

• A bottom-up

community organizing

model that puts

together all of these

strategies and more

• “Life can be better

without fossil fuels…”

Community Economic Laboratories

• One-stop shop, central location

• Car-share, ride-share

• Food co-op

• Credit union

• Job center

• Free clinic

• Etc.

Emphasize what is not at peak

• Community

• Satisfaction from honest work well done

• Intergenerational solidarity

• Cooperation

• Free time

• Happiness

• Artistry

• Beauty of the built environment

A personal strategy

• Reduce spending and consumption

• Grow your own food

• Get to know your neighbors

Imagine life after growth, a world without fossil fuels,

the best case scenario

Imagine life after growth, a world without fossil fuels,

the best case scenarioNow imagine a path

from here to there,

and start to build it

Remember: crisis = opportunity

This is the biggest opportunity of our lifetimes. Who will seize it?

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