Preparing Together for a Changed World
-
Upload
post-carbon-institute -
Category
Documents
-
view
251 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Preparing Together for a Changed World
Global Warming, End of OilA Perfect Storm
Richard HeinbergPost Carbon Institute
Preparing Preparing Together for a Together for a Changed WorldChanged World
Richard HeinbergRichard Heinberg
Post Carbon InstitutePost Carbon Institute
The economic crisis changes everything
before crisis I after crisis
“The value of global financial assets including stocks, bonds, and currencies fell by more than $50 Trillion in 2008, equivalent to a year of world GDP.”
--Asian Development Bank
Comparison of the percentage change in the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the housing corrections in the periods beginning in 2005 (red) and the 1980s–1990s (blue)
Cost of the Wall St. Bailout
$100
$10,000
$1 million
$100 million
$1 billion
$1 trillion
US Household Debt and Debt Service as Percentage of
Personal Disposable Income
People can’t buy stuff if they don’t have money,
and government can’t give them all the money they need
to pay down debt and get back to consuming
“We’re in the midst of a once-in-a-lifetime set of economic conditions. The perspective I would bring is not one of recession. Rather, the economy is resetting to a lower level of business and consumer spending based largely on the reduced leverage in the economy.”
Steven BallmerChairman, Microsoft Corp.
The shape of the recovery
V
The shape of the recovery
U
The shape of the recovery
W
The shape of the recovery
L
Some economic perspective
World GDP/capita 1-2003 AD
Meanwhile, we were developing economic
institutions and theories
Growth becomes institutionalized
• With continual growth in energy, population, and consumption, it was assumed that economic growth could continue forever
Growth becomes institutionalized
• With continual growth in energy, population, and consumption, it was assumed that economic growth could continue forever
• With compound interest, fractional reserve banking, and debt leverage, growth became necessary to the monetary health of nations
When growth ceases, growth-based economies enter
survival crisis mode
Why did we create a growth economy in the first place?
For most of history, humans relied on renewable energy sources
The fossil-fueled
industrial era—
winning the energy lottery
Once upon a time…
Marion King Hubbert
• Geophysicist at Shell lab in Houston, taught at MIT, UCLA
• Forecast peak year of US oil production
Hubbert’s Peak
• From his 1956 paper• For the larger estimate, he predicted a peak in 1970
Oil production – lower 48
World oil discoveries
Global oil production falls when loss of output from countries declining
exceeds gains from those expanding
The Goldilocks Dilemma
• Oil price needed for development of new oil production capacity: $60-70
• Minimum oil price likely to trigger economic recession: $80-$100
Past recessions & oil spikes
Peak Oil means the end of cheap air travel
Peak Oil means the end of affordable travel
Peak Oil means Peak Food
Evaluating Energy Options• Energy return on investment
• Size of resource
• Infrastructure requirement
• Convenience of use
• Environmental impact
• Renewability
• Scalability
• Location of resource
There is no credible scenario in which alternative energy sources can make up for fossil fuels once declines begin.
• Unemployment
• Homelessness
• Bank failures
• Hunger
• Crime
• Political instability
• International conflict
What to expect
What to do?
Proactive(planning for
linear adaptation)
Responsive (planning for
crisis management)
Top-Down (government policy)
Bottom-Up (grass-roots organizing)
Four response strategies
Reduce Fossil Fuels and Develop Renewables
(from Paul Mobbs – Energy Beyond Oil)
The sustainability revolution will be driven by crisis
Resilience
The ability to absorb shocks and continue to function
Resilience characteristics
• Redundancy in critical systems
• Dispersed system control points
• Dispersed inventories
• Balancing feedback loops
Building resilient communitiesBuilding Resilient Building Resilient CommunitiesCommunities
Co-op Power• “A regional network
of local communities creating a multi-class, multi-racial movement for a sustainable and just energy future”
Avego
• Uses cell phone and GPS to make hitchhiking (“shared transport”) attractive and functional
Mission Mountain Food Enterprise Center
• Available to small, local growers
• Equipment for food processing, packaging, labeling, etc.
Organized Squatting
• Squatting will happen anyway, but will work better if supported and organized by the community
Neighborhood Watch
• Helps local government provide essential services without usurping authority
Bicycle Kitchen
• Access to full tool shop for bike construction and repair
• Free parts, consignments, and for-purchase parts and assemblies
Community currencies
• Especially useful in times of economic crisis
• Over 2500 local currencies operating in countries around the world
Transition Towns
• A bottom-up
community organizing
model that puts
together all of these
strategies and more
• “Life can be better
without fossil fuels…”
Community Economic Laboratories
• One-stop shop, central location
• Car-share, ride-share
• Food co-op
• Credit union
• Job center
• Free clinic
• Etc.
Emphasize what is not at peak
• Community
• Satisfaction from honest work well done
• Intergenerational solidarity
• Cooperation
• Free time
• Happiness
• Artistry
• Beauty of the built environment
A personal strategy
• Reduce spending and consumption
• Grow your own food
• Get to know your neighbors
Imagine life after growth, a world without fossil fuels,
the best case scenario
Imagine life after growth, a world without fossil fuels,
the best case scenarioNow imagine a path
from here to there,
and start to build it
Remember: crisis = opportunity
This is the biggest opportunity of our lifetimes. Who will seize it?
www.postcarbon.org