Post on 16-Dec-2015
Predictive Modelling to aid the Active Management of Bathing
Waters
Andrew WitherEnvironment Agency (UK)
Science Group
Why do me need predictions?
•The Public want to know about water quality
•The new directive will require this knowledge for implementation
•Compliance can be enhanced
In each bathing siteIn each bathing site• Posting of laboratory result sheetsPosting of laboratory result sheets
Directly to the beach attendantsDirectly to the beach attendants
• Posting of informative panelsPosting of informative panels
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SMS serviceSMS service
Bathing Bathing sitessites ReservoirsReservoirs
Supplying Supplying and sewer and sewer systemssystems
Hydraulic Hydraulic ResourcesResources
EU ReportsEU Reports
New New PagePage
Algarve Algarve 20042004
Bathing Water Bathing Water ClassificationClassification
Annual Annual SynthesesSyntheses
Viv´a Praia Viv´a Praia CampaignCampaign
SYNTETHISED DATASYNTETHISED DATA
•Through an INTERNET site www.snirh.inag.ptThrough an INTERNET site www.snirh.inag.pt
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NEW PAGENEW PAGE
Requirements
Article 6:to predict ……the anticipated nature, frequency andduration of expected short-term pollution.
Article 7:to take ….. timely and adequate managementmeasures .include information to the public and, if necessary, atemporary prohibition on bathing.
West Kirby Guideline Good GoodMeols Guideline Poor PoorMoreton Imperative Good GoodNew Brighton Guideline Poor PoorFormby Guideline Good GoodAinsdale Imperative Sufficient PoorSouthport Imperative Sufficient PoorSt Annes Imperative Sufficient PoorSt Annes North Imperative Sufficient PoorBlackpool South Imperative Sufficient PoorBlackpool Central Imperative Sufficient PoorBlackpool North Imperative Sufficient PoorBispham Guideline Good GoodCleveleys Guideline Sufficient PoorFleetwood Imperative Poor PoorHeysham Half Moon Bay Imperative Poor PoorMorecambe South Imperative Poor PoorMorecambe North Imperative Poor PoorBardsea Imperative Poor PoorAldingham Imperative Poor PoorNewbiggin Imperative Poor PoorWalney Biggar Bank Imperative Sufficient SufficientWalney Sandy Gap Imperative Sufficient PoorWalney West Shore Guideline Sufficient PoorRoan Head Imperative Poor PoorAskam-in-Furness Imperative Poor PoorHaverigg Poor Poor PoorSilecroft Imperative Sufficient PoorSeascale Imperative Poor PoorWindermere, Lakeside YMCA Imperative Excellent ExcellentWindermere, Millerground Landing Imperative Good GoodWindermere, Fellfoot Imperative Excellent ExcellentSt Bees Imperative Sufficient PoorAllonby South Imperative Poor PoorAllonby Imperative Poor PoorSilloth Imperative Sufficient PoorSkinburness Imperative Sufficient Poor
Scope and Limitations for Discounting Samples
• Samples taken during short-term pollution may be disregarded
• the number of samples disregarded .. may represent no more than 15% of the total number of samples
Choice of Model
• There are 566 bathing water in Great Britain alone.
• At most sites predictive modelling will have to be undertaken with little increase in budget.
• Models will be implemented by non- specialists
Asking the right question
• The modellers’ task is to produce the best tool using only data that is readily available.
• Provide a stochastic model relating bathing water quality to basic environmental parameters
Model development
• Simple correlation model for public information (Scotland)
• Development of correlation model for assessing sample discounting (England)
• Multiple regression model for forecasting with confidence limits (ICREW)