Population Chapter 2 Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 1.

PopulationPopulation

Chapter 2Chapter 2

Chap 2 Population Egeo 201Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 11

Oct 2, 2013Oct 2, 2013

Note first extra credit lectureNote first extra credit lecture Note means of making a definitionNote means of making a definition Friday quiz on chap 1, Edward, and Friday quiz on chap 1, Edward, and

videosvideos Oct 4, 2013Oct 4, 2013 Last names on assignmentsLast names on assignments If we can’t read it we don’tIf we can’t read it we don’t Some had excellent answers regarding Some had excellent answers regarding

SyriaSyriaChap 2 Population Egeo 201Chap 2 Population Egeo 201 22

Class Based Vernacular West Boundary – Fall 2013

Class Based Vernacular West Boundary – Spring 2012

Fall 2012 Class

World Population Centers -- Today

77Demographics and MigrationDemographics and Migration

World Population World Population http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html

Population by ContinentPopulation by Continent

Rank ContinentPopulation

2013±% p.a.

2010-2013

— World 7,162,119,000 1.17%

1 Asia 4,298,723,000 1.06%

2 Africa 1,110,635,000 2.51%

3 Americas 972,005,000 1.03%

4 Europe 742,452,000 0.10%

5 Oceania 38,304,000 1.47%

Density MeasuresDensity Measures

Thing on top – Area on bottomThing on top – Area on bottom Arithmetic D = Pop/AreaArithmetic D = Pop/Area

– Limited valueLimited value Physiological D = Pop/Arable AreaPhysiological D = Pop/Arable Area

– Pre-Industrial indicator of Carrying Pre-Industrial indicator of Carrying CapacityCapacity

Agricultural D = Farmers/Arable AreaAgricultural D = Farmers/Arable Area– Indicator of DevelopmentIndicator of Development

1111Demographics and MigrationDemographics and Migration

Here size is related to pop not area.

Population Cartogram

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

TodayToday

Investigate the Demographic Investigate the Demographic Transition ModelTransition Model

Investigate Types of Diagrams used Investigate Types of Diagrams used to display and map Demographicsto display and map Demographics

1. DEFINING 1. DEFINING GENERAL GENERAL TERMS TERMS

AND AND CONCEPTSCONCEPTS

Basic Terms

Crude Birth Rate

Crude Death Rate

Rate of Natural Increase

Infant Mortality Rate

Fertility Rate

Crude Birth RateCrude Birth Rate

CBRCBR Number of live births per year = Number of live births per year =

3,1803,180 Divided by population = 200,000Divided by population = 200,000 Times 1,000Times 1,000

CBR = [(3,180)/200,000] x 1,000CBR = [(3,180)/200,000] x 1,000

CBR = CBR = 15.9 births per 1,000 people15.9 births per 1,000 people

Crude Birth RateCrude Birth Rate

Crude Death RateCrude Death Rate

CDRCDR Number of deaths per year = 1,860Number of deaths per year = 1,860 Divided by population = 200,000Divided by population = 200,000 Times 1,000Times 1,000

CDR = [(1,860)/200,000] x 1,000CDR = [(1,860)/200,000] x 1,000

CDR = CDR = 9.3 deaths per 1,000 people9.3 deaths per 1,000 people

Crude Death RateCrude Death Rate

Rate of Natural IncreaseRate of Natural Increase

RNIRNI CBR = 15.9CBR = 15.9 Minus CDR = 9.3Minus CDR = 9.3 Divided by 10Divided by 10

RNI = (CBR – CDR)/10 RNI = (CBR – CDR)/10 = [(15.9 -9.3) /10 = [(15.9 -9.3) /10 = = 0.66% 0.66% growth per yeargrowth per year

Rate of Natural IncreaseRate of Natural Increase

Infant Mortality RateInfant Mortality Rate

IMIM number of newborns dying under 0ne number of newborns dying under 0ne

year of age = 25year of age = 25 divided by the number of live births divided by the number of live births

during same year = 3,180during same year = 3,180 Times 1,000 Times 1,000

IM = (25/3,180) x 1,000IM = (25/3,180) x 1,000

IM = IM = 7.9 deaths per 1,000 births7.9 deaths per 1,000 births

Doubling TimeDoubling Time

http://www.metamorphosisalpha.com/ias/population.php

Rate of Nat. Increase

Doubling Time

1% 70yrs

2% 35yrs

3% 24yrs

USA 0.545 % 128yrs

Infant Mortality RateInfant Mortality Rate

2424Chap 2 Population Egeo 201Chap 2 Population Egeo 201

Fertility RateFertility Rate

Average Number of child birthsAverage Number of child births Per womanPer woman

Since a couple is 2 people, need a Since a couple is 2 people, need a little more than 2 births to replace little more than 2 births to replace the parentsthe parents

2.12.1 is considered a stable growth is considered a stable growth fertility rate in the USA or a fertility rate in the USA or a Developed CountryDeveloped Country

Fertility RateFertility Rate

Types of DiagramsTypes of Diagrams

Demographic Transition ModelDemographic Transition Model Population PyramidPopulation Pyramid Trend DiagramsTrend Diagrams

– Temporal (over time)Temporal (over time)– Spatial (over spaceSpatial (over space

Survivorship DiagramSurvivorship Diagram

2.2.DEMOGRAPHIC DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION TRANSITION MODEL MODEL

Naturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Another way of displaying rate of natural increase

Curve for changing Rate of Natural Increase during the Demographic Transition

What is the Demographic What is the Demographic Transition Model?Transition Model?

The "Demographic Transition" is a The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population model that describes population change over time. change over time. – Our main concern has been growthOur main concern has been growth– Now in Industrial Countries it is in Now in Industrial Countries it is in

declinedecline

It is based on an interpretation It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, of demographer Warren Thompson, of the observed changes, or the observed changes, or transitionstransitions, , in birth and death rates in in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so. two hundred years or so.

The "Demographic Transition" is a The "Demographic Transition" is a model/ a scientific hypothesismodel/ a scientific hypothesis– Until the 1990s it seemed to work well Until the 1990s it seemed to work well

with Developed Countrieswith Developed Countries– It worked It worked pretty wellpretty well with Less with Less

Developed CountriesDeveloped Countries

The "Demographic Transition" is The "Demographic Transition" is based on the Scientific Method, based on the Scientific Method, – so we are continually “experimenting” so we are continually “experimenting”

with it and improving itwith it and improving it

Here we will critique it with Italy & Here we will critique it with Italy & JapanJapan

Impacts and ConsequencesImpacts and ConsequencesThe next several sets of tables summarizes the The next several sets of tables summarizes the

measures of impacts of the Transitionmeasures of impacts of the Transition

Four Stages ImpactsFour Stages Impacts 1. Very Low Growth1. Very Low Growth 2. High Growth2. High Growth 3. High but Slowing 3. High but Slowing

GrowthGrowth 4. Low Growth4. Low Growth

Some now see a fifth stageSome now see a fifth stage 5. ??? Decline sets in ???? 5. ??? Decline sets in ????

Which is the case in Which is the case in Europe and JapanEurope and Japan

Factors That Change over the Factors That Change over the StagesStages

Family SizeFamily Size Infant Mortality & Fertility Infant Mortality & Fertility

Rates Rates Family EconomicsFamily Economics Status of KidsStatus of Kids Gender RolesGender Roles Health ConditionsHealth Conditions Child DeathsChild Deaths Population Size Population Size

Demographic Transition ModelDemographic Transition Model

Stage 1 : Pre Stage 1 : Pre industrializatindustrialization: Stable ion: Stable population population growthgrowth

Stage 2: Stage 2: Rapid Rapid population population growthgrowth

Stage 3: Stage 3: Continued and Continued and decreasing decreasing population population growthgrowth

Stage 4: Stage 4: Stable low Stable low population population growthgrowth

CBRCBRHigh Birth High Birth ratesrates

High Birth High Birth ratesrates

Falling Birth ratesFalling Birth rates Low Birth ratesLow Birth rates

Family Size Family Size -- planned-- planned

Family Family Planning -- The Planning -- The general plan is general plan is to have many to have many

kidskids

Family Family Planning -- The Planning -- The general plan is general plan is to have many to have many

kidskids

Family Planning -- Family Planning -- The plan is to have The plan is to have fewer kidsfewer kids

Trends Trends stabilize with stabilize with 2 kid families 2 kid families or lessor less

Infant Infant Mortality Mortality Rate/ Rate/ Fertility Fertility RateRate

Many children Many children because few because few survive-- high survive-- high fertility ratefertility rate

Still many kids Still many kids because because

expectexpect few to few to survive -- high survive -- high

fertilityfertility

Lower infant Lower infant mortality rates -- mortality rates -- less pressure to less pressure to have children, have children, fertility declinesfertility declines

Small family Small family size low size low fertility ratefertility rate

Family Family EconomicsEconomics

Many children Many children are needed to are needed to work the landwork the land

Children are Children are still useful for still useful for work work

Increased Increased mechanization and mechanization and industrialization industrialization means less need for means less need for labor/kidslabor/kids

Women are Women are working in working in great great numbersnumbers

Demographic Transition ModelDemographic Transition Model

Stage 1 : Pre Stage 1 : Pre industrializatiindustrialization: Stable on: Stable population population growthgrowth

Stage 2: Rapid Stage 2: Rapid population population growthgrowth

Stage 3: Stage 3: Continued and Continued and decreasing decreasing population population growthgrowth

Stage 4: Stable Stage 4: Stable low population low population growthgrowth

CBRCBR

High Birth ratesHigh Birth rates High Birth ratesHigh Birth rates Falling Birth ratesFalling Birth rates Low Birth ratesLow Birth rates

Status of Status of KidsKids

Children are a Children are a sign of virility & sign of virility & status and old status and old age insuranceage insurance

Increased desire Increased desire for material for material possessions and possessions and less desire for less desire for large familieslarge families

Kids are an Kids are an expense & expense & “bling”“bling”

Gender Gender rolesroles

Strong sex Strong sex rolesroles

Strong sex rolesStrong sex roles Emancipation of Emancipation of womenwomen

Emancipation of Emancipation of womenwomen

Stage 1 : Stage 1 : Pre Pre industrializindustrialization: ation: Stable Stable population population growthgrowth

Stage 3: Stage 3: Continued Continued and and decreasing decreasing population population growthgrowth

CDRCDR High Death High Death RatesRates

Falling Death Falling Death RatesRates

Death rates Death rates LowLow

Health Health ConditiConditionsons

Poor Diet & Poor Diet & Sanitation, Sanitation, Famine and Famine and DiseaseDisease

Improved Improved diet, diet, sanitation & sanitation & medical caremedical care

Slight Slight improvementimprovement

No changeNo change

Child Child DeathsDeaths

High child High child mortality mortality before age 5before age 5

A decrease A decrease in child in child mortalitymortality

Child Child mortality mortality very lowvery low

StableStable

After Copper, Models of Demography, After Copper, Models of Demography, http://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htmhttp://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htm

Stage 1 : Stage 1 : Pre Pre industrializindustrialization: ation: Stable Stable population population growthgrowth

Stage 3: Stage 3: Continued Continued and and decreasindecreasing g population population growthgrowth

Rate Rate Natural Natural IncreaseIncrease

Very Low Very Low GrowthGrowth

High GrowthHigh Growth Slowing Slowing GrowthGrowth Low GrowthLow Growth

Population Population SizeSize

Small Small PopulationPopulation

BiggerBigger BiggerBiggerBiggestBiggest

After Copper, Models of Demography, After Copper, Models of Demography, http://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htmhttp://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htm

In Class ExerciseIn Class Exercise

Divide into groups of 2 or 3Divide into groups of 2 or 3 For the next two diagrams determine For the next two diagrams determine

the years for the start of Stage 2, 3 the years for the start of Stage 2, 3 and 4 as appropriateand 4 as appropriate

Sources http://www.marathon.uwc.edu/geography/demotrans/demtran.htm

Developed Country

Example: Sweden

Note that reality is a bit messier than theory.

Developing Country

Example: Mexico

This looks more like what we are expecting

Combination emphasizing changes over time, Sweden takes longer and Sweden starts from lower CBR and CDR

3. TYPES 3. TYPES OF OF DIAGRAMSDIAGRAMS

More Types of DiagramsMore Types of Diagrams

These diagrams help us to These diagrams help us to understand the mechanism causing understand the mechanism causing the Demographic Transition Model to the Demographic Transition Model to operate and its impactoperate and its impact– Survivorship DiagramSurvivorship Diagram– Stabilization Ratio DiagramStabilization Ratio Diagram– Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids– Temporal TrendsTemporal Trends– Spatial TrendsSpatial Trends

Survivorship Diagram: Emphasis on longer life expectancy as CDR drops

Less then 10% reached 25yrs old

Now 90% live past 55yrs old

Public Health: One of the many past causes of high child mortality rates

HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION GROWTHHIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

1 1 billion billion in 1804in 1804

2 2 billion billion in in 1927 1927 (123 (123 years years later)later)

3 billion 3 billion in 1960 in 1960 (33 years (33 years later)later)

7.1 billion 7.1 billion in 2013 (23 in 2013 (23 years years later) later)

Recent Exponential Growth of World’s Population as countries enter Stage 2 and Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition

Total Population of the World by Decade, 1950–2050

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762181.htmlhttp://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762181.html

(historical and projected)

YearTotal world population

(mid-year figures)Ten-year growth

rate (%)

1950 2,556,000,053 18.9%

1960 3,039,451,023 22.0

1970 3,706,618,163 20.2

1980 4,453,831,714 18.5

1990 5,278,639,789 15.2

2000 6,082,966,429 12.6

6,848,932,929 10.7

7,584,821,144 8.7

8,246,619,341 7.3

8,850,045,889 5.6

9,346,399,468 —

The good news – Growth rate is in decline

The bad news – we will try to add another 2.5 bill.

Mainly another Billion people in Africa

Stabilization of World’s population is still over a generation away

Population Pyramids

• Demonstrate where the population is by age cohort

• Also can see Demographic Stage

Guatemala Stage 2

Mexico is going into Stage 3

USA – what Stage would you say this is???

Demographic IndicatorsBirth Rate: 12 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.8 births Natural increase: 0.1% per year 1990-2000 Age structure: 18% under 15 yrs.age

Demographic Indicators Birth Rate: 9 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.2 births Natural increase: -0.1% per year 1990-2000 Age structure: 14% under 15 yrs.age

Stage 4: Sweden

Italy with declining population. Will there be a Stage 5???

Japan, an upside down pyramid in the making? Population collapse???

Example of how families adjust to lower infant mortality rates with lower fertility rates.

Result is a decline in CBR

This is a temporal trend diagram.

Spatial Trend Diagram: Countries with higher IM have higher Fertility Rates.

Comparative Temporal and Spatial Data Diagram

What is occuring here? Speculate why.

Comparison of Development and Wealth to Population Growth Rates across Countries

Births are solid line, deaths dashedNote little difference in death rate, large difference in birth rate

Result poorer countries grow faster, rich ones little to none, today even declines

Additional Details on MexicoAdditional Details on Mexico

If you want more information on If you want more information on Mexico click belowMexico click below

http://www.un.org/esa/population/http://www.un.org/esa/population/meetings/EGMPopAge/meetings/EGMPopAge/Partida_Figures.pdf Partida_Figures.pdf

Where is the World’s Population Growing? Declining?

ONE LAST ONE LAST CONCEPTCONCEPT

Dependency RatioDependency Ratio

Ratio of non-working population to Ratio of non-working population to working age populationworking age population

Non-Workers are the young and aged Non-Workers are the young and aged retireesretirees– young are usually 15 yrs old and belowyoung are usually 15 yrs old and below– retirees are usually 64 yrs old and retirees are usually 64 yrs old and

aboveabove

Dependency RatioDependency Ratio

Cape Verde: Mostly Kids

Denmark: Split between kids & elderly

Chile: Kids still dominate

Pakistan’s High Dependency Ratio now and in the future based on lots of kids but few elderly.

However note how the young population is expected to stabilize and elderly grow.

Dependency Ratio WoesDependency Ratio Woes

A rising dependency ratio is A rising dependency ratio is also also a a concern in many countries that are concern in many countries that are facing facing aging populationsaging populations, since it , since it becomes difficult for pension and becomes difficult for pension and social security systems to provide to social security systems to provide to retirees.retirees.

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