L. Pinter 1

Policy Uses of National Environment Outlook Information: Perspectives from the Caribbean

Laszlo Pinter, PhDNRC FLIS Annual Meeting

Ljubljana, SloveniaFebruary 16-17, 2012

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L. Pinter 5

#1 Clarify Focal MEAs, Status and

Linkages with Development

Priorities

#2 Identify Synergies Among

Focal MEAs

#3 Articulate Desired Future

Outcomes

#4 Identify Portfolio of MEA

Policies for Achieving

Future Outcomes

MEA Outcome Planning

#6 Prepare MEA Policy Planning

Brief

IMPLEMENTATION AND REPORTING

#5 Assess Risks and

Opportunities and Improve and Adapt as

Necessary

STEP 1

Demonstrating the Relevance of MEAs to National and Sector Priorities Using Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) Tools

National or Sectoral

Development Priority

HumanWellbeing Aspects

(from MA list)

RelevantEcosystem

Services(from MA List)

State ofEnvironment

Aspect of MEA

MEADevelopment

Priority

Tool #1Priorities Mapping

Using ecosystem services / human wellbeing linkages from the IEA toolkit to map the connections between MEA commitments and national and sectoral priorities

National or Sectoral Development

Priority

Human Wellbeing Aspects

(from MA list)

Flourishing Tourism Sector

Livelihoods

Opportunity to express and observe cultural and spiritual values associated with ecosystems

Relevant Ecosystem Services

(from MA List)

State of Environment Aspect

of the LBS

Food (fish) Quality of Coastal Environment (control, prevent and reduce pollution of marine coastal environment)

Genetic resources

Ornamental resources

Storm protection

Recreation and tourism

Education

STEP 2

Identifying Synergies Among MEAs Using IEA Tools

Tool #2MEA Synergy Mapping

Using ecosystem services / human wellbeing linkages from the IEA toolkit to map the connections between MEA commitments, national and sectoral priorities

MEA Synergies Worksheet

States, Pressures and Drivers MEA Commitments Key Synergies

MEA #1 MEA #2

States of the EnvironmentList the state(s) of the environment that the MEA is addressing, along with specific commitments cited

PressuresList the direct pressures on the state(s) of the environment identified above. For each pressure list specific commitments in the MEA

DriversList the high-level drivers of change influencing the direct pressures identified above, along with any specific commitments cited

ImpactsArticulate the primary impacts associated with changes in the environmental state(s). Use the ecosystem services and human wellbeing categories to assist with this analysis.

MEA Synergies Worksheet - EXAMPLE

States, Pressures and Drivers

MEA Goals and Targets Corresponding to Environmental States, Pressures and Drivers Key Synergies

MEA #1United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change

MEA #2United NationsConvention on

Combating Desertification

States of the EnvironmentList the state(s) of the environment that the MEA is addressing, along with specific targets cited

Atmosphere• Climate Change

Soil• Desertification

• Climate change intensifies drought intensifying desertification

PressuresList the direct pressures on the state(s) of the environment identified above. For each pressure list specific targets cited in the MEA and identify line departments having an influence.

• Rising CO2 from energy use• CO2 emissions from land-use changes

• Land-use intensification• Water shortages

• Application of fertilizers• Land use changes increase atmospheric CO2

STEP 3

Envisioning Desired Future MEA Outcomes

Not thinking about the future is detrimental to strategy………….

Backcasting Where do we want to go? How do we get there? Where do we want not to go? How do we avoid getting there?

Creating the desired future outcomes

Desired future outcomes expressed as indicators

and targets (qualitative and quantitative) relevant for

the area/country

Present Future

How can we achieve the desired future goals and outcomes?

- Some of our current policies and actions could get us there

- New policies could be needed to get us to the desired future

- Need to account for long-term trends and surprises

Desired future goals based on the MEAS

Envisioning desired future MEA outcomes

Desired future outcomes • Decrease monoculture

forestry by 30%• Maintain high and stable

timber supply (mil m3 of wood)

• Achieve at least 80% of current economic returns from forest sector

Present Future

How can we achieve the desired future outcomes?

- Current economic diversification policy could be used to explore new types of products (from different species)

- Revising species and planting guidelines to include native tree species

- Setting quotas for species composition

- Estimate how the revenues are sensitive to changes in wood prices and new construction demands (what if questions)

MEA Challenge Scenario Worksheet

States, Pressures and Drivers

MEA Commitments Key Synergies Indicators and Targets

MEA #1 MEA #2

States of the EnvironmentList the state(s) of the environment that the MEA is addressing, along with specific commitments cited

PressuresList the direct pressures on the state(s) of the environment identified above. For each pressure list specific commitments in the MEA

DriversList the high-level drivers of change influencing the direct pressures identified above, along with any specific commitments cited

STEP 4

IDENTIFYING A PORTFOLIO OF MEA POLICIES FOR ACHIEVING DESIRED FUTURE OUTCOMES

Sustainablefuture = ?

current reality

time

Backcasting... (i.e. ”what do we want?”)

Strategies and actions = ?

(What are some basics?)

University of Delft, 2008

Creating the desired future outcomes

Desired future outcomes expressed as indicators

(qualitative and quantitative) relevant for

the area/country

Present Future

How can we achieve the desired future goals and outcomes?

- Some of our current policies and actions could get us there

- Need to account for long-term trends and surprises

- New policies could be adopted to get us to the desired future

Desired future goals based on the MEAS

Completed

Completed

Current focus

STATE and TRENDSE.g. water

IMPACTS Aspects of human well-being

PRESSURES

Anthropogenic and natural

Sectors

Human influences

Natural processes

DRIVERS

Indirect influence through human development

MEA Policy Map

Policy 3

Policy 4

Policy 5 Policy 6

Policy 8

Policy 7

Policy 1 Policy 2

Tool #4Policy Mapping

• Using the Driving Forces- - Pressure – State – Impact – Response analysis framework to map existing policies from a systems perspective

STATE and TRENDSRiver Water Quality

IMPACTS Nutrition and hydrationLivelihoodsRecreational and Cultural enjoyment

PRESSURES

Sewage Discharge

Sectors

Human influences

Natural processes

DRIVERS

Urban Growth

Decreased fish catchesLess drinking water

MEA Policy Map

Infrastructure expenditures

Sewer charges

Water quality standards

In-situ treatment

Food imports

Water imports

Job creation

incentives

Spatial development regulations

Creating a Policy Map – Example

Policy Analysis Questions

• Is the current portfolio of policies directed at the MEA sufficient to achieve the desired long-term outcome target?

• What are the leverage points (D, P, S, I) and are effective policies being directed at these leverage points?

• Is a mix of instruments being used (economic, regulatory, expenditure, institutional)?

STEP 5

ASSESSING RISKS, OPPORTUNITIES AND ADAPTATIONS

Policy Stress Testing

• To identify key policy performance risks and uncertainties that could prevent achievement of MEA outcomes

• To identify key opportunities• To improve and adapt the portfolio of policies

as necessary to ensure maintain progress toward MEA outcomes

Policy Stress Testing

• Idea of policy stress testing is to identify key factors that impact on policy performance

• Then examine policy performance under plausible future conditions that consider the most important and uncertain factors

• Can use existing scenario information to do this

GEO LAC 3 Scenarios:

GEO LAC 3 Scenarios

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Relegated Sustainability Sustainability Reforms

Unsustainability and Increased Conflicts

Transition to Sustainability

GEO 4 Scenarios

Policy Stress Test

• Considering each of the GEO LAC 3 scenarios, address the following questions:

– Risks: Is achievement of desired MEA target(s) at risk given the plausible future conditions outlined in the scenario? If so, what factors are likely to have the most impact, and how? What adaptations for the portfolio of MEA policies are necessary to mitigate against the potential risks?

– Opportunities: What opportunities does the scenario present for achieving desired MEA target(s) that have not yet been considered? What actions are necessary for the portfolio of MEA policies to be able to leverage the opportunities that may present themselves in the future?

SESSION 6

PREPARING THE MEA POLICY PLANNING BRIEF

MEA Policy Brief Template

1. Key MEA commitments and their relevance to national development priorities: ...[summarize results from Tool #1 MEA Priorities Mapping]…

2. MEA Synergies and Important Stakeholders within and outside of government:… [summarize the results of Tool #2 MEA Synergies Mapping]…

3. Possible future MEA outcome targets: …[summarize the results of Tool #3 MEA Policy Mapping]…

4. Existing MEA Policy Inventory and Recommendations:…[summarize the results of Tool #4

5. Risks and Opportunities for Achieving MEA Outcomes: ….[summarize the results of Tool #5 Policy Stress Testing]…

Further information:

lpinter@iisd.ca

http://www.unep.org/ieacp/files/pdf/mea/IEA_Training_Module_MEAs.pdfhttp://www.iisd.org/pdf/2011/iea_brochure.pdf