Post on 26-Mar-2015
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HyWays
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
HyWays
Use of COPERT model for environmental analysis
Antonio Mattucci
ENEA
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HyWays
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Summary
HyWays Project
Aim of environmental analysis
COPERT description
Approach for environmental analysis
Present status and results
Considerations
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HyWays
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
HyWays Project
HyWays is an integrated project, whose aim is to evaluate selected stake-holder scenarios for future sustainable hydrogen energy systems. This will lead to recommendations for a European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap, reflecting country specific aspects in the participating member states.
The Roadmap will consider real life conditions, by taking into account not only technological but also institutional, geographic and socio/ economic barriers and opportunities as representative for the different member states.
The Roadmap will describe systematically the future steps to be taken for large-scale introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier in the transport and power market and as storage medium for renewable energy. It will result in an action plan for the implementation of the hydrogen deployment in Europe, describing at the same time the effects and impacts of this introduction on the EU economy, society and environment. The action plan will propose concrete policy measures, priorities in technology development and train-ing/education.
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
HyWays Project
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HyWays
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
HyWays Project
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HyWays
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Aim of environmental analysis
The environmental analysis looks at the effects on environment, as consequence of The environmental analysis looks at the effects on environment, as consequence of
HH22 introduction, in terms of both global and local effects. introduction, in terms of both global and local effects.
Global effects are already considered by Global effects are already considered by MARKAL modelMARKAL model,, which is able able to which is able able to
calculate COcalculate CO2 2 emissions from energy sectors. emissions from energy sectors.
Looking at Looking at local effectslocal effects, , residential residential applications can be important and are to be applications can be important and are to be
taken into account for all the places where they have taken into account for all the places where they have significant impactsignificant impact on on
population, but only for MS where this can be important. Such analysis requires a population, but only for MS where this can be important. Such analysis requires a
clear idea of the new energy systems and their territorial localization. clear idea of the new energy systems and their territorial localization.
Therefore the most important field where the environmental impact can be evaluated Therefore the most important field where the environmental impact can be evaluated
in a general way is the in a general way is the road transportroad transport.. Such analysis will be carried out using Such analysis will be carried out using
COPERTCOPERT modelmodel..
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HyWays
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
COPERT model evaluates the emissions from road transport, considering the following vehicle categories, reflecting the UN-ECE classification:
Passenger Cars Passenger Cars M1M1 Light Duty Vehicles Light Duty Vehicles N1N1 Heavy Duty Vehicles Heavy Duty Vehicles N2, N3N2, N3 Urban Buses & Coaches Urban Buses & Coaches M2, MM2, M Two Wheelers Two Wheelers L1, L2, L3, L4, L5L1, L2, L3, L4, L5
Pollutant emissions are calculated considering the different legislations that have imposed specific vehicle emission limits during the last years. To this end the vehicle population for each of the above category is divided according to the specific applicable legislations (i.e. pre-EURO, EUROx, etc.).
COPERT descriptionCOPERT description
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HyWays
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Data to be provided as input:Data to be provided as input:
1. 1. Base Fuel DataBase Fuel Data (overall consumption of the different fuels, in order to check (overall consumption of the different fuels, in order to check the adequacy of the results, fuel specifications, etc.)the adequacy of the results, fuel specifications, etc.)
2. 2. Activity DataActivity Data (fleet composition, number of vehicles , vehicle mileage, …) (fleet composition, number of vehicles , vehicle mileage, …) 3. 3. Usage DataUsage Data (speeds and shares in the different domains, etc) (speeds and shares in the different domains, etc)4. 4. MiscellaneousMiscellaneous (i.e. monthly temperatures, average daily trip distance, (i.e. monthly temperatures, average daily trip distance,
evaporation data, average load for freight transport, etc.) evaporation data, average load for freight transport, etc.)
Data required by COPERT modelData required by COPERT model
COPERT description (2)COPERT description (2)
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Many of COPERT inputs are coming from MARKAL results. Among them we can insert the number of vehicles, organized in categories and types, the annual traveled mileage, the share of their use in different domains, the fuel consumption, etc. This doesn’t mean that MARKAL information can be automatically transferred to COPERT, as:1. The assumptions made under the two models are different; therefore a simple association of MARKAL values to similar COPERT structures is normally inadequate, as often there is neither a mutual complete overlapping, nor any easy formal way to modify MARKAL data to fit the COPERT schematisation in all the cases2. MARKAL data are typically cumulative values averaged in a decade and their distribution to the many vehicle technologies considered in COPERT for the same category can hardly be schematized in a clear and consistent way for all the vehicles3. COPERT, as it is normally used to calculate road transport emission inventory, imposes a consistency check on the overall fuel consumption, comparing the fuel result with total fuel sold in the MS, to qualify the emission calculation, but this requires real data on fuel and fleet composition, instead of PRIMES forecasts.
Input/output – Framework considerationsInput/output – Framework considerations
Approach for environmental analysisApproach for environmental analysis
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
COPERT needs other inputs in addition to MARKAL results, in particular the number of vehicles belonging to the technologiestechnologies that are applicable to each specific vehicle category, and this is required for each countryeach country.
Therefore a modelmodel, able to determine year by year the relative sharerelative share of the technologies for each vehicle type in the fleet for the time span from 2000 to 2050, has been developed.To this end a synergy has been activated with TREMOVE DBTREMOVE DB that provides the information, country by countrycountry by country, on the original fleet composition original fleet composition in a way consistent with COPERT, together with the theoretical information to extend the vehicle fleet forecast. . In fact a forecast model is required, as the data provided by TREMOVE DB cover only a time span up to 2020, while under HyWays the timeframe is to be extended to 2050.
Approach for environmental analysisApproach for environmental analysis (2)(2)
Input/output – Framework considerationsInput/output – Framework considerations
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Using TREMOVE database, for each class of vehicles, through the selection of
related data (vehicle type, technology vehicle type, technology and year year), it is possible to build the curves
of vehicle survival probability vehicle survival probability to be used to make the fleet forecast. Such
functions are specific for the different categories of vehicles (passenger cars,
LDVs, buses, etc.) and are also determined for each Member State on the basis of
statistical information.
The survival probability trends are held constant during the forecast period and
for all the technologies belonging to the same vehicle category.
Approach for environmental analysisApproach for environmental analysis (3)(3)
Input/output – Framework considerationsInput/output – Framework considerations
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Approach for environmental analysisApproach for environmental analysis (4)(4)
Survival probability functions
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
age
pro
bab
ility
Busses
Cars
Heavy duty vehicles
Light duty vehicles
Motorcycles
Italy
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Approach for environmental analysisApproach for environmental analysis (5)(5)
Survival probability functions
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
age
pro
bab
ilit
y
Busses
Cars
Heavy duty vehicles
Light duty vehicles
Motorcycles
Germany
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
The results provided by COPERT runs have been discussed with the other Project partners in the general meeting held in April at Munich. Presently it is under execution a second run of the models. In any case the following additional assumptions/positions are considered for COPERT analysis: for the reference year (2000) COPERT model has been made consistent with country statistics in road transport consumption of fuels and with MS vehicle fleet statistics; the parameters (share, speed, etc.) are not changed for all the forecasts two new EURO legislations (V and VI) have been considered in the model (through direct
modification of the ACCESS database), with changes on pollutant limits (EURO V) and in fuel consumption for both of them (i.e. as result of Voluntary Agreements between
car manufacturers and EC) for hydrogen, due to lack of information on specific emissions (mainly NOx for ICE vehicles), no pollutant emission has been considered the new limits on fuel content of SO2 for 2010 have been also introduced the COPERT vehicle population fits the results provided by MARKAL outputs
Present status and resultsPresent status and results
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (IT baseline)Preliminary results (IT baseline)Vehicle population
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2020 Year 2030 Year 2040 Year 2050
years
no
. of
veh
icle
s
Passenger Cars
Light Duty Vehicles
Heavy Duty Vehicles
Buses
Motorcycles
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (IT baseline)Preliminary results (IT baseline)CO emissions
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2020 Year 2030 Year 2040 Year 2050
years
ton
s
CO urban
CO extra-urban
CO highways
CO total
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (IT baseline)Preliminary results (IT baseline)VOC emissions
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2020 Year 2030 Year 2040 Year 2050
years
ton
s
URBAN
EXTRA_URBAN
HIGHWAY
TOTAL
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (IT baseline)Preliminary results (IT baseline)
NOx emissions
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2020 Year 2030 Year 2040 Year 2050
years
ton
s
URBAN
EXTRA_URBAN
HIGHWAY
TOTAL
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (IT baseline)Preliminary results (IT baseline)PM emissions
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2020 Year 2030 Year 2040 Year 2050
years
ton
s
URBAN
EXTRA_URBAN
HIGHWAY
TOTAL
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (IT baseline)Preliminary results (IT baseline)
Fuel consumption
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2020 Year 2030 Year 2040 Year 2050
years
ton
s
URBAN
EXTRA_URBAN
HIGHWAY
TOTAL
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (IT baseline)Preliminary results (IT baseline)
CO2 emissions
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
140000000
Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2020 Year 2030 Year 2040 Year 2050
years
ton
s
URBAN
EXTRA_URBAN
HIGHWAY
TOTAL
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (Hydrogen scenario Low - DE)Preliminary results (Hydrogen scenario Low - DE)CO emission reduction
0,0%
20,0%
40,0%
60,0%
80,0%
100,0%
120,0%
Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2020 Year 2030 Year 2040 Year 2050
years
%
CO urban
CO extra-urban
CO highway
CO total
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (Hydrogen scenario Low - DE)Preliminary results (Hydrogen scenario Low - DE)NOx emission reduction
0,0%
20,0%
40,0%
60,0%
80,0%
100,0%
120,0%
Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2020 Year 2030 Year 2040 Year 2050years
%
NOx urban
NOx extra-urban
NOx highway
NOx total
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (Hydrogen scenario Low - DE)Preliminary results (Hydrogen scenario Low - DE) PM emissions
0,0%
20,0%
40,0%
60,0%
80,0%
100,0%
120,0%
Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2020 Year 2030 Year 2040 Year 2050
years
%
PM urban
PM extraurban
PM highway
PM total
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (Hydrogen scenario Low - DE)Preliminary results (Hydrogen scenario Low - DE)VOC emission
0,0%
20,0%
40,0%
60,0%
80,0%
100,0%
120,0%
Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2020 Year 2030 Year 2040 Year 2050
years
%
VOC urban
VOC extraurban
VOC highway
VOC total
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)
Ye
ar
200
0
Ye
ar 2
010
Ye
ar
202
0
Ye
ar
2030
Ye
ar
204
0
Ye
ar 2
050 FR
DEGR
ITNL
NO
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
%
years
Countries
CO emissions
FR
DE
GR
IT
NL
NO
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)
Yea
r 20
00
Yea
r 20
10
Yea
r 20
20
Yea
r 20
30
Yea
r 20
40
Yea
r 20
50 FRDE
GRIT
NLNO
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
%
years
Countries
NOx emissions
FR
DE
GR
IT
NL
NO
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)
Ye
ar
200
0
Ye
ar
201
0
Ye
ar
202
0
Ye
ar
203
0
Ye
ar
204
0
Ye
ar
205
0 FRDE
GRIT
NLNO
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
%
years
Countries
VOC emissions
FR
DE
GR
IT
NL
NO
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)
Ye
ar
200
0
Ye
ar
201
0
Ye
ar
202
0
Ye
ar
203
0
Ye
ar
204
0
Ye
ar
205
0 FRDE
GRIT
NLNO
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
%
years
Countries
PM emissions
FR
DE
GR
IT
NL
NO
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)
Ye
ar
200
0
Ye
ar
201
0
Ye
ar
202
0
Ye
ar
203
0
Ye
ar
204
0
Ye
ar
205
0 FRDE
GRIT
NLNO
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
%
years
Countries
Fuel consumption
FR
DE
GR
IT
NL
NO
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
For all the MS the introduction of hydrogen vehicles provides interesting benefits, at least for the regulated emissions. For the other emissions the analysis has not yet been done.Due to the larger initial penetration of hydrogen vehicles, the most consistent effects are detected in the urban domains, while in the highways the effects are of lower, as trucks are not converted and this keeps high the pollutant emissions.Looking at the two H2 scenarios, the effects are quite different at 2050; from the point of view of the emission the “low” scenario can be considered as delayed of 10-15 years respect to the “high” one. Of course, the main driving factor for pollutant emission reduction is the number of vehicles, as H2 is almost emission free.
Considerations Considerations