Post on 16-Dec-2015
Page 1© WMO copyright 2005
Dr. B. Nyenzi, Acting DirectorPenehuro Fatu Lefale, Scientific Officer
World Climate Programme (WCP)World Meteorological Organization (WMO)Email: Bnyenzi@wmo.int; Plefale@wmo.int
Website: www.wmo.int
Climate Outlook Forums and Agricultural Applications
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Overview
2. Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS): Origin, Purpose, Objectives, Activities
3. Regional Climate Outlooks Forums (RCOFS)
4. Applications of Climate Outlooks for Agriculture
1. Introduction: Seamless Forecasts, International Climate Activities
5. On-going and Future Activities
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Seamless Forecasts
Tra
nsp
ort
atio
nT
ran
spo
rta
tion
Tra
nsp
ort
atio
nT
ran
spo
rta
tion
Fo
reca
st
Lea
d T
ime
Fo
reca
st
Lea
d T
ime
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
PredictionPrediction
Pro
tect
ion
of
Pro
tect
ion
of
Life
& P
rop
ert
yL
ife &
Pro
pe
rty
Pro
tect
ion
of
Pro
tect
ion
of
Life
& P
rop
ert
yL
ife &
Pro
pe
rty
Sp
ace
S
pa
ce
Op
era
tion
Op
era
tion
Sp
ace
S
pa
ce
Op
era
tion
Op
era
tion
Re
cre
atio
nR
ecr
ea
tion
Re
cre
atio
nR
ecr
ea
tion
Eco
syst
em
Eco
syst
em
Eco
syst
em
Eco
syst
em
Sta
te/L
oca
l S
tate
/Lo
cal
Pla
nn
ing
Pla
nn
ing
Sta
te/L
oca
l S
tate
/Lo
cal
Pla
nn
ing
Pla
nn
ing
En
viro
nm
en
tE
nvi
ron
me
nt
En
viro
nm
en
tE
nvi
ron
me
nt
Flo
od
Miti
ga
tion
F
loo
d M
itig
atio
n
& N
avi
ga
tion
& N
avi
ga
tion
Flo
od
Miti
ga
tion
F
loo
d M
itig
atio
n
& N
avi
ga
tion
& N
avi
ga
tion
Ag
ricu
ltu
reA
gri
cult
ure
Ag
ricu
ltu
reA
gri
cult
ure
Re
serv
oir
Re
serv
oir
Co
ntr
ol
Co
ntr
ol
Re
serv
oir
Re
serv
oir
Co
ntr
ol
Co
ntr
ol
En
erg
yE
ne
rgy
En
erg
yE
ne
rgy
Co
mm
erc
eC
om
me
rce
Co
mm
erc
eC
om
me
rce
Benefits
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Fire
We
ath
er
Fire
We
ath
er
Fire
We
ath
er
Fire
We
ath
er
He
alth
He
alth
He
alth
He
alth
Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
Initial Conditions
Boundary Conditions
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
1 Week1 Week
2 Week2 Week
MonthsMonths
SeasonsSeasons
YearsYears
Weather
Climate
Climate Change: change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability
or as a result of human activity (IPCC). Scenarios
GHG Emissions & Concentrations
Climate Change: change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere
and that is in addition to natural variability observed over comparable time periods (UNFCCC).
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International Climate Activities
ISSCInternational
Social ScienceCouncil
ICSUInternational Council for
Science
UNESCOUN EducationalScientific and
Cultural Organization
WMO UN WORLDBANK
FAO WHO
IOC MAB UNEP UNDP
IPCC UN FCCC/COP GEF
IACCAInter-Agency Committee on the Climate Agenda
IHDPInternational
HumanDimensionsProgramme
IGBPInternationalGeosphere-Biosphere
Programme
WCRP WCDMP WCASP WCIRP
GOOS(IOC, WMO, UNEP, ICSU)
GCOS(WMO, IOC, UNEP, ICSU)
GTOS(UNEP, FAO, UNESCO, WMO, ICSU)
THE CLIMATE AGENDA
WORLD CLIMATE PROGRAMME
InternationalNon-government
Organization
INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMMES
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WCPWorld Climate Programme
WMO’s World Climate Programme (WCP)
WCDMPWorld Climate Data and Monitoring Programme
WCIRPWorld Climate Impact Assessment
and Response Strategies Programme
WCASPWorld Climate Applications and
Services Programme & CLIPS
WCRPWorld Climate
Research Programme
WMO Coordinated UNEP Coordinated ICSU Coordinated
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REGION IREGION IAfricaAfrica(56 Members(56 Members))
REGION IIIREGION IIISouth AmericaSouth America(13 Members)(13 Members)
REGION VREGION VSouth-West PacificSouth-West Pacific(22 Members)(22 Members)
REGION VIREGION VIEuropeEurope(49 Members)(49 Members)
REGION IVREGION IVNorth America, North America, Central AmericaCentral Americaand the and the CaribbeanCaribbean(25 Members)(25 Members)
REGION IIREGION IIAsiaAsia(35 Members)(35 Members)
WMO’s Regional Associations (RA)
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CLIPS’ Origin: Scientific basis
1. Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere Programme (TOGA/CORE) - TAO
2. ENSO prediction
3. Seasonal to Inter-annual Predictions (SIPs) and Applications
Source: US NOAA
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CLIPS’ Origin
1. Establish by the 12th WMO Congress in 1995 – part of WCASP
2. Increase awareness of the importance of SIPs in decision-making process in
climate sensitive sectors
3. Recognition of the importance of international collaboration in
SIPs
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CLIPS’ Ultimate Goal
‘Internationally robust and scientifically sound climate information and prediction services incorporated in climate sensitive sectors’ decision making processes in all Member countries of WMO’
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CLIPS’ Objectives1. Establish an international project to
coordinate development and applications of Seasonal to Inter-annual Predictions (SIPs)
2. To investigate and facilitate the establishment of Regional
Climate Centers (RCC)
3. To promote the science and applications of SIPs – Education, Training, Public Awareness and Capacity Building
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CLIPS’ main activities
1. Enhance capacity of NMHSs in SIPs and their applications
2. Development of guidelines and methodologies on SIPs and applications on climate
sensitive sectors and systems
3. Provide users with new CLIPS in light of new scientific understanding and establish links between providers of and users of SIPs
4. Coordinate joint international research with WCRP and other International Climate Programmes & Activities
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The Global Climate Prediction Centers
CIIFEN
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• A component of CLIPS
• First established in 1996: Meeting in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe.
• Regional mechanism for the formulation and dissemination of climate outlooks
• Bring together providers of and users of SIPs.
CLIPS - Regional Climate Outlooks Forums (RCOFs)
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The Forum Proper(1 wk)
The Pre-Forum(4-6 wks)
Guidance
Initial Predictors
Climate Forecasters
Ensemble Product
The Regional Climate Outlook Forum Process
• Latest information on the climate system
• Global SST anomaly • El Nino Prediction
Model• etc
Seasonal Forecast
Experiments(Hind-cast)
Verification
DisseminationNMHSs, etc.
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The Forum Proper
ExpertAssessment
Climatology
ObservationsF
OR
EC
AS
TS
CLIPS
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Scientific and technical analysis and prediction
Social, Economic and Development Actions
Global Analysis and Prediction
Centres
Global Applications
Centres
International User
Organizations
Regional
User
Organizations
Regional Analysis and Prediction
Centres
Regional Applications
Centres
National Meteorological
and Hydrological Services
Sector support
institutions
Multi- stakeholders
users
CLIPS: RCOFs – the process
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Central America
West Coast of South America
Caribbean
West Africa
Southern Africa
Greater Horn of Africa
Southeastern Asia
Southeastern South America
Pacific
North Africa
CLIPS - RCOFs
Asia
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o Regular Forums in some regions where NMHSs meet to develop regional consensus on SIPs.
o More than 35 forums held throughout the world.
First Climate Outlook Forum for RA II, Asia, Beijing, China, 7-9 April 2005.
First Climate Outlook Forum for RA II, Asia, Beijing, China, 7-9 April 2005.
CLIPS - RCOFs
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Source: FOCRAII (Asia), 7-9 April, 2005, BCC, CMA, Beijing, China
Precipitation:
•MORE THAN NORMAL: the Yangtze River Basin, Indochina Peninsula, northern Central Asia, and southern Japan•LESS THAN NORMAL: NE China, Korean Peninsula, Northern Japan, and India
Air Temperature:
•HIGHER THAN NORMAL: the north of 40N latitude and tropical areas
•LOWER THAN NORMAL: central regions (e.g Eastern China)
Typhoons NW Pacific 2005:
• 27 to 29 (around normal: CN = 28)
• No of typhoons landing in China is predicted to be 6 to 8 (near normal: CN =7)
Seasonal Predictions for the summer of 2005: Asia
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Source: 15th RCOF GHA, 2 – 4 March, 2005,Mombasa, Kenya
OUTLOOK (MAM):
• ZI: NBN SSW Tanzania•ZII: ANN CN Tanzania; Rwanda; Burundi; S.Uganda, CS Kenya•ZIII: NBN Kenya, CN Uganda, SW Sudan, SE Ethiopia and Somalia•ZIV: NAN E Djibouti, W Ethiopia and parts of eastern Sudan
•ZV: NBN NW Ethiopia, SW Eritrea
•ZVI: Climatology, N Sudan, much of Eritrea and W Djibouiti
Seasonal Predictions for the summer of 2005: GHA
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Source: Island Climate Update (ICU), NIWA, NZ
Selected Seasonal Predictions for the summer (winter) of 2005: The Pacific Islands
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Source: CIIFEN: Centro International para la Investigaciön del Fenömeno de El NinoW
estern South A
merica (A
MJ
2005)
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Linking science and policy making
Increased awareness and utilization of CLIPS to safeguard socio-economic well-being
NMHSs; Other WMO & UN Programmes; Multi-stakeholders
Increased demand for CLIPS
CLIPS – RCOFs Achievements
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CLIPS’ web site
1. Clearing house on CLIPS activities
2. Making SIPs matter
3. Provide users with new CLIPS in light of new breakthrough in scientific understanding and establish links between providers of and users of SIPs
4. Coordinate joint international research with WCRP and other International Climate Programmes & Activities
http://www.wmo.ch/web/wcp/clips2001/html/index.html
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Applications to Agriculture
1. Climate Outlook provide an opportunity to plan mitigation measures before the season begins.
2. Timely, tailored climate information and Early Warning Systems for the coming months or season make it possible for planners to more effectively deal with their climate-related issues through improved practices.
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Applications to Agriculture
1. Short-term: agro-meteorological information useful for;
(a) Provision of planting schedules
(b) Utilization of inputs or other factors of production
(c) Identification of varieties adapted to seasons
(d) Identification of dates suitable for farming under optimum conditions based on short term predictions.
2. Medium to long-term:
(a) Prevention of damage due to weather and climate conditions and pests on harvest
(b) Building national safety stock
(c) Market regulation
(d) Food aid projections
(e) Mitigation of food crises
(f) Plan fodder
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Strategies for Coping with Climatic Variations in Agriculture
CONSUMPTION vs CONSUMPTION vs PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION
Ex ANTEEx ANTE
(based on expectation)(based on expectation)
Ex POSTEx POST
(based on event (based on event realization)realization)
ConsumptionConsumption: • reduce impact of fluctuations in output on access to consumer goods and services
• Accumulate assets• Purchase crop or weather insurance• Make a share cropping contract• Arrange to share with family, community • Diversify income
• Buy or sell assets • Receive or provide transfers• Seek non-agricultural employment• Cash insurance check• Accept government disaster payments
Production:Production: • reduce adverse impact of climate event on agricultural output and profits• exploit opportunities
• Diversify crops, livestock• Select climatically robust seeds, animals• Invest or disinvest in irrigation, fertilizer, etc.
• Reduce or intensify inputs • Change crops• Move production • Irrigate fields
Source: US National Academy of Science, 1999.
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On-going and Future (O & F) Activities
CCl OPAG 3
•Responsible for Climate Applications, Information and Prediction Services
•New structure designed to improve efficiency
CLIPS Project
Demonstration Projects• Importance of projects that demonstrate value of climate services
• Multi-disciplinary conference on decision processes for spring 2006?
RCOF •Play important role in building capacity of climate experts and information users
•There is significant growth in understanding the links between climate services and socio-economic activities
•Need for support of continued RCOFs activities
•Continued effort to develop the CLIPS Focal Point Network
• Capacity building through regional workshops
– Plans under way for workshops in RA III
• Further development of CLIPS Training Curriculum and web site
• Focal Point annual reports
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Climate Applications
• Climate and Human Health
-- CCl OPAG3 ETs developing Guidelines on HHWS and a brochure on Heat -Health Waves– On going collaboration between WMO and other agencies especially WHO on various Climate and health activities is encouraged– Efforts being made to evaluate the status and lessons learned from Rome, Italy and Shanghai, China Projects
O & F Activities
Climate Applications
•Urban and Building Climatology– Emphasis is on activities that address environmental issues related to mega-cities and urban areas– CCl through its relevant ETs to develop collaboration with related activities of other Commissions
• Climate Services for Energy– Support activities that promote development of renewable energy resources for efficient use of energy– CCl decided to revise a number of outdated WMO technical Notes on Energy to enhance their usefulness
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O & F Activities
Regional Climate Center(s)
CCl ad hoc Expert Team was convened in November 2003 to develop Guidelines for use by Regional Associations (RAs) in describing requirements and procedures for implementing RCCs
• Establishment of RCCs is the responsibility of RA
CLIPS Link to other programmes
•Major potential benefits gained through links between CLIPS and other research Institutions and programmes such as IRI, CLIVAR, and regional institutions
• CLIPS has continued to support activities on downscaling prediction products
• CLIPS has continued to collaborate with other climate programmes (e.g. WCRP –COPES)
• WMO El Niño Updates
• ET on El Niño Definitions and Indices
• Survey Questionnaire being developed
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Concluding Remarks
• Uncertainty embedded in climate predictions - ‘chaotic’ processes inherent in the oceanic-atmospheric system
• Skill of the SIP varies by geographic region, by climate parameter and by time-scale
• Strengthen CLIPS-RCOFs
Operational • Improved Climatology • 6 to 12-month forecast in every month • Probability forecast• Real-time monitoring of verification (WMO-SVS)
Major Research Topics• Model improvement
• climate system model (more component of climate system, ice/land…)
• land surface initialization• direct couple scheme/coupler
• Statistical-dynamical combination (downscaling…)• multi-model ensemble• CLIPS Applications on specific agricultural sectors