Page 1 © WMO copyright 2005 Dr. B. Nyenzi, Acting Director Penehuro Fatu Lefale, Scientific Officer...

© WMO copyright 2005

Dr. B. Nyenzi, Acting DirectorPenehuro Fatu Lefale, Scientific Officer

World Climate Programme (WCP)World Meteorological Organization (WMO)Email: [email protected]; [email protected]

Website: www.wmo.int

Climate Outlook Forums and Agricultural Applications


Overview

2. Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS): Origin, Purpose, Objectives, Activities

3. Regional Climate Outlooks Forums (RCOFS)

4. Applications of Climate Outlooks for Agriculture

1. Introduction: Seamless Forecasts, International Climate Activities

5. On-going and Future Activities


Seamless Forecasts

Tra

nsp

ort

atio

nT

ran

spo

rta

tion

Tra

nsp

ort

atio

nT

ran

spo

rta

tion

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

PredictionPrediction

Pro

tect

ion

of

Pro

tect

ion

of

Life

& P

rop

ert

yL

ife &

Pro

pe

rty

Pro

tect

ion

of

Pro

tect

ion

of

Life

& P

rop

ert

yL

ife &

Pro

pe

rty

Sp

ace

S

pa

ce

Op

era

tion

Op

era

tion

Sp

ace

S

pa

ce

Op

era

tion

Op

era

tion

Re

cre

atio

nR

ecr

ea

tion

Re

cre

atio

nR

ecr

ea

tion

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

Sta

te/L

oca

l S

tate

/Lo

cal

Pla

nn

ing

Pla

nn

ing

Sta

te/L

oca

l S

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/Lo

cal

Pla

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ing

Pla

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En

viro

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en

tE

nvi

ron

me

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En

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Flo

od

Miti

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tion

F

loo

d M

itig

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& N

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ga

tion

& N

avi

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Flo

od

Miti

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tion

F

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itig

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& N

avi

ga

tion

& N

avi

ga

tion

Ag

ricu

ltu

reA

gri

cult

ure

Ag

ricu

ltu

reA

gri

cult

ure

Re

serv

oir

Re

serv

oir

Co

ntr

ol

Co

ntr

ol

Re

serv

oir

Re

serv

oir

Co

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ol

Co

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ol

En

erg

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ne

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En

erg

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Co

mm

erc

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me

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Co

mm

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Benefits

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Fire

We

ath

er

Fire

We

ath

er

Fire

We

ath

er

Fire

We

ath

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He

alth

He

alth

He

alth

He

alth

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

Initial Conditions

Boundary Conditions

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

Weather

Climate

Climate Change: change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability

or as a result of human activity (IPCC). Scenarios

GHG Emissions & Concentrations

Climate Change: change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere

and that is in addition to natural variability observed over comparable time periods (UNFCCC).


International Climate Activities

ISSCInternational

Social ScienceCouncil

ICSUInternational Council for

Science

UNESCOUN EducationalScientific and

Cultural Organization

WMO UN WORLDBANK

FAO WHO

IOC MAB UNEP UNDP

IPCC UN FCCC/COP GEF

IACCAInter-Agency Committee on the Climate Agenda

IHDPInternational

HumanDimensionsProgramme

IGBPInternationalGeosphere-Biosphere

Programme

WCRP WCDMP WCASP WCIRP

GOOS(IOC, WMO, UNEP, ICSU)

GCOS(WMO, IOC, UNEP, ICSU)

GTOS(UNEP, FAO, UNESCO, WMO, ICSU)

THE CLIMATE AGENDA

WORLD CLIMATE PROGRAMME

InternationalNon-government

Organization

INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMMES


WCPWorld Climate Programme

WMO’s World Climate Programme (WCP)

WCDMPWorld Climate Data and Monitoring Programme

WCIRPWorld Climate Impact Assessment

and Response Strategies Programme

WCASPWorld Climate Applications and

Services Programme & CLIPS

WCRPWorld Climate

Research Programme

WMO Coordinated UNEP Coordinated ICSU Coordinated


REGION IREGION IAfricaAfrica(56 Members(56 Members))

REGION IIIREGION IIISouth AmericaSouth America(13 Members)(13 Members)

REGION VREGION VSouth-West PacificSouth-West Pacific(22 Members)(22 Members)

REGION VIREGION VIEuropeEurope(49 Members)(49 Members)

REGION IVREGION IVNorth America, North America, Central AmericaCentral Americaand the and the CaribbeanCaribbean(25 Members)(25 Members)

REGION IIREGION IIAsiaAsia(35 Members)(35 Members)

WMO’s Regional Associations (RA)


CLIPS’ Origin: Scientific basis

1. Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere Programme (TOGA/CORE) - TAO

2. ENSO prediction

3. Seasonal to Inter-annual Predictions (SIPs) and Applications

Source: US NOAA


CLIPS’ Origin

1. Establish by the 12th WMO Congress in 1995 – part of WCASP

2. Increase awareness of the importance of SIPs in decision-making process in

climate sensitive sectors

3. Recognition of the importance of international collaboration in

SIPs


CLIPS’ Ultimate Goal

‘Internationally robust and scientifically sound climate information and prediction services incorporated in climate sensitive sectors’ decision making processes in all Member countries of WMO’


CLIPS’ Objectives1. Establish an international project to

coordinate development and applications of Seasonal to Inter-annual Predictions (SIPs)

2. To investigate and facilitate the establishment of Regional

Climate Centers (RCC)

3. To promote the science and applications of SIPs – Education, Training, Public Awareness and Capacity Building


CLIPS’ main activities

1. Enhance capacity of NMHSs in SIPs and their applications

2. Development of guidelines and methodologies on SIPs and applications on climate

sensitive sectors and systems

3. Provide users with new CLIPS in light of new scientific understanding and establish links between providers of and users of SIPs

4. Coordinate joint international research with WCRP and other International Climate Programmes & Activities


The Global Climate Prediction Centers

CIIFEN


• A component of CLIPS

• First established in 1996: Meeting in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe.

• Regional mechanism for the formulation and dissemination of climate outlooks

• Bring together providers of and users of SIPs.

CLIPS - Regional Climate Outlooks Forums (RCOFs)


The Forum Proper(1 wk)

The Pre-Forum(4-6 wks)

Guidance

Initial Predictors

Climate Forecasters

Ensemble Product

The Regional Climate Outlook Forum Process

• Latest information on the climate system

• Global SST anomaly • El Nino Prediction

Model• etc

Seasonal Forecast

Experiments(Hind-cast)

Verification

DisseminationNMHSs, etc.


The Forum Proper

ExpertAssessment

Climatology

ObservationsF

OR

EC

AS

TS

CLIPS


Scientific and technical analysis and prediction

Social, Economic and Development Actions

Global Analysis and Prediction

Centres

Global Applications

Centres

International User

Organizations

Regional

User

Organizations

Regional Analysis and Prediction

Centres

Regional Applications

Centres

National Meteorological

and Hydrological Services

Sector support

institutions

Multi- stakeholders

users

CLIPS: RCOFs – the process


Central America

West Coast of South America

Caribbean

West Africa

Southern Africa

Greater Horn of Africa

Southeastern Asia

Southeastern South America

Pacific

North Africa

CLIPS - RCOFs

Asia


o Regular Forums in some regions where NMHSs meet to develop regional consensus on SIPs.

o More than 35 forums held throughout the world.

First Climate Outlook Forum for RA II, Asia, Beijing, China, 7-9 April 2005.

First Climate Outlook Forum for RA II, Asia, Beijing, China, 7-9 April 2005.

CLIPS - RCOFs


Source: FOCRAII (Asia), 7-9 April, 2005, BCC, CMA, Beijing, China

Precipitation:

•MORE THAN NORMAL: the Yangtze River Basin, Indochina Peninsula, northern Central Asia, and southern Japan•LESS THAN NORMAL: NE China, Korean Peninsula, Northern Japan, and India

Air Temperature:

•HIGHER THAN NORMAL: the north of 40N latitude and tropical areas

•LOWER THAN NORMAL: central regions (e.g Eastern China)

Typhoons NW Pacific 2005:

• 27 to 29 (around normal: CN = 28)

• No of typhoons landing in China is predicted to be 6 to 8 (near normal: CN =7)

Seasonal Predictions for the summer of 2005: Asia


Source: 15th RCOF GHA, 2 – 4 March, 2005,Mombasa, Kenya

OUTLOOK (MAM):

• ZI: NBN SSW Tanzania•ZII: ANN CN Tanzania; Rwanda; Burundi; S.Uganda, CS Kenya•ZIII: NBN Kenya, CN Uganda, SW Sudan, SE Ethiopia and Somalia•ZIV: NAN E Djibouti, W Ethiopia and parts of eastern Sudan

•ZV: NBN NW Ethiopia, SW Eritrea

•ZVI: Climatology, N Sudan, much of Eritrea and W Djibouiti

Seasonal Predictions for the summer of 2005: GHA


Source: Island Climate Update (ICU), NIWA, NZ

Selected Seasonal Predictions for the summer (winter) of 2005: The Pacific Islands


Source: CIIFEN: Centro International para la Investigaciön del Fenömeno de El NinoW

estern South A

merica (A

MJ

2005)


Linking science and policy making

Increased awareness and utilization of CLIPS to safeguard socio-economic well-being

NMHSs; Other WMO & UN Programmes; Multi-stakeholders

Increased demand for CLIPS

CLIPS – RCOFs Achievements


CLIPS’ web site

1. Clearing house on CLIPS activities

2. Making SIPs matter

3. Provide users with new CLIPS in light of new breakthrough in scientific understanding and establish links between providers of and users of SIPs

4. Coordinate joint international research with WCRP and other International Climate Programmes & Activities

http://www.wmo.ch/web/wcp/clips2001/html/index.html


Applications to Agriculture

1. Climate Outlook provide an opportunity to plan mitigation measures before the season begins.

2. Timely, tailored climate information and Early Warning Systems for the coming months or season make it possible for planners to more effectively deal with their climate-related issues through improved practices.


Applications to Agriculture

1. Short-term: agro-meteorological information useful for;

(a) Provision of planting schedules

(b) Utilization of inputs or other factors of production

(c) Identification of varieties adapted to seasons

(d) Identification of dates suitable for farming under optimum conditions based on short term predictions.

2. Medium to long-term:

(a) Prevention of damage due to weather and climate conditions and pests on harvest

(b) Building national safety stock

(c) Market regulation

(d) Food aid projections

(e) Mitigation of food crises

(f) Plan fodder


Strategies for Coping with Climatic Variations in Agriculture

CONSUMPTION vs CONSUMPTION vs PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION

Ex ANTEEx ANTE

(based on expectation)(based on expectation)

Ex POSTEx POST

(based on event (based on event realization)realization)

ConsumptionConsumption: • reduce impact of fluctuations in output on access to consumer goods and services

• Accumulate assets• Purchase crop or weather insurance• Make a share cropping contract• Arrange to share with family, community • Diversify income

• Buy or sell assets • Receive or provide transfers• Seek non-agricultural employment• Cash insurance check• Accept government disaster payments

Production:Production: • reduce adverse impact of climate event on agricultural output and profits• exploit opportunities

• Diversify crops, livestock• Select climatically robust seeds, animals• Invest or disinvest in irrigation, fertilizer, etc.

• Reduce or intensify inputs • Change crops• Move production • Irrigate fields

Source: US National Academy of Science, 1999.


On-going and Future (O & F) Activities

CCl OPAG 3

•Responsible for Climate Applications, Information and Prediction Services

•New structure designed to improve efficiency

CLIPS Project

Demonstration Projects• Importance of projects that demonstrate value of climate services

• Multi-disciplinary conference on decision processes for spring 2006?

RCOF •Play important role in building capacity of climate experts and information users

•There is significant growth in understanding the links between climate services and socio-economic activities

•Need for support of continued RCOFs activities

•Continued effort to develop the CLIPS Focal Point Network

• Capacity building through regional workshops

– Plans under way for workshops in RA III

• Further development of CLIPS Training Curriculum and web site

• Focal Point annual reports


Climate Applications

• Climate and Human Health

-- CCl OPAG3 ETs developing Guidelines on HHWS and a brochure on Heat -Health Waves– On going collaboration between WMO and other agencies especially WHO on various Climate and health activities is encouraged– Efforts being made to evaluate the status and lessons learned from Rome, Italy and Shanghai, China Projects

O & F Activities

Climate Applications

•Urban and Building Climatology– Emphasis is on activities that address environmental issues related to mega-cities and urban areas– CCl through its relevant ETs to develop collaboration with related activities of other Commissions

• Climate Services for Energy– Support activities that promote development of renewable energy resources for efficient use of energy– CCl decided to revise a number of outdated WMO technical Notes on Energy to enhance their usefulness


O & F Activities

Regional Climate Center(s)

CCl ad hoc Expert Team was convened in November 2003 to develop Guidelines for use by Regional Associations (RAs) in describing requirements and procedures for implementing RCCs

• Establishment of RCCs is the responsibility of RA

CLIPS Link to other programmes

•Major potential benefits gained through links between CLIPS and other research Institutions and programmes such as IRI, CLIVAR, and regional institutions

• CLIPS has continued to support activities on downscaling prediction products

• CLIPS has continued to collaborate with other climate programmes (e.g. WCRP –COPES)

• WMO El Niño Updates

• ET on El Niño Definitions and Indices

• Survey Questionnaire being developed


Concluding Remarks

• Uncertainty embedded in climate predictions - ‘chaotic’ processes inherent in the oceanic-atmospheric system

• Skill of the SIP varies by geographic region, by climate parameter and by time-scale

• Strengthen CLIPS-RCOFs

Operational • Improved Climatology • 6 to 12-month forecast in every month • Probability forecast• Real-time monitoring of verification (WMO-SVS)

Major Research Topics• Model improvement

• climate system model (more component of climate system, ice/land…)

• land surface initialization• direct couple scheme/coupler

• Statistical-dynamical combination (downscaling…)• multi-model ensemble• CLIPS Applications on specific agricultural sectors

Page 1 © WMO copyright 2005 Dr. B. Nyenzi, Acting Director Penehuro Fatu Lefale, Scientific Officer...

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Transcript of Page 1 © WMO copyright 2005 Dr. B. Nyenzi, Acting Director Penehuro Fatu Lefale, Scientific Officer...