Post on 26-Dec-2015
Our Immersive FutureTwelve Tech and Social Developments Worth Fighting For
ImTech 2010Los Angeles, CA
John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundationjohnsmart@accelerating.orgSlides: accelerating.org/slides.html
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AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do
▪ We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both: 1. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that
we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and creative paths (most of which will fail) and a small set of
2. Convergent and predictable developmental constraints (initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain aspects of our long-range future.
▪ Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include:– Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity
in our global sociotechnological systems– Increasing technological autonomy, and – Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical-
digital interface.
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
From the Metaverse to Metahumanity:Evolutionary Development of the Web
Web 1.0 Read Mainly (Graphical UI)
Web 2.0 Read/Write/Play (Participatory, Social UI)
Web 3.0 Video (iTV, Geosocial Web, AR, VW, MW)
Web 4.0 Semantic (CI, Cyber/Lobbytwins, Valuecosm)
Web 5.0 Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain, NUI ‘Tech and Social Singularity’)
We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback.
Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony (iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking (Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video (YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin), lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude).
Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA, ‘Sociotech’) than of artificial intelligence (AI, ‘Infotech’). This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction process society has ever engaged in.
Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). Metaverseroadmap.org
Web
Metaverse
Metahumanity
Metaverseroadmap.org
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Video Cellphone, Tablet, and Laptop
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Wearcam.org’s first-gen‘sousveillance’ cams (2001)
‘Bracelet phone’ concept (Vodafone 2006)
‘Carpal PC’ concept(Metaverse Roadmap 2007)
Flip Ultra (2007, $130)Top-selling camcorder.
Necklace phone(Nokia 2004)
iPhone (Apple 2007)
Wearable AR and Full AR Cellphone
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AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Wearable LifeLog Cellphone
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
© 2010 Accelerating.org
What are the most exciting developmental uses for a tablet? #1. iTV Remote! #2. e-Reading, #3 Video, #4 Games, #5 Clipboard.
There are about 2.3 billion TVs in the world. 15,000+ streamable TV channels. Thousands more sit on the web, waiting for bandwidth. May be hundreds of thousands by 2015.
25% of US TVs sold in Jan 2010 were connected by consumers to the internet (internally or via a set top box, game console, DVD player), 40% of these were internally-enabled.
Tablet TV Remote: Voice enabled, collaborative filtering of thousands of channels, 2ndary screen, social viewing (chat, teamspeak), P2PTV, true internet television.
Lenovo Ideapad U1: Bestmultiuse design. June 2010
Will Google get this done?
A perfect YouTube front end.
Apple iPad: No Apple TV.Too little, too closed.
iTV (True Internet Television)
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Third-Cave, Half-Cave, Game Table, and Game Space
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Conversational Interface, Memeshows, Cybertwins, and Valuecosm
Date Avg. Query Platform
1998 1.3 words Altavista2005 2.6 words Google2012 5.2 words GoogleHelp2019 10.4 words
GoogleBrain
Average spoken human-to-humanquery length is 8-11 words.
Codebreaking follows a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may as well.
Smart, J. 2003. The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Better Socialization and Intimacy
© 2009 Accelerating.org© 2010 Accelerating.org
▪ A permanently better new primary way of interacting with our machines.
▪ Start with a game (limited domain) and kids (patience for avatars of limited intelligence).
▪ Once this conversational interface is server-based, it will get smarter every month. Like Google’s does now. Then every week.
▪ A time when serious games can get serious. Milo and Kate, Lionhead Studios, Peter Molyneux (Proposed Dec 2010)
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Better Work and Collaboration
© 2009 Accelerating.org
When we have an early Metaverse 2.0, lifelogs, and pervasive broadband connectivity, we can expect…
150 (Dunbar number) of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page 2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7.
A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders).
Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals. Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation.
New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.).
Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill) and performance enhancement.
Fantastic new subcultural diversity (transhumanist symbionts, Amish symbionts, etc.)
Page, Scott. 2008. The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools and Societies, Princeton U. Press.
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Better Democracy and Civics
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Better Learning and Edutainment/Serious Games
© 2009 Accelerating.org
What Do You Want to Improve? IT/Infrastructure Mgmt Identity Management Social Networks Video Management Marketing Education Knowledge Management Performance Management Talent Management Innovation Social Responsibility Environmental Sustainability Organizational Development Collective Foresight
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Better Healing and Addiction Management
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Better Decisionmaking and Self-Actualization
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Some Challenges - particularly early: Data Security and Privacy Predictive Marketing and Profiling Debt Slavery and Overconsumption New Forms of Crime and Fraud Polarizing and Isolating Eco Chambers (collapse of community) Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?) New Addictions and Dependencies (CT ‘relationships’?)
Some Opportunities - particularly later: Indiv. Intell./Performance Enhancement (Complete your
sentences?) Group Intelligence/Perform. Enhancement (Symbiont networks) Subculture Diversity and Victimless Variety Global Communication & Collaboration (no language barrier) Digital and Educational Divides (greatly reduced) Indiv./Group/Culture Rights Representation (‘lobby twins’) Transparency and Accountablity of Corps, Institutions, Govts.