OPEESA Executive trends Index€¦ · opeesa executive trends index o utdoor p ower e quipment and...

OPEESA EXECUTIVE TRENDS INDEX

OUTDOOR POWER EQUIPMENT AND ENGINE SERVICE ASSOCIATIONNovember 2016

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Background Slide 3

Distributor Survey Results Slides 4-41

Manufacturer Survey Results Slides 42-72

OPEESA EXECUTIVE TRENDS INDEX

Source: OPEESA Executive Trends Index

OPEESA Respondents

Distributors Manufacturers

DISTRIBUTOR SURVEY4

Product CategoriesMowers represent largest product category for OPEESA distributors

20% 21%

Mowers Engines Handheld Equip. Snow products Other

Category Exposure - Distributors

Sales by Region88% of distributors have exposure in the South region

Northeast South Midwest West Other

Geographic Exposure - Distributors

Customer ExposureOPEESA distributors have a higher exposure to Professional customers 7

Consumer, 42%

Professional, 58%

Customer Exposure - Distributors

NEAR-TERM SALES8

All Distributors Distributor growth improved 2 points in 3Q and 4Q outlooks are slightly stronger

2%3% 3%

Comparable Sales Growth - Distributors

All DistributorsAugust was the strongest month since March for Distributors 10

Comparable Sales Growth - Distributors

Sales vs Expectations3Q sales growth was below expectations in total

Much better thanexpectations

Better thanexpectations

In-line withexpectations

Worse thanexpectations

Much worse thanexpectations

3Q16 Sales vs Expectations - Distributors

Weather ImpactWeather was a 0.6 point headwind in 3Q (weighted average)

27% 27%

Helped sales by morethan 2 points versus

last year

Helped sales by 1-2points versus last year

No impact – weather similar versus last year

Hurt sales by 1-2points versus last year

Hurt sales by morethan 2 points versus

last year

Please estimate the impact of weather on your sales growth during 3Q16.

last year

No impact – similar versus last year

last year

Please estimate the impact of U.S. Headlines on your sales growth during 3Q?

U.S. Headline ImpactU.S. Headlines were a 0.6 point headwind in 3Q (weighted average)

4Q Estimates4Q growth forecasts moved slightly higher last 90 days

Raised forecastmeaningfully

Raised forecastmodestly

No change Lowered forecastmodestly

Lowered forecastmeaningfully

Have you raised or lowered your 4Q sales growth forecast the last 90 days?

2017 Sales Growth Forecasts19% of distributors raised 2017 sales growth forecasts last 90 days 15

Raised forecastmeaningfully

Lowered forecastmeaningfully

Have you raised or lowered your 2017 sales growth forecast the last 90 days?

Pro Distributors 3Q growth improved 3 points vs 2Q 16

6%6% 6%

Comparable Sales Growth - Distributors (Pro)

Pro DistributorsPro Distributors seeing solid recovery since July

Consumer DistributorsConsumer sales growth improved 2 points compared to 2Q

9% 9%9%

Comparable Sales Growth - Distributors (Consumer)

Consumer DistributorsConsumer sales accelerated since July 19

REGIONAL PERFORMANCE20

NortheastNortheast distributor growth seeing wide swings month to month 21

Comparable Sales Growth - Northeast Distributors

Northeast4Q expected to improve slightly in the Northeast

8% 8%8%

Comparable Sales Growth - Northeast Distributors

SouthGrowth up significantly in 3Q 23

Comparable Sales Growth - South Distributors

South4Q expected to improve nearly 1 point relative to 3Q

Comparable Sales Growth - South Distributors

MidwestMidwest distributor growth accelerated in 3Q following slow down through July

Comparable Sales Growth - Midwest Distributors

Midwest4Q growth expected to be similar to 3Q 26

6% 6% 7%

2%3% 3%

Comparable Sales Growth - Midwest Distributors

WestAugust up 10-15%, September down nearly 10% 27

Comparable Sales Growth - West Distributors

West4Q expected to slow a bit further

10%10%

Comparable Sales Growth - West Distributors

SALES & FORECASTS29

Total Forecasts2016 forecasts were reduced nearly 1 point but initial 2017 forecasts 2 points higher than 2016 30

5.1%5.5%

6.3%5.9%

6.7%7.1%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 3Q16

Actual 2016E 2017E

Annual Sales Growth Forecasts - Distributors

Pro ForecastsPro categories now expected to be up nearly 3% in 2016 and initial 2017 forecasts up 4% 31

5.9%5.6%

4.6%4.2%

5.4% 5.2%

6.6% 6.6%

2.9% 2.8%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 3Q16

Actual 2016E 2017E

Consumer ForecastsDistributors still forecasting solid Consumer growth (up nearly 5%) in 2016 and initial 2017

forecasts show sales increasing 8%32

8.3% 8.3%7.8%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 3Q16

Actual 2016E 2017E

Industry GrowthDistributors forecasting mowers to see the highest growth in 2016 33

Individual categories may not add to total industry due to rounding and categories not included in the above chartSource: OPEESA Executive Trends Index

3.2%3.5%

Total 2016E Pro mowers Consumermowers

Engines HandheldEquip.

Parts/Repair Other

2016 Industry Forecast - by Category

INVENTORY, PRICE, & HEADCOUNT34

InventoryDistributor inventory levels moved higher last 90 days

4.1%3.6%

Inventory Position Year/Year - Distributors

InventoryDistributor inventory levels exited 3Q higher than expected 36

Higher than expected In-line with expectations Lower than expected

Inventory vs Expectations - Distributors

Snow Season2016/2017 snow season expected to improve versus 2015/2016 37

-4%-4%

3% 3%3%

Total Pro Con

What is your initial forecast for the 2016/2017 snow selling season?Final 2016 2016/2017E

Snow SeasonSnow inventory levels are elevated for 51% of distributors 38

0% 0%0%

Extremely high Slightly high In-line Slightly low Extremely low

Snow Inventory Level at Retail

PriceDistributors saw OPE manufacturers increase price by 1.5% in 2016 (weighted average) 39

0% 0%0%

None 0-1% 1-2% 2-3% 3-4% 4-5% 5%+

2016 Manufactures Price Increase Forecast

PriceDistributors expect manufacturers to increase price by 1.5% in 2017 (weighted average) 40

15% 15%

12% 12%

0% 0%0%

None 0-1% 1-2% 2-3% 3-4% 4-5% 5%+

2017 Manufactures Price Increase Forecast

Headcount31% of OPEESA distributor respondents plan to increase headcount in the near-term

Net increase No change Net decrease

Headcount Change in Next 90 Days

MANUFACTURER SURVEY42

Product Categories“Other” categories represents the largest product group for OPEESA Manufacturers 43

Mowers Engines Handheld Equip. Parts/Repair Other

Category Exposure - Manufacturers

Customer ExposurePro 59%, Consumer 41% 44

Source: OPEESA Executive Trends IndexIndividual categories may not add to total industry due to rounding and categories not included in the above chart

Consumer, 41%

Professional, 59%

Customer Exposure - Manufacturers

NEAR-TERM SALES45

All Manufacturers3Q sales increased 2% for manufacturers 46

Comparable Sales Growth - Manufacturers

All ManufacturersMonthly sales growth slowing last 3-4 months 47

Comparable Sales Growth - Manufacturers

Sales vs. ExpectationsManufacturer sales growth mostly in-line with expectations in 3Q

Much better thanexpectations

Better thanexpectations

In-line withexpectations

Worse thanexpectations

Much worse thanexpectations

3Q16 Sales vs Expectations - Manufacturers

Weather ImpactManufacturers saw a 0.9 point negative impact from weather in 3Q (weighted average)

last year

No impact – weather similar versus last year

last year

Please estimate the impact of weather on your sales growth during 3Q16.

last year

No impact – similar versus last year

last year

Please estimate the impact of U.S. Headlines on your sales growth during 3Q16.

U.S. Headline ImpactManufacturers saw a 0.9 point negative impact from U.S. Headlines in 3Q (weighted average)

4Q Estimates36% of manufacturers lowered 4Q sales growth targets last 90 days 51

Raised forecastmeainingfully

Lowered forecastmeainingfully

Have you raised or lowered 4Q sales growth expectations the last 90 days?

Pro ManufacturersPro sales growth pretty flat last 4 months 52

Comparable Sales Growth - Manufacturers (Pro)

Pro ManufacturersPro sales growth expected to decrease 1% in 4Q

7% 7% 7%

7% 7% 7%6%

-1%-2%

Consumer ManufacturersConsumer sales higher in 3Q vs 2Q

Comparable Sales Growth - Manufacturers (Consumer)

Consumer ManufacturersConsumer sales growth expected to slow in 4Q

SALES & FORECASTS56

ForecastsManufacturers now expecting 2016 full year growth up 4% and initial 2017 forecasts show

sales increasing by 3%57

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

Annual Sales Growth Forecasts - Manufacturers

Forecasts36% of manufacturers lowered 2016 growth forecasts last 90 days 58

Raised our forecastmeaningfully

Raised our forecastmodestly

Unchanged Lowered our forecastmodestly

Lowered our forecastmeaningfully

Changed 2016 Forecasts? - Manufacturers

Forecasts29% of manufacturers lowered 2017 growth forecasts last 90 days

Raised our forecastmeaningfully

Raised our forecastmodestly

Unchanged Lowered our forecastmodestly

Lowered our forecastmeaningfully

Have you raised or lowered your 2017 sales growth expectations over the last 90 days?

Forecasts2016 sales growth forecasts remained similar over the last 90 days and initial 2017 forecasts

show sales increasing by 3%+60

4% 4%3%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 3Q16

Actual 2016E 2017E

Annual Sales Growth Forecasts - Manufacturers

Pro ForecastsPro categories expected to increase 2% in 2016 and initial 2017 forecasts show sales increasing by

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

Consumer ForecastsConsumer categories expected to increase 8% in 2016 and initial 2017 forecasts show sales

increasing by 4%62

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

Industry GrowthManufacturers forecasting total OPE industry flat in 2016 and initial 2017 forecasts show sales

increasing by 3% year/year63

Source: OPEESA Executive Trends IndexIndividual categories may not add to total industry due to rounding and categories not included in the above chart

4% 4%3%

1%3%3%

Total 2016E Pro mowers Consumermowers

Engines HandheldEquip.

Parts/Repair Other Equip.

What is your current INDUSTRY forecast for 2016 growth by end market (excluding acquisitions)?

Final 2016 2017E

INVENTORY, HEADCOUNT, & COSTS64

InventoryManufacturers’ dealer inventory positions up nearly 3% exiting 3Q 65

3%4% 3%

Dealer Inventory Year/Year - Manufacturers

Inventory31% of respondents saw dealer inventory higher than expected exiting 3Q due to soft sales 66

Higher than expected dueto bullish forecasts

Higher than expected dueto soft sales

In-line with expectations Lower than expected

Dealer Inventory vs Expectations - Manufacturers

Inventory31% of manufacturers estimate their dealers are heavy on inventory

27%30%

31% 31%

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Dealer Inventory Above Expectations by Quarter - Manufacturers

Snow Season25% of manufacturers suggest snow inventory is higher than expected 68

0% 0%0%

Extremely high Slightly high In-line Slightly low Extremely low

Snow Inventory at Retail

HeadcountAlmost 30% of manufacturers plan to increase headcount next 90 days

Net increase No change Net decrease

Headcount Next 90 Days - Manufacturers

Labor Situation50% of manufacturers estimate labor situations have improved since last year 70

Modestly better No change Modestly tighter

Estimate the landscape/contractor market's current labor situation vs this time last year.

Input CostsManufacturers forecasting minimal cost inflation in 2017

1.1%1.2%

2013 2014 2015 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Actual 2016E 2017E

Cost Inflation Year/Year - Manufacturers

Please look for the next OPEESA survey in January

OPEESA Executive trends Index€¦ · opeesa executive trends index o utdoor p ower e quipment and...

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