Post on 18-Feb-2016
description
Oklahoma State University
Wheat, Corn, & SorghumSituation and Outlook
Bill Burton
Corn production areaCorn production area
Soybean production areaSoybean production area
HRW wheat production areaHRW wheat production area
SRW wheat production areaSRW wheat production area
Talking Points
• Planted wheat, corn & bean acres.
• Tight U.S. and world grain stocks.
• U.S. next exportable wheat crop to be harvested.
KCBT Monthly Wheat
CBT Corn Monthly
Aug
CBT Soybean Monthly
Dec
CBT Corn Monthly
wheat, corn and bean seed acres
Million Acres
2008/09 2007/08 10-yr avg
all wheat 63.6 60.4 59.3
beans 74.8 68.5 72.8
corn 86.0 93.6 80.5
32.5HRW10.7SRW13.6HRS
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use
Beginning stocksProduction Supply, TotalExports
Use, TotalEnding StocksAvg. farm price
4502,3002,650
9502,100
550$6.30
4562,0672,6131,2252,371
242$6.15
Million Bushels
Kim’s08/09
USDA07/08
World Wheat Situation (MMT)Beginning
Stocks Production UseEnding Stocks
05 / 06 150.76 621.30 624.37 147.69
06 / 07 147.69 592.96 615.80 124.85
07 / 08 124.85 606.69 619.06 112.48
KCBT July ‘08 $8.64-.70
$7.94
U.S. Corn Supply and Use
Beginning stocksProduction Supply, TotalExports
Use, TotalEnding StocksAvg. farm price
1,27512,360
13, 6502,100
12,700950
$5.00
1,30413,07414,3932,45013,101,283$4.30
Million Bushels
Kim’s08/09
USDA07/08
World Corn Situation (MMT)Beginning
Stocks Production UseEnding Stocks
05 / 06 132.14 696.86 703.89 125.11
06 / 07 125.11 705.34 722.26 108.20
07 / 08 108.20 772.17 777.39 102.97
CBT Dec Corn ‘08 $6.19-0.10$6.11
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
Beginning stocksProduction Supply, TotalExports
Use, TotalEnding StocksAvg. farm price
1603,1003,2601,0003,000
260$10.00
5742,5853,1691,0753,009
160$10.40
Million Bushels
Kim’s08/09
USDA07/08
World Soybean Situation (MMT)Beginning
Stocks Production UseEnding Stocks
05 / 06 47.50 220.54 215.25 52.88
06 / 07 52.88 237.25 224.90 63.26
07 / 08 63.26 219.99 233.83 49.31
CBT Nov Beans ‘08$12.00
-1.00$11.00
Talking Points
Weather most critical price factor
World must have 2008 wheat, corn & beans.
Even if relatively large foreign wheat crop, demand will be there for 2008 harvested U.S. HRW wheat, corn & beans.
CME Feeder Cattle Monthly
9/11
NYMEX Crude Oil Monthly
NYBOT Dollar Index ’88 – ‘08