Post on 29-Dec-2015
NSF Hurricane Research
National Science Foundation
Pamela StephensGeosciences Directorate
NSF Directorate Roles in Hurricane Research
Geosciences (GEO) – Study the hurricane as a phenomenon from formation to dissipation. Conduct research on the prediction of hurricane behavior/evolution and on the impacts of hurricanes on the built and natural environments.
Current award areas include:
• seasonal prediction
• relation to climate change
• cyclogenesis
• intensity changes
• sediment transport
• air-sea fluxes
Internal Vortex Dynamics In collaboration with NOAA’s IFEX, NSF sponsored the
RAINEX field campaign in 2005. Early results indicate that the “moat” region between the original and replacement eyewalls becomes dynamically similar to the eye, and that targeting observations in this area may lead to improvements in forecasting hurricane intensity.
NCAR Hurricane Modeling Priorities
No delay of intensification with EnKF IC
Advanced computation of initial conditions (IC) Ensemble Kalman Filter 4D-VAR
Grid-spacing of 1 km in real time
Ocean and wave coupling Simulation of fine-scale
dynamics at landfallImbalance with GFDL IC lasts 2 days
Dean 2007
GFDL IC
Numerical Weather Prediction
NWP and New Observation Capability
The COSMIC satellites were launched on April 14th, 2006 and have provided nearly 1 million atmospheric occultation measurements. Early results show that increasing thermodynamic data in data-sparse regions may have an effect on model performance in relation to forecasting tropical cyclogenesis and storm tracks.
ATLANTIC OCEAN
~58,000 ft50 - 100 mb
Zero-pressureor
Super PressureBalloon
Gondola(20 to 50 sonde capacity)
SondesCommanded for Release
NORTHAMERICA
EUROPE
IRIDIUMLEO Satellite
System ConceptBalloon Based Dropsondes
Cost-effective dropsonde observations of wind, temperature, and humidity to fill critical gaps in coverage over oceanic and remote artic and continental regions over days to weeks.
THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)/ Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008
August-September 2008
Initial motivation from Asian and North American Regional Committees with significant EU participation and financial contribution
Asian societal impacts from heavy rainfall, typhoon and extratropical transition (ET) with research interests in:
– tropical cyclone formation– intensification – Motion/track– decay and/or ET
North American societal impacts from downstream effects of Asian and Western Pacific high-impact weather with research interests in
– tropical and midlatitude predictability – tropical cyclones,
» ET – intense extratropical cyclogenesis
Navy interest in Tropical cyclone formation, intensification, and structure change (TCS-08)
Example supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa
THORPEX-PARC
Tropical cyclone core region
Tropical cyclone-midlatitude interface region
Midlatitude impact region
THORPEX-PARC
Downstream impacts may be forced by:• Advection of vorticity by the divergent wind associated with remaining deep convection in the tropical cyclone core region• Diabatic Rossby wave generation due to latent-heat release in an area of strong warm frontogenesis in the tropical cyclone midlatitude interface region• Import of energy into the midlatitudes via interaction between the tropical cyclone outflow and the midlatitude jet in the midlatitude impact region.
Climate Research Priorities
There has been much discussion recently about the trend in hurricane intensity in a warming climate. With questions about the reliability of past hurricane records, NSF-sponsored researchers along with NCDC created a homogeneous global record of hurricane intensity through use of existing satellite data.
NSF Directorate Roles in Hurricane Research
Social, Behavioral & Economic Studies (SBE) – Research focuses on the four stages of disaster management: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery.
Engineering (ENG) – Provide research into hazard response and mitigation, and how hurricanes affect infrastructure - including buildings, levees and electrical and communication systems.
New Solicitation from SBE, ENG, and NOAA
Communicating Hurricane Information
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