Lecture L13 THE POWER OF SOFTWARE

The Software Crisis

Software

As computers became more powerful and more common, a new problem surfaced: software !

Development of computers was a hardware problem !

Software or programs did not get the same attention !

Operating systems were primitive and programming was done at a very low level

The Software Crisis

“[The major cause of the software crisis is] that the machines have become several orders of magnitude more powerful!” -Edsger Dijkstra, The Humble Programmer

Source:  Software_crisis

Software Engineering was not a established field !

Became known as The Software Crisis

Operating Systems

IBM developed OS/360 for System 360 !

DEC developed VMS for VAX !

Unix was grew out individual efforts as response to Multix !

System V, BSD, Solaris !

Minix was an academic effort, Linux grew out of frustration with Minix licence

Programming Languages!

FORTRAN!Mathematical Formula Translation System Released in 1957 !

Higher level language that became breakthrough in writing software !

Created by John Backus of IBM !

Came on 2.000 punched cards Other languages followed: COBOL, Algol

May 25, 1961

Status:!!

Mainframe era, mini computer early days !

Transistor era, integrated circuits just invented !

Programming languages new

“The  space  program  badly  needed  the  things  the  integrated  circuit  could  provide.”  

-­‐  Jack  St.  Clair  Kilby

Semiconductor Industry is Born

Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore founded Intel Semiconductor company !

Initial focus was on memory chips !

There was still enormous potential market for calculations !

The vision of Charles Babbage was still not realised but the mainframe market met the needs of governments and large organisations

The MicroprocessorIntel introduced the first microprocessor 4004 in 1971 !

8008 in 1972, 8080 in 1974 and 8088 in 1979 !

The beginning of the PC

The Microprocessor

Intel was really reluctant to go into the microchip business !

No market existed No demand at the time !

Intel created 4004 for another company They would not market chips, but built them when ordered

The Calculator

The Calculator

Advances in technology introduced the desktop calculator !

The market grew fast With advances, the calculators became more powerful and smaller !

Pocket calculators Became widespread in the 70s !

Replaced the slide rule after 374 years

Calculator Wars

Many companies start to make Calculators Casio, Sharp, Canon, HP, MITS and more !

In Europe, Aristo, Denner & Pape, a slide rule manufacturer since 1872, also entered the market in 1972 !

Price dropped fast: $400 in 1972, $200, $100 and $50 in 1974 !

Companies like MITS need to find new ways of revenues

Think about this!

All mini-computer companies hadwhat it would take to go into smallscale products – they even hadpeople proposing the idea, but theydid not!

The Personal Computer

The Personal Computer

MITS marketed Altair in 1975 Came with Intel 8080 !

Users needed to assemble the machine themselves No keyboard, no screen, no printer 256 byte of RAM, programmed with switches !

Included BASIC interpreter from Microsoft Written by Bill Gates and Paul Allen Cost of $397 appealed to computer enthusiasts

Microsoft is BornBill Gates and Paul Allen!!

Wrote a BASIC interpreter for the Altair !

Founded a company they called Micro-Soft

Enter Apple

Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak!!

Show the Apple I in the Palo Alto

Homebrew Computer Club in 1976 !

Apple II was marketed 1977 and became a huge success - “Apple growth” !

Hewlett-Packard had turn Wozniak down – no market

“The  Personal  Computer  will  fall  flat  on  its  face  in  business.”  

-­‐  Ken  Olsen

Computer Companies

Existing computer companies were not interested in PCs !

DEC, HP, IBM, and Control Data did not see a business model HP rejected a proposal from Steve Wozniak DEC rejected a proposal from David Ahl !

Support for machines like this was considered impossible !

Consequence: The development of the PC had to begin with hobbyists

Think About This!

The Liquid Network

The Software IndustryFirst applications were non-serious !

Soon business applications started to emerge !

VisiCalc was the “killer-app” 20% of computer sales was due to this program !

Other business apps appeared: Ledgers, payrolls, inventory, etc. !

Disruptive technology

Killer Apps

Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston Created VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet The spreadsheet created a new market !

People bought the hardware to run the software

Q4IBM successfully entered the PC market – according to RPV theory this would be difficult. How did they do this?

IBM PC

IBM decided to enter the PC revolution !

The company was loosing market share, competition was growing !

Project “Chess”!Bill Lowe was given one year to create a Personal Computer – “Acorn” !

Lowe and his team – “Dirty Dozen”, went to work in Boca Raton, FL !

Looked for parts outside of the company

The War of the OS

IBM needed an Operating System !

Most popular system was Digital Research CP/M, created by Gary Kildall !

Microsoft was providing programming languagesand suggested that IBM make a deal with DR

Robert X. Cringely PBS documentary

The Birth of the Microsoft DOS

The War of the OS

IBM decided on PC-DOS from Microsoft which bought the OS from another company !

Negotiated revenue sharing with IBM In the 80s, DOS had 90% of the OS market

PC-DOS

Small system Came on a floppy

IBM PC

The IBM PC was introduced 12. August 1981 in New York !

4.7 MHz Intel 8088, 16 kb RAM,

DOS 1.0 for $1.565

Enter the Clones

Enter the Clones

IBM released all the specification of the machine Open system !

This allowed new entrants to create IBM compatible machines Compac was one of them

Enter the Clones

IBM controlled the market for a few years !

They rationalised their product lines - deliberately restricted performance of lower-priced models in order to prevent them from cannibalising higher-priced models !

The Compac passed them in 1986 with the Intel 386 machines !

The PC market took off !

IBM started to loose market share

PC Compatible Machines Ruled

Early 80s IBM PC became the standard hardware !

MS-DOS became the industry standard OS !

Command Line Interface – CLI Text User Interfaces – TUI

Key Trend

Focus in on hardware, thesoftware is good-enough

Adoption Life Cycle

Still in the early stages – technology is the focus

“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”

- Alan Key

The Demo in 1968

The Demo 1968

The Demo in 1968

Doug Engelbart at the Augmentation Research Centre in Melno Park !

Demonstrated the future of computing

Features

A pointing device – the Mouse Hypertext, graphical user interface

Dynamic file linking !

Shared-screen collaboration involving two persons at different sites communicating over a network with audio and video interface

Xerox Parc

Xerox Parc

Alto Computer 1972

Xerox created a lab in 1970 !

Palo Alto Research Park – PARC !

PARC was a place for visionaries !

The Alto computer system had Graphical User Interface – GUI and a mouse as an input !

Desktop metaphor with Files and folders

Then Steve came on a visit

Graphical User Interfaces – GUI

Steve Jobs visited Xerox PARC 1979 Negotiated at deal with Xerox !

They showed him: Object Oriented Programming!Computer networks!Graphical User Interface!!

Apple started to work on this vision The Pirate Years

RPV TheoryXerox had just build theOS of the future but theydid nothing with it

Graphical User Interfaces – GUIDesktop metaphor

Point,   Click, Drag

Files,  foldersIcons

Windows,  scroll  bars

Menus

Graphical  fonts Clipboard,  cut  and  paste,  undo

Point,  activate,  select

Apple Lisa

First commercial computer with a GUI Introduced in January 1983 Cost $9.995!Motorola 68000 CPU at a 5 MHz clock rate and had 1MB RAM !

Featured cooperative (non-preemptive) multi-tasking and virtual memory !

Apple LisaFirst commercial computer with a GUI Introduced in January 1983 Cost $9.995!!

Impact: Business failure Too expensive Too slow !

!

Adjacent Possible

Technology wasn’t there yet

Macintosh

In 1984, Apple launched Macintosh Cost $1.995!!

Graphical User Interface !

This set the standard for Operating Systems !

Specification: 128 KB of RAM Screen was a 9-inch, 512x342 pixel monochrome display

Macintosh

Acceptance was slow The Mac was underpowered The GUI required memory and power !

Writing Software was difficult !

Gained popularity in education and with graphical designers – desktop publishers !

Not so popular in the traditional business sector Microsoft provided applications (office apps)

Others Join the GameMicrosoft launched Windows 1.01 in 1985 !

Gates and Microsoft believed Graphical User Interfaces were the future !

Regarded Front-end to DOS !

Other players IBM TopView, DR GEM !

Impact Software companies ignored Windows The business sector was not ready

DOS was in Crisis

By 1985 Microsoft had released DOS 3 !

But frustration increased

DOS was in Crisis

Single task system – you can only run one program at the time !

The 640 KB memory barrier TSR – Terminate and Stay Resident became popular but was causing problems !

Users were looking for multitasking !

Run more than one program at a time !

More advanced operating system was needed

Windows 3.0Windows finally became usable Released May 1990 !

Better use of memory Multitasking Used the 286 and 386 hardware better Support for CD-ROM Solitaire !

Impact: First GUI used by the PC market The end of DOS, finally

Windows 95

KEY TREND

Computers become consumer devices

Windows 95

Microsoft turned to consumers Windows 95 was targeted at the consumer market Support for the Internet Internet Explorer Friendlier user interfaces !

Impact Released with great fanfare Came to dominate the OS market The OS become more important than the hardware

Operating System for Consumers

Operating Systems Today

Ubuntu

Mac  OS  X  

Windows

More chocies, less important

Think about this!

Computers become commoditized – brands are notimportant anymore

Lessons

Lessons

▪ Shift from hardware to software ▪ None  of  the  minicomputer  makers  became  a  significant  factor  in  the  desktop  personal  computer  market  

▪ The  PC  was  disruptive  technology  ▪ The  minicomputer  users  were  not  buying  PCs  –  yet  ▪ This  created  a  new  set  of  entrants:  Apple,  Tandy,  Commodore,  and  IBM

Lessons

▪ In  the  late  1980s  the  performance  of  PCs  met  the  needs  of  minicomputer  users  

▪ This  severely  wounded  minicomputer  makers  –  many  of  them  failed  

▪ At  same  time  IBM  succeeded  in  entering  the  PC  market  –  how?  

▪ It  created  an  autonomous  organization  in  Florida  –  far  away  from  it’s  New  York  headquarters  

▪ They  created  the  PC  market  ▪ Then  headquarters  took  control  and  lost  control  to  the  Clones

Lessons

▪ Xerox mangement did not enter the computer market

▪ PARC members tried to show management – but they “just didn’t get it”

▪ Xerox is in the copying documents business – their customers were not asking for computer systems

▪ Visionary Computers did not fit their resources, processes and values – RPV theory

Lessons

▪ Doug Englebart envisioned the future of computers

▪ Xerox PARC built the visionary computer – but did not pursue it

▪ Early enthusiast like Ed Roberts of MITS and others did not get rich of computers and software

▪ Visionaries like Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston invented VisiCalc – did not make much money

Lessons

▪ Bill Gates saw the potential of software and started Microsoft

▪ Took the opportunity with MITS ▪ Focused on software ▪ Gary Kildall invented the C/PM system but

Microsoft bought similar OS and succeeded ▪ Wrote software for Apple and later Macintosh ▪ You don’t have to have superior products to win ▪ You don’t have to invent technology – just use it

Lessons

▪ Apple and Steve Jobs saw the potential of computers and then GUIs

▪ GUI were slow to appear ▪ Infrastructure product - needs software and users ▪ Stretched the hardware at the time ▪ Disruptive with new market – consumers ▪ Apple Lisa failed – lacking in performance ▪ The Macintosh started slowly and found some

niche market in Desktop Publishing and schools

Lessons

▪ Windows 95 was marketed to the consumer ▪ First mass market of Operating Systems – The Internet helped

▪ Today we have three major Operating Systems – Linux (Unix based) – MacOS (Unix based) – Windows

Q7

What is the future of Personal Computers?

PC Evolution

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Hardware  era  PC,  Mac

Software  OS  era  Windows,  Office,  MacOS

Internet  Hardware  Connects

IBM  PC Microsoft

Apple

2010

Software  web  era  Web  2.0,  Social

2015

Internet  of  things

20 petaflops, or a quadrillion calculations per second

Miniature Computers

Small devices that have computer power Wireless capabilities Dedicated devices Enough computer power for limited functionality !

Examples RFID UAV – Unmanned Arial Vehicles Internet of things Siftables

David Merrill demos Stiftables

Ted video

The Future of the PC

How long will the Hard Disk Drive last? Solid state memory is getting bigger Terabit Flash Memory Computer architecture will change More and more devices are using Flash memory Driving prices down

Tablets

Wearables, flyable, drivable, scannable…

The Network is the Comptuer

The Internet cloud !

More programs and data is stored on network servers !

The Personal Computer becomes one of the form factors to access the network !

Examples Amazon API Google Apps Facework Platform API

Tom Watson was wrong – there is not room for five computers.It’s only one

What about Moore’s Law

Shift to multicore started in 2005 – new dimension

Move to cloud-core

What about Moore’s Law

$1,279-­‐per-­‐hour,  30,000-­‐core   cluster  built  on  Amazon  EC2  cloud

What about Moore’s Law

How will we interact with computers in the future? !

Assume that the desktop metaphor with mouse and desktop and files – is dead

MISSION: FIND OUT BEFORE NEXT CLASS