New Technology Lecture L13 The Power of Software
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Transcript of New Technology Lecture L13 The Power of Software
Lecture L13 THE POWER OF SOFTWARE
The Software Crisis
Software
As computers became more powerful and more common, a new problem surfaced: software !
Development of computers was a hardware problem !
Software or programs did not get the same attention !
Operating systems were primitive and programming was done at a very low level
The Software Crisis
“[The major cause of the software crisis is] that the machines have become several orders of magnitude more powerful!” -Edsger Dijkstra, The Humble Programmer
Source: Software_crisis
Software Engineering was not a established field !
Became known as The Software Crisis
Operating Systems
IBM developed OS/360 for System 360 !
DEC developed VMS for VAX !
Unix was grew out individual efforts as response to Multix !
System V, BSD, Solaris !
Minix was an academic effort, Linux grew out of frustration with Minix licence
Programming Languages!
FORTRAN!Mathematical Formula Translation System Released in 1957 !
Higher level language that became breakthrough in writing software !
Created by John Backus of IBM !
Came on 2.000 punched cards Other languages followed: COBOL, Algol
May 25, 1961
Status:!!
Mainframe era, mini computer early days !
Transistor era, integrated circuits just invented !
Programming languages new
“The space program badly needed the things the integrated circuit could provide.”
-‐ Jack St. Clair Kilby
Semiconductor Industry is Born
Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore founded Intel Semiconductor company !
Initial focus was on memory chips !
There was still enormous potential market for calculations !
The vision of Charles Babbage was still not realised but the mainframe market met the needs of governments and large organisations
The MicroprocessorIntel introduced the first microprocessor 4004 in 1971 !
8008 in 1972, 8080 in 1974 and 8088 in 1979 !
The beginning of the PC
The Microprocessor
Intel was really reluctant to go into the microchip business !
No market existed No demand at the time !
Intel created 4004 for another company They would not market chips, but built them when ordered
The Calculator
The Calculator
Advances in technology introduced the desktop calculator !
The market grew fast With advances, the calculators became more powerful and smaller !
Pocket calculators Became widespread in the 70s !
Replaced the slide rule after 374 years
Calculator Wars
Many companies start to make Calculators Casio, Sharp, Canon, HP, MITS and more !
In Europe, Aristo, Denner & Pape, a slide rule manufacturer since 1872, also entered the market in 1972 !
Price dropped fast: $400 in 1972, $200, $100 and $50 in 1974 !
Companies like MITS need to find new ways of revenues
Think about this!
All mini-computer companies hadwhat it would take to go into smallscale products – they even hadpeople proposing the idea, but theydid not!
The Personal Computer
The Personal Computer
MITS marketed Altair in 1975 Came with Intel 8080 !
Users needed to assemble the machine themselves No keyboard, no screen, no printer 256 byte of RAM, programmed with switches !
Included BASIC interpreter from Microsoft Written by Bill Gates and Paul Allen Cost of $397 appealed to computer enthusiasts
Microsoft is BornBill Gates and Paul Allen!!
Wrote a BASIC interpreter for the Altair !
Founded a company they called Micro-Soft
Enter Apple
Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak!!
Show the Apple I in the Palo Alto
Homebrew Computer Club in 1976 !
Apple II was marketed 1977 and became a huge success - “Apple growth” !
Hewlett-Packard had turn Wozniak down – no market
“The Personal Computer will fall flat on its face in business.”
-‐ Ken Olsen
Computer Companies
Existing computer companies were not interested in PCs !
DEC, HP, IBM, and Control Data did not see a business model HP rejected a proposal from Steve Wozniak DEC rejected a proposal from David Ahl !
Support for machines like this was considered impossible !
Consequence: The development of the PC had to begin with hobbyists
Think About This!
The Liquid Network
The Software IndustryFirst applications were non-serious !
Soon business applications started to emerge !
VisiCalc was the “killer-app” 20% of computer sales was due to this program !
Other business apps appeared: Ledgers, payrolls, inventory, etc. !
Disruptive technology
Killer Apps
Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston Created VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet The spreadsheet created a new market !
People bought the hardware to run the software
Q4IBM successfully entered the PC market – according to RPV theory this would be difficult. How did they do this?
IBM PC
IBM decided to enter the PC revolution !
The company was loosing market share, competition was growing !
Project “Chess”!Bill Lowe was given one year to create a Personal Computer – “Acorn” !
Lowe and his team – “Dirty Dozen”, went to work in Boca Raton, FL !
Looked for parts outside of the company
The War of the OS
IBM needed an Operating System !
Most popular system was Digital Research CP/M, created by Gary Kildall !
Microsoft was providing programming languagesand suggested that IBM make a deal with DR
Robert X. Cringely PBS documentary
The Birth of the Microsoft DOS
The War of the OS
IBM decided on PC-DOS from Microsoft which bought the OS from another company !
Negotiated revenue sharing with IBM In the 80s, DOS had 90% of the OS market
PC-DOS
Small system Came on a floppy
IBM PC
The IBM PC was introduced 12. August 1981 in New York !
4.7 MHz Intel 8088, 16 kb RAM,
DOS 1.0 for $1.565
Enter the Clones
Enter the Clones
IBM released all the specification of the machine Open system !
This allowed new entrants to create IBM compatible machines Compac was one of them
Enter the Clones
IBM controlled the market for a few years !
They rationalised their product lines - deliberately restricted performance of lower-priced models in order to prevent them from cannibalising higher-priced models !
The Compac passed them in 1986 with the Intel 386 machines !
The PC market took off !
IBM started to loose market share
PC Compatible Machines Ruled
Early 80s IBM PC became the standard hardware !
MS-DOS became the industry standard OS !
Command Line Interface – CLI Text User Interfaces – TUI
Key Trend
Focus in on hardware, thesoftware is good-enough
Adoption Life Cycle
Still in the early stages – technology is the focus
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
- Alan Key
The Demo in 1968
The Demo 1968
The Demo in 1968
Doug Engelbart at the Augmentation Research Centre in Melno Park !
Demonstrated the future of computing
Features
A pointing device – the Mouse Hypertext, graphical user interface
Dynamic file linking !
Shared-screen collaboration involving two persons at different sites communicating over a network with audio and video interface
Xerox Parc
Xerox Parc
Alto Computer 1972
Xerox created a lab in 1970 !
Palo Alto Research Park – PARC !
PARC was a place for visionaries !
The Alto computer system had Graphical User Interface – GUI and a mouse as an input !
Desktop metaphor with Files and folders
Then Steve came on a visit
Graphical User Interfaces – GUI
Steve Jobs visited Xerox PARC 1979 Negotiated at deal with Xerox !
They showed him: Object Oriented Programming!Computer networks!Graphical User Interface!!
Apple started to work on this vision The Pirate Years
RPV TheoryXerox had just build theOS of the future but theydid nothing with it
Graphical User Interfaces – GUIDesktop metaphor
Point, Click, Drag
Files, foldersIcons
Windows, scroll bars
Menus
Graphical fonts Clipboard, cut and paste, undo
Point, activate, select
Apple Lisa
First commercial computer with a GUI Introduced in January 1983 Cost $9.995!Motorola 68000 CPU at a 5 MHz clock rate and had 1MB RAM !
Featured cooperative (non-preemptive) multi-tasking and virtual memory !
Apple LisaFirst commercial computer with a GUI Introduced in January 1983 Cost $9.995!!
Impact: Business failure Too expensive Too slow !
!
Adjacent Possible
Technology wasn’t there yet
Macintosh
In 1984, Apple launched Macintosh Cost $1.995!!
Graphical User Interface !
This set the standard for Operating Systems !
Specification: 128 KB of RAM Screen was a 9-inch, 512x342 pixel monochrome display
Macintosh
Acceptance was slow The Mac was underpowered The GUI required memory and power !
Writing Software was difficult !
Gained popularity in education and with graphical designers – desktop publishers !
Not so popular in the traditional business sector Microsoft provided applications (office apps)
Others Join the GameMicrosoft launched Windows 1.01 in 1985 !
Gates and Microsoft believed Graphical User Interfaces were the future !
Regarded Front-end to DOS !
Other players IBM TopView, DR GEM !
Impact Software companies ignored Windows The business sector was not ready
DOS was in Crisis
By 1985 Microsoft had released DOS 3 !
But frustration increased
DOS was in Crisis
Single task system – you can only run one program at the time !
The 640 KB memory barrier TSR – Terminate and Stay Resident became popular but was causing problems !
Users were looking for multitasking !
Run more than one program at a time !
More advanced operating system was needed
Windows 3.0Windows finally became usable Released May 1990 !
Better use of memory Multitasking Used the 286 and 386 hardware better Support for CD-ROM Solitaire !
Impact: First GUI used by the PC market The end of DOS, finally
Windows 95
KEY TREND
Computers become consumer devices
Windows 95
Microsoft turned to consumers Windows 95 was targeted at the consumer market Support for the Internet Internet Explorer Friendlier user interfaces !
Impact Released with great fanfare Came to dominate the OS market The OS become more important than the hardware
Operating System for Consumers
Operating Systems Today
Ubuntu
Mac OS X
Windows
More chocies, less important
Think about this!
Computers become commoditized – brands are notimportant anymore
Lessons
Lessons
▪ Shift from hardware to software ▪ None of the minicomputer makers became a significant factor in the desktop personal computer market
▪ The PC was disruptive technology ▪ The minicomputer users were not buying PCs – yet ▪ This created a new set of entrants: Apple, Tandy, Commodore, and IBM
Lessons
▪ In the late 1980s the performance of PCs met the needs of minicomputer users
▪ This severely wounded minicomputer makers – many of them failed
▪ At same time IBM succeeded in entering the PC market – how?
▪ It created an autonomous organization in Florida – far away from it’s New York headquarters
▪ They created the PC market ▪ Then headquarters took control and lost control to the Clones
Lessons
▪ Xerox mangement did not enter the computer market
▪ PARC members tried to show management – but they “just didn’t get it”
▪ Xerox is in the copying documents business – their customers were not asking for computer systems
▪ Visionary Computers did not fit their resources, processes and values – RPV theory
Lessons
▪ Doug Englebart envisioned the future of computers
▪ Xerox PARC built the visionary computer – but did not pursue it
▪ Early enthusiast like Ed Roberts of MITS and others did not get rich of computers and software
▪ Visionaries like Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston invented VisiCalc – did not make much money
Lessons
▪ Bill Gates saw the potential of software and started Microsoft
▪ Took the opportunity with MITS ▪ Focused on software ▪ Gary Kildall invented the C/PM system but
Microsoft bought similar OS and succeeded ▪ Wrote software for Apple and later Macintosh ▪ You don’t have to have superior products to win ▪ You don’t have to invent technology – just use it
Lessons
▪ Apple and Steve Jobs saw the potential of computers and then GUIs
▪ GUI were slow to appear ▪ Infrastructure product - needs software and users ▪ Stretched the hardware at the time ▪ Disruptive with new market – consumers ▪ Apple Lisa failed – lacking in performance ▪ The Macintosh started slowly and found some
niche market in Desktop Publishing and schools
Lessons
▪ Windows 95 was marketed to the consumer ▪ First mass market of Operating Systems – The Internet helped
▪ Today we have three major Operating Systems – Linux (Unix based) – MacOS (Unix based) – Windows
Q7
What is the future of Personal Computers?
PC Evolution
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Hardware era PC, Mac
Software OS era Windows, Office, MacOS
Internet Hardware Connects
IBM PC Microsoft
Apple
2010
Software web era Web 2.0, Social
2015
Internet of things
20 petaflops, or a quadrillion calculations per second
Miniature Computers
Small devices that have computer power Wireless capabilities Dedicated devices Enough computer power for limited functionality !
Examples RFID UAV – Unmanned Arial Vehicles Internet of things Siftables
David Merrill demos Stiftables
Ted video
The Future of the PC
How long will the Hard Disk Drive last? Solid state memory is getting bigger Terabit Flash Memory Computer architecture will change More and more devices are using Flash memory Driving prices down
Tablets
Wearables, flyable, drivable, scannable…
The Network is the Comptuer
The Internet cloud !
More programs and data is stored on network servers !
The Personal Computer becomes one of the form factors to access the network !
Examples Amazon API Google Apps Facework Platform API
Tom Watson was wrong – there is not room for five computers.It’s only one
What about Moore’s Law
Shift to multicore started in 2005 – new dimension
Move to cloud-core
What about Moore’s Law
$1,279-‐per-‐hour, 30,000-‐core cluster built on Amazon EC2 cloud
What about Moore’s Law
How will we interact with computers in the future? !
Assume that the desktop metaphor with mouse and desktop and files – is dead
MISSION: FIND OUT BEFORE NEXT CLASS