NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF LABORPROJECTIONS SYSTEM

IndustryProjections

OccupationalProjections

PopulationProjections

Labor ForceProjections

Labor ForceParticipation

Rates

IndustryEmployment

Series

NationalProjections

Industry /Occupation

Matrix

OESSurvey

CommutationRatios

Change - & SEUF -

Factors

VitalStatistics

CensusData

= EndProduct

Population and Labor Force Projections for New Jersey:

2006 to 2025

Population Projections

0.85%

1.24%

0.47%

0.94%

0.45%

0.97%

2000-2006

2000-2006

2006-2016

2006-2016

• New Jersey’s 2006-2016 population growth will continue to lag behind the nation as a whole.

Rate of Population Growth: 1990-2016

1990-2000

1990-2000

Population Projections

0.49%

0.85%

0.47% 0.45%

0.58%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

An

nu

ali

zed

Ra

te

1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2006 2006-2016 2016-2025

Rate of NJ Population Growth: 1980-2025

New Jersey’s total population is projected to increase by 0.45% per annum, on average, from 2006 to 2016. The state’s rate of population growth will be 0.58% per annum between 2016 and 2025.

Components of Population Change:New Jersey, 2000 to 2025

250,800

435,900

370,700

1,000

-36,900

118,400

2000-2006

2006-2016

2016-2025

Natural Increment Net Migration

Population Projections

Population Projections

• Population aged 18-39 and 55+ will grow substantially.

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2000-2006 2006-2016

NJ Population Change by Age

Under 5

5-17

18-39

40-54

55-69

70+

Population ProjectionsA

ge

New Jersey Population by Age: 2006 and 2016

2006 2016

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

5-9

15-19

25-29

35-39

45-49

55-59

65-69

75-79

85+

0200400600 200 400 600(Population in thousands)

Population Projections

1.2%

5.4%

32.6% 33.3%

29.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

White Black Other 2+Races Hispanic

NJ Population Growth by Race: 2006-2016

Hispanics, Multiracial and Other Races are projected to grow fast.

Population Projections

1990 2006 2016 2025

Non-Hispanic 90.3% 84.4% 81.0% 77.7%

White 73.9% 62.8% 57.1% 52.0%

Black 12.9% 13.3% 13.2% 12.9%

Others 3.6% 7.4% 9.4% 11.2%

2+ Races (N.A.) 1.0% 1.3% 1.6%

Hispanic 9.7% 15.6% 19.0% 22.3%

Other Races and Hispanics will increase their shares of the state’s total resident population.

Population Projections

• New Jersey’s sex ratio is projected to increase gradually as male population grow slightly faster than their female counterpart.

93.5

94.3

95.5

96.0

97.0

93.0

94.0

95.0

96.0

97.0

1990 2000 2006 2016 2025

New Jersey Sex Ratio: 1990 - 2025

Labor Force Projections

16.5%5.2%

9.5%

11.9%

6.0%4.6%

3.7%5.4%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

1980-1990

1990-2006

2006-2016

2016-2025

PopulationLabor Force

Growth of Population and Labor Force: New Jersey, 1980 - 2025

New Jersey’s civilian labor force is projected to grow faster than its population from 2006 to 2016 but not after 2016.

Labor Force Projections

• The “older workers” (labor force aged 55 and older) will grow faster than their younger counterparts.

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2000-06 2006-16

NJ Labor Force Change by Age

16-24

25-39

40-54

55 & over

Labor Force Projections

2.2%

9.0%

32.5%

43.0%

27.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

White Black Other 2+Races Hispanic

NJ Labor Force Growth by Race: 2006-2016

Hispanics, Other Races and Multiracial labor forces are projected to grow fast.

In fact, the “other races” will account for 40% and 70% of the state’s total labor force growth in 2006-2016 and 2016-2025 periods, respectively.

Labor Force Projections

Hispanics will comprise the majority of the state’s labor force growth (70%) from 2006 to 2016. They will account for all the growth of New Jersey’s labor force between 2016 and 2025, as the no-Hispanic labor force is projected to decline somewhat.

Labor Force Projections

1990 2006 2016 2025

White 83.3% 77.6% 74.8% 72.1%

Black 12.9% 13.4% 13.8% 13.9%

Others 3.8% 8.0% 10.0% 12.2%

2+ Races (N.A.) 1.0% 1.4% 1.9%

Hispanic 9.1% 15.5% 18.6% 22.2%

Consequently, Other Races and Hispanics will increase their shares of the state’s total civilian labor force.

Thank You

Comments Welcomed

Prepared by:

New Jersey Department of Labor & Workforce Development

Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research

Contact: Sen-Yuan Wu (email: sywu@dol.state.nj.us tel. 609-292-0077)