Post on 15-Jan-2016
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NebojNebojšša Nakia NakiććenovienoviććInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx
Technische Universität WienTechnische Universität Wien xxnaki@iiasa.ac.atnaki@iiasa.ac.at
Sustainable Energy for All, UN, NYC – 19-20 September 2011Sustainable Energy for All, UN, NYC – 19-20 September 2011
Sustainable Energy for AllSustainable Energy for AllA Perspective from GEAA Perspective from GEA
UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
2030 Energy Goals
● Universal Access to Modern Energy
● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement
● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake-holders work together.
Energy transformation will bring multiple co-benefits for health, security, climate change
Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.orgTowards a more Sustainable Future
#4
Mapping Energy AccessFinal energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density
Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake-holders work together.
Energy transformation will bring multiple co-benefits for health, security, climate change
Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.orgTowards a more Sustainable Future
#6
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Microchip
Commercialaviation
TelevisionVacuum
tubeGasolineengine
Electricmotor
Steam engine
Nuclearenergy
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclearNuclear
Oil
Gas
Global Primary EnergyGlobal Primary Energy
#7
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Microchip
Commercialaviation
TelevisionVacuum
tubeGasolineengine
Electricmotor
Steam engine
Nuclearenergy
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclearNuclear
Oil
Gas
Global Primary EnergyGlobal Primary Energyno CCS, no Nuclear
Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)
#8
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclearNuclear
Oil
Gas
Global Primary EnergyGlobal Primary Energyno CCS, no Nuclear
Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
Oil phase-out (necessary)
Nuclear phase-out (choice)
#9
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclearNuclear
Oil
Gas
Global Primary EnergyGlobal Primary Energylim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN
Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
Oil phase-out (necessary)
Limited Intermittent REN
Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – “negative CO2”
Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS
Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake-holders work together.
Energy transformation will bring multiple co-benefits for health, security, climate change
Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.orgTowards a more Sustainable Future
#13
Co-Benefits of Energy Investments
#14
Co-Benefits of Energy Investments
UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
The Way Forward
● Global Political Commitment – the huge multiple benefits as drivers
● Country Level Action is Key – identifying what works best in each country
● Private Sector is Key Partner – enabling environments for investment
● Facilitating Decision Making – much analytic and data work needed
● Supporting Country Efforts – financial and capacity development huge needs
UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
Integrated Solutions
● Political – links to global debates (MDGs, UNFCCC, WTO, RIO + 20, etc.)
● Sectoral – links to policies in other sectors are fundamental
● Geography - urban, provincial, regional, national linkages are necessary
● People - education, information and incentives for lifestyle changes
● Implementation - strong institutions (national and international) and facilitating mechanisms