Neboj š a Naki ć enovi ć Technische Universität Wien xx
description
Transcript of Neboj š a Naki ć enovi ć Technische Universität Wien xx
NebojNebojšša Nakia NakiććenovienoviććTechnische Universität Wien Technische Universität Wien xx
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx
[email protected]@iiasa.ac.at
IIASA Energy Day in Poland, Systems Research InstituteIIASA Energy Day in Poland, Systems Research Institute
Polish Academy of Sciences, WarsawPolish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw – 10 June 2008– 10 June 2008
Energy Perspectives and Energy Perspectives and Climate ChangeClimate Change
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##22 20082008
Global Energy ChallengesGlobal Energy Challenges
Sustainable access to energy servicesSustainable access to energy services(a prerequisite for reaching MDGs)(a prerequisite for reaching MDGs)
Deep CODeep CO22 and other GHGs reductions and other GHGs reductions
Energy systems security and reliabilityEnergy systems security and reliability
Investment in RD&D and in diffusionInvestment in RD&D and in diffusion
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##33 20082008
World Primary EnergyWorld Primary Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1850 1900 1950 2000
Pri
ma
ry E
ne
rgy
(E
J)
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Renewable
NuclearMicrochip
Steammotor
Gasolinetube
CommercialNuclear
Television
aviation
engine
engineElectric
Vacuum
energy
s
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Global Mean Temperatures are RisingGlobal Mean Temperatures are Rising
100 0.0740.018
50 0.1280.026
Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,200
6, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,200
0
Period Rate
Years /decade
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##55 20082008
Night LightsNight Lights
2000
Source: After SRES, 2000Source: After SRES, 2000
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##66 20082008
Night LightsNight LightsIIASA A2r ScenarioIIASA A2r Scenario
SRES A2
2070
Source: After SRES, 2000Source: After SRES, 2000
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##77 20082008
Δ Δ TemperatureTemperature
2070
Source: TAR-WGI, 2001Source: TAR-WGI, 2001
2070
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##88 20082008
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
EJ
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Global Primary Energy – A2rGlobal Primary Energy – A2r
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##99 20082008
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
EJ
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Global Primary Energy – B1Global Primary Energy – B1
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
Long-Term Stabilization Profiles
A2A2
B1B1
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
Long-Term Stabilization Profiles
~$100/tCO~$100/tCO22
A2A2
B1B1
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
Long-Term Stabilization Profiles
<$25/tCO<$25/tCO22
~$100/tCO~$100/tCO22
The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global emissions have to go
down
peak in
10yrs
peak in
25yrs
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1414 20082008
Letter Horse Hay Agriculture Sunlight
Telegraph Steam Locomotive
Coal Coal mine Coal fields
Interntet, Mobile Phone
ICE Automobile
Gasoline Oil refinery Crude oil
Convergence Energy, Mobility
InformationHydrogen
Natural gas / fossils
SMR, decarbonization
Electrolysis
Sunlight
Wind
Uranium
1770s
1870s
1970s
2070s
Energy Services and Sources Through Time
Biomass
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1515 20082008
Technology LearningTechnology Learning Costs and Benefits Costs and Benefits
Future learning benefits
Level of present competitivenessLearning
costs
Cumulative investments $Sp
ecif
ic in
vest
men
t co
sts
($/k
W)
Cumulative MW experience
Time
Learning benefits
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1616 20082008
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
0 0.1 1 10 100 1,000
Cumulative expenditures, billion (1985) Yen
PV
cos
ts (
198
5) Y
en p
er W
1973: 30,000
y = 10 4.0 – 0.54x
R 2 = 0.989
1995: 640
Applied R&D InvestmentBasic R&D
1976: 16,300
1980: 4,900
1985: 1,200
Data source:Watanabe, 1995 &1997
Japan - PV Costs vs. ExpendituresJapan - PV Costs vs. Expenditures
GrGrübler, 2002übler, 2002
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
0 0.1 1 10 100 1,000
Cumulative expenditures, billion (1985) Yen
PV
cos
ts (
198
5) Y
en p
er W
1973: 30,000
y = 10 4.0 – 0.54x
R 2 = 0.989
1995: 640
Applied R&D InvestmentBasic R&D
1976: 16,300
1980: 4,900
1985: 1,200
Data Source: Watanabe, 1997 ~ $1 109
Cost reduction~ $100 109
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1717 20082008
Technology Learning in SRESTechnology Learning in SRES
100,00010,0001,000100101
Cumulative Installed Capacity [GW]
10,000
1,000
100
Inve
stm
ent
Cos
ts p
er k
W
in U
S$90
100,00010,0001,000100101
Cumulative Installed Capacity [GW]
10,000
1,000
100
Inve
stm
ent
Cos
ts p
er k
W
in U
S$90
Source: RiahiSource: Riahi
%
0
1
2
3
4
5
f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
EJ
solarwindhydrobiomassnucleargas.unconvgas.convoil.unconvoil.convcoal
%
0
1
2
3
4
5
f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
EJ
solarwindhydrobiomassnucleargas.unconvgas.convoil.unconvoil.convcoal
%
0
1
2
3
4
5
f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
EJ
solarwindhydrobiomassnucleargas.unconvgas.convoil.unconvoil.convcoal
%
0
1
2
3
4
5
f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
EJ
solarwindhydrobiomassnucleargas.unconvgas.convoil.unconvoil.convcoal
%
0
1
2
3
4
5
f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
EJ
solarwindhydrobiomassnucleargas.unconvgas.convoil.unconvoil.convcoal
%
0
1
2
3
4
5
f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
EJ
solarwindhydrobiomassnucleargas.unconvgas.convoil.unconvoil.convcoal
%
0
1
2
3
4
5
f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
EJ
solarwindhydrobiomassnucleargas.unconvgas.convoil.unconvoil.convcoal
%
0
1
2
3
4
5
f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
EJ
solarwindhydrobiomassnucleargas.unconvgas.convoil.unconvoil.convcoal
%
0
1
2
3
4
5
f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
EJ
solarwindhydrobiomassnucleargas.unconvgas.convoil.unconvoil.convcoal
%
0
1
2
3
4
5
f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
EJ
solarwindhydrobiomassnucleargas.unconvgas.convoil.unconvoil.convcoal
%
0
1
2
3
4
5
f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
EJ
solarwindhydrobiomassnucleargas.unconvgas.convoil.unconvoil.convcoal
earlier investmentsearlier investments
diversificationdiversification
Total Primary EnergyB2 baseline, f are hedging costs
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1919 20072007
Total Energy-related Investments(World, short & long-term)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Tri
llio
n U
S$
20
00
A2 B1 A2 B1
2000-21002000-2030
Long-termInvestment
Savings(~40 trillion)
“Upfront” Investments(~2 trillion)
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2020 20082008
Global Energy AssessmentGlobal Energy AssessmentTowards a more Sustainable FutureTowards a more Sustainable Future
• The The magnitudemagnitude of the change required is of the change required is hugehuge
• The challenge is to find a way forward The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses all the issues that addresses all the issues simultaneouslysimultaneously
• A paradigm shift is needed: energy end-A paradigm shift is needed: energy end-use efficiency, new renewables, use efficiency, new renewables, advanced nuclear and carbon capture advanced nuclear and carbon capture and storage.and storage.
Source: Johansson, 2005Source: Johansson, 2005
Some Research Areasfor future collaboration
(1) Integrated Assessment Framework:Modeling of long-term global and regional transitions
(2) Decision Making under Uncertainty
(3) Energy services: Understanding heterogeneity of energy consumers
(4) Global Energy Assessment (GEA)
IIASAIIASAInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Confronting the Challenges of Energy forConfronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: Sustainable Development:
The Role of Scientific and Technical AnalysisThe Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis
and its international partners present theand its international partners present the
www.www.GlobalEnergyAssessmentGlobalEnergyAssessment.org.org
GEA Knowledge Clusters
● Cluster I: Major Global Issues and Energy– assessment of the Challenges
● Cluster II: Energy Resources and Technological Options – assessment of the Components available to build future energy systems
● Cluster III: Possible Sustainable Futures– assessment of how to combine the Components to create Systems that
address the Challenges – Scenario development
● Cluster IV: Policies Advancing Energy for Sustainable Development
– assessment of the Policies needed to address the Challenges and realize the Systems
Organizations Supporting GEA
International OrganizationsUNDP UNEPUNIDOWorld BankIEA Country Governments/AgenciesAustriaBrazilItalyKoreaSwedenUSA
CorporationsPetrobrasTEPCO Industry groupsWECWBCSD
FoundationsUN FoundationHeinz Foundation
IIASAIIASAInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Confronting the Challenges of Energy forConfronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: Sustainable Development:
The Role of Scientific and Technical AnalysisThe Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis
and its international partners presentand its international partners present
www.www.GlobalEnergyAssessmentGlobalEnergyAssessment.org.org