Modeling the effects of climate change forecasts on...

Modeling the effects of climate change

forecasts on streamflow in the

Nooksack River basin

Susan Dickerson

Dr. Robert Mitchell

Photo: John Scurlock

Acknowledgements

Funding Provided By:

Whatcom County Flood Control Zone District

Alcoa Foundation

Assistance From:

Climate Change Technical Committee:

Matt Wiley & Austin Polebitski

Goal of Research

To predict the timing and magnitude of streamflow in the

Nooksack River basin under changing climate conditions

Background: The Nooksack River

Streamflow at North Cedarville, WA

Water Year 2009 (Oct 2008 – Sept 2009)

Approach

Predicted

climate

Predictions

Future Snowpack

Future Streamflow

Future Peak Flows

Hydrology model

Spatial

characteristics

of Nooksack

River basin

Methods: DHSVM

Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model

Pascal Storck

Methods: DHSVM Calibration

Photo: NRCS

Photo: USGS

Forecast scale of 100s km local station

Methods: Forecast Downscaling

CIG, 2010

Methods: Local Climate Change Forecasts

Each forecast incorporates local variability

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Monthly Mean Temperature, 1950-1999

Abbotsford

Methods: Local Climate Change Forecasts

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Monthly Mean Temperature, 1950-1999

Abbotsford

GISS_B1 2050 Forecast

Each forecast incorporates local variability AND future climate trends

January Mean Temperature

Temperature (C)

-10 -5 0 5

January Mean Temperature

Methods: Local Forecasts

median

Histogram Boxplot

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Monthly Mean Temperature - 2050

Abbotsford

GISS_B1

ECHAM_A2

IPSL_A2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Abbotsford

GISS_B1

ECHAM_A2

IPSL_A2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Total Monthly Precipitation - 2050

Abbotsford

GISS_B1

ECHAM_A2

IPSL_A2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Abbotsford

GISS_B1

ECHAM_A2

IPSL_A2

Approach

Predicted

climate

Predictions

Future Snowpack

Future Streamflow

Future Peak Flows

Hydrology model

Spatial

characteristics

of Nooksack

River basin

Results: Snow Water Equivalent1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - GISS_B1

1950-19992000

20502075

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - Echam_A2

1950-19992000

20502075

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - IPSL_A2

1950-19992000

20502075

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1950-19992000

20502075

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1950-19992000

20502075

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1950-19992000

20502075

Results: Snow Water Equivalent

2 4 6 8 10 12

1950-19992000

20502075

2 4 6 8 10 12

1950-19992000

20502075

2 4 6 8 10 12

1950-19992000

20502075

2 4 6 8 10 12

1950-19992000

20502075

2 4 6 8 10 12

1950-19992000

20502075

2 4 6 8 10 12

1950-19992000

20502075

Results: Streamflow1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Monthly Median Streamflow - GISS_B1

1950-19992000

20502075

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Monthly Median Streamflow - ECHAM_A2

1950-1999

20252050

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Monthly Median Streamflow - IPSL_A2

1950-1999

20002025

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

)1950-19992000

20502075

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Monthly Median Streamflow - ECHAM_A2

1950-1999

20252050

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1950-1999

20002025

Results: Streamflow2 4 6 8 10 12

1950-1999

2 4 6 8 10 12

Monthly Median Streamflow - Echam_A2

1950-1999

2 4 6 8 10 12

1950-1999

2 4 6 8 10 12

1950-1999

2 4 6 8 10 12

Monthly Median Streamflow - Echam_A2

1950-1999

2 4 6 8 10 12

1950-1999

Results: Peak Flow Events

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999)

Water Year

Ferndale-observed

Cedarville-simulated

Results: Peak Flow Events0e+00

Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - GISS_B1

Ferndale-observedCedarville-simulated

20252050

Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - Echam_A2

20252050

Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - IPSL_A2

20252050

Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - GISS_B1

20252050

Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - Echam_A2

20252050

Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - IPSL_A2

20252050

IPSL_A2 2000

0 2 4 6 8 10

IPSL_A2 2025

0 2 4 6 8 10

IPSL_A2 2050

0 2 4 6 8 10

IPSL_A2 2075

0 2 4 6 8 10

Simulated Peaks Above 30,000 cfs

Forecast Period

quency

2000 2025 2050 2075

GISS_B1

Echam_A2

IPSL_A2

Temperature or Precipitation?

• Predicted increases in

temperature and

precipitation

• More agreement on

temperature trends

• Previous regional

studies indicate that

temperature is the driving

factor in changes to

snowpack

(Hamlet et al., 2005,

Mote et al., 2005,

Mote et al., 2008)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Abbotsford

GISS_B1

ECHAM_A2

IPSL_A2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Abbotsford

GISS_B1

ECHAM_A2

IPSL_A2

Conclusions

• Snowpack will decrease

• Timing of peak snowpack and of

the spring melting will move earlier in

the year

• Winter streamflow will increase,

summer streamflow will decrease

• Peak flow events will increase in

magnitude and frequency

• Extent of change depends on

temperature change

Thank you!

Susan DickersonLandau Associates

www.landauinc.com

susanbitterroot@gmail.com

DHSVM: Calibration

Initial

Simulation

Calibration

Nooksack River, WY 06-07

1Jan2006 2Jul2006 1Jan2007 2Jul2007

Cedarville - observed

Cedarville - simulated

Nooksack River, WY 06-07

1Jan2006 2Jul2006 1Jan2007 2Jul2007

Cedarville - observed

Cedarville - simulated

IPCC 2001

Emissions Scenarios

Manning et al., 2010

Emissions Scenarios

Methods: Climate Change Forecasts

2040s Changes in Temperature and Precipitation

Mote and others, 2005

Three General

Circulation Models

(GCMs) :

1. IPSL_CM4_A2Institut Pierre Simon Laplace

(with A2)

2. Echam5_A2Max Planck Institute for

Meteorology (with A2)

3. GISS_ER_B1Goddard Institute for Space

Studies (with B1)

0e+00 4e+04 8e+04

Annual Peak Flows - 1950-1999

Streamflow (cfs)

xceedance P

robabili

Ferndale Observed

Cedearville Simulated

0e+00 4e+04 8e+04

Annual Peak Flows - GISS_B1

Streamflow (cfs)

xceedance P

robabili

1950-1999

0e+00 4e+04 8e+04

Annual Peak Flows - Echam_A2

Streamflow (cfs)

xceedance P

robabili

1950-1999

0e+00 4e+04 8e+04

Annual Peak Flows - IPSL_A2

Streamflow (cfs)

xceedance P

robabili

1950-1999

0e+00 4e+04 8e+04

Annual Peak Flows - 1950-1999

Streamflow (cfs)N

xceedance P

robabili

Ferndale Observed

Cedearville Simulated

0e+00 4e+04 8e+04

Annual Peak Flows - GISS_B1

Streamflow (cfs)

xceedance P

robabili

1950-1999

0e+00 4e+04 8e+04

Annual Peak Flows - Echam_A2

Streamflow (cfs)

xceedance P

robabili

1950-1999

0e+00 4e+04 8e+04

Annual Peak Flows - IPSL_A2

Streamflow (cfs)

xceedance P

robabili

1950-1999

Results: Spring Peak Flow Events

0 10000 30000 50000 70000

Spring Peak Flows - GISS_B1

Streamflow (cfs)

xceedance P

robabili

1950-1999

0 10000 30000 50000 70000

Spring Peak Flows - Echam_A2

Streamflow (cfs)

xceedance P

robabili

ty1950-1999

0 10000 30000 50000 70000

Spring Peak Flows - IPSL_A2

Streamflow (cfs)

xceedance P

robabili

1950-1999

0 10000 30000 50000 70000

Spring Peak Flows - GISS_B1

Streamflow (cfs)

xceedance P

robabili

1950-1999

0 10000 30000 50000 70000

Spring Peak Flows - Echam_A2

Streamflow (cfs)

xceedance P

robabili

1950-1999

0 10000 30000 50000 70000

Spring Peak Flows - IPSL_A2

Streamflow (cfs)

xceedance P

robabili

1950-1999

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