Modeling the effects of climate change forecasts on...
Transcript of Modeling the effects of climate change forecasts on...
Modeling the effects of climate change
forecasts on streamflow in the
Nooksack River basin
Susan Dickerson
Dr. Robert Mitchell
Photo: John Scurlock
Acknowledgements
Funding Provided By:
Whatcom County Flood Control Zone District
Alcoa Foundation
Assistance From:
Climate Change Technical Committee:
Matt Wiley & Austin Polebitski
Goal of Research
To predict the timing and magnitude of streamflow in the
Nooksack River basin under changing climate conditions
Photo: John Scurlock
Background: The Nooksack River
Streamflow at North Cedarville, WA
Water Year 2009 (Oct 2008 – Sept 2009)
Approach
Predicted
climate
data
Predictions
Future Snowpack
Future Streamflow
Future Peak Flows
Hydrology model
DHSVM
Spatial
characteristics
of Nooksack
River basin
Methods: DHSVM
Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model
Pascal Storck
Methods: DHSVM Calibration
Photo: NRCS
Photo: USGS
Forecast scale of 100s km local station
Methods: Forecast Downscaling
CIG, 2010
Methods: Local Climate Change Forecasts
Each forecast incorporates local variability
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
-10
01
02
03
0
Monthly Mean Temperature, 1950-1999
Month
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
Abbotsford
Methods: Local Climate Change Forecasts
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
-10
01
02
03
0
Monthly Mean Temperature, 1950-1999
Month
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
Abbotsford
GISS_B1 2050 Forecast
Each forecast incorporates local variability AND future climate trends
January Mean Temperature
Temperature (C)
Fre
qu
en
cy
-10 -5 0 5
05
10
15
-50
5
January Mean Temperature
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
Methods: Local Forecasts
median
Histogram Boxplot
Methods: Local Forecasts
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-10
01
02
03
0
Monthly Mean Temperature - 2050
Month
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
-10
01
02
03
0-1
00
10
20
30
-10
01
02
03
0
Abbotsford
GISS_B1
ECHAM_A2
IPSL_A2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-10
01
02
03
0
Monthly Mean Temperature - 2075
Month
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
-10
01
02
03
0-1
00
10
20
30
-10
01
02
03
0
Abbotsford
GISS_B1
ECHAM_A2
IPSL_A2
Methods: Local Forecasts
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
0
Total Monthly Precipitation - 2050
Month
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
mm
)
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
00
10
02
00
30
04
00
50
06
00
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
0
Abbotsford
GISS_B1
ECHAM_A2
IPSL_A2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
0
Total Monthly Precipitation - 2075
Month
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
mm
)
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
00
10
02
00
30
04
00
50
06
00
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
0
Abbotsford
GISS_B1
ECHAM_A2
IPSL_A2
Approach
Predicted
climate
data
Predictions
Future Snowpack
Future Streamflow
Future Peak Flows
Hydrology model
DHSVM
Spatial
characteristics
of Nooksack
River basin
Results: Snow Water Equivalent1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
23
45
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - GISS_B1
Month
SW
E(m
)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
23
45
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - Echam_A2
Month
SW
E(m
)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
23
45
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - IPSL_A2
Month
SW
E(m
)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
23
45
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - GISS_B1
Month
SW
E(m
)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
23
45
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - Echam_A2
Month
SW
E(m
)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
23
45
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - IPSL_A2
Month
SW
E(m
)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
Results: Snow Water Equivalent
2 4 6 8 10 12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - GISS_B1
Month
SW
E (
m)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
2 4 6 8 10 12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - Echam_A2
Month
SW
E (
m)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
2 4 6 8 10 12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - IPSL_A2
Month
SW
E (
m)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
2 4 6 8 10 12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - GISS_B1
Month
SW
E (
m)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
2 4 6 8 10 12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - Echam_A2
Month
SW
E (
m)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
2 4 6 8 10 12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - IPSL_A2
Month
SW
E (
m)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
Results: Streamflow1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
05000
10000
15000
20000
Monthly Median Streamflow - GISS_B1
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
05000
10000
15000
20000
Monthly Median Streamflow - ECHAM_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
20252050
2075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
05000
10000
15000
20000
Monthly Median Streamflow - IPSL_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
20002025
2050
2075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
05000
10000
15000
20000
Monthly Median Streamflow - GISS_B1
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)1950-19992000
2025
20502075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
05000
10000
15000
20000
Monthly Median Streamflow - ECHAM_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
20252050
2075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
05000
10000
15000
20000
Monthly Median Streamflow - IPSL_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
20002025
2050
2075
Results: Streamflow2 4 6 8 10 12
02000
6000
10000
Monthly Median Streamflow - GISS_B1
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
2 4 6 8 10 12
02000
6000
10000
Monthly Median Streamflow - Echam_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
2 4 6 8 10 12
02000
6000
10000
Monthly Median Streamflow - IPSL_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
2 4 6 8 10 12
02000
6000
10000
Monthly Median Streamflow - GISS_B1
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
2 4 6 8 10 12
02000
6000
10000
Monthly Median Streamflow - Echam_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
2 4 6 8 10 12
02000
6000
10000
Monthly Median Streamflow - IPSL_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
Results: Peak Flow Events
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
10
00
03
00
00
50
00
07
00
00
Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999)
Water Year
Str
ea
mflo
w (
cfs
)
Ferndale-observed
Cedarville-simulated
Results: Peak Flow Events0e+00
4e+04
8e+04
Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - GISS_B1
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
Ferndale-observedCedarville-simulated
2000
20252050
2075
0e+00
4e+04
8e+04
Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - Echam_A2
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
Ferndale-observedCedarville-simulated
2000
20252050
2075
0e+00
4e+04
8e+04
Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - IPSL_A2
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
Ferndale-observedCedarville-simulated
2000
20252050
2075
0e+00
4e+04
8e+04
Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - GISS_B1
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
Ferndale-observedCedarville-simulated
2000
20252050
2075
0e+00
4e+04
8e+04
Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - Echam_A2
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
Ferndale-observedCedarville-simulated
2000
20252050
2075
0e+00
4e+04
8e+04
Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - IPSL_A2
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
Ferndale-observedCedarville-simulated
2000
20252050
2075
Results: Peak Flow Events
IPSL_A2 2000
Month
Fre
qu
en
cy
0 2 4 6 8 10
010
20
30
40
IPSL_A2 2025
Month
Fre
qu
en
cy
0 2 4 6 8 10
010
20
30
40
IPSL_A2 2050
Month
Fre
qu
en
cy
0 2 4 6 8 10
010
20
30
40
IPSL_A2 2075
Month
Fre
qu
en
cy
0 2 4 6 8 10
010
20
30
40
Simulated Peaks Above 30,000 cfs
Forecast Period
Fre
quency
2000 2025 2050 2075
02
04
06
08
01
00
GISS_B1
Echam_A2
IPSL_A2
Temperature or Precipitation?
• Predicted increases in
temperature and
precipitation
• More agreement on
temperature trends
• Previous regional
studies indicate that
temperature is the driving
factor in changes to
snowpack
(Hamlet et al., 2005,
Mote et al., 2005,
Mote et al., 2008)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-10
01
02
03
0
Monthly Mean Temperature - 2075
Month
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
-10
01
02
03
0-1
00
10
20
30
-10
01
02
03
0
Abbotsford
GISS_B1
ECHAM_A2
IPSL_A2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
0
Total Monthly Precipitation - 2075
Month
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
mm
)
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
00
10
02
00
30
04
00
50
06
00
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
0
Abbotsford
GISS_B1
ECHAM_A2
IPSL_A2
Conclusions
• Snowpack will decrease
• Timing of peak snowpack and of
the spring melting will move earlier in
the year
• Winter streamflow will increase,
summer streamflow will decrease
• Peak flow events will increase in
magnitude and frequency
• Extent of change depends on
temperature change
Photo: John Scurlock
DHSVM: Calibration
Initial
Simulation
After
Calibration
01
00
00
30
00
0
Nooksack River, WY 06-07
Date
Da
ily M
ea
n S
tre
am
flo
w (
cfs
)
1Jan2006 2Jul2006 1Jan2007 2Jul2007
Cedarville - observed
Cedarville - simulated
01
00
00
30
00
0
Nooksack River, WY 06-07
Date
Da
ily M
ea
n S
tre
am
flo
w (
cfs
)
1Jan2006 2Jul2006 1Jan2007 2Jul2007
Cedarville - observed
Cedarville - simulated
IPCC 2001
Emissions Scenarios
Manning et al., 2010
Emissions Scenarios
Methods: Climate Change Forecasts
2040s Changes in Temperature and Precipitation
Mote and others, 2005
Three General
Circulation Models
(GCMs) :
1. IPSL_CM4_A2Institut Pierre Simon Laplace
(with A2)
2. Echam5_A2Max Planck Institute for
Meteorology (with A2)
3. GISS_ER_B1Goddard Institute for Space
Studies (with B1)
Results: Peak Flow Events
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - 1950-1999
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
Ferndale Observed
Cedearville Simulated
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - GISS_B1
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - Echam_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - IPSL_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - 1950-1999
Streamflow (cfs)N
on-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
Ferndale Observed
Cedearville Simulated
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - GISS_B1
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - Echam_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - IPSL_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
Results: Spring Peak Flow Events
0 10000 30000 50000 70000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Peak Flows - GISS_B1
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0 10000 30000 50000 70000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Peak Flows - Echam_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0 10000 30000 50000 70000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Peak Flows - IPSL_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0 10000 30000 50000 70000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Peak Flows - GISS_B1
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0 10000 30000 50000 70000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Peak Flows - Echam_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0 10000 30000 50000 70000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Peak Flows - IPSL_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075