WORKING GROUP 1

MODELING OF WIND WAVES AND SURGE EVENTS IN THE

CASPIAN, BLACK, AZOV AND BALTIC SEAS

High-resolution retrospective analysis of wind waves in the Russian coastal zones of the Azov, Baltic, Black and Caspian SeasHigh-resolution retrospective analysis of surge events in the Russian coastal zones of the Azov, Baltic, Black and Caspian Seas

TASKS OF WORKING GROUP 1

INITIAL DATABATHYMETRY

Caspian Sea5 km x 5 km

Black Sea5 km x 5 km

Azov Sea0.02° x 0.01°

Baltic Sea0.05° x 0.05°

INITIAL DATAWIND FORCING

NCEP/NCAR ReanalysisCaspian Sea - ~1,9x1,9°, 6 hour,

1948-2010

Black Sea - ~1,9x1,9°, 6 hour, 1948-2010

Azov Sea - 0.3° x 0.3°, 1 hour, 1979-2010

Baltic Sea - ~1,9x1,9°, 6 hour, 1948-2010

SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore)

ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation Model)

SMS (Surface Water Modeling System)

MODELS

Spectral wave model SWAN

Friction JONSWAP

Nonlinear quadruplet wave interactionsTriad wave-wave interactions

Breaking

Diffraction

ADCIRCADVANCED CIRCULATION MODEL FOR OCEANIC, COASTAL AND ESTUARINE WATERS (ADCIRC) is a system of computer programs for solving time dependent, free surface circulation and transport problems in two and three dimensions.Typical ADCIRC applications include modeling tides and wind driven circulation, analysis of hurricane storm surge and flooding, dredging feasibility and material disposal studies, larval transport studies, near shore marine operations. ADCIRC is a highly developed computer program for solving the equations of motion for a moving fluid on a rotating earth.

ADCIRC can be forced with:- elevation boundary conditions;

- normal flow boundary conditions;- surface stress boundary conditions;

- tidal potential;- earth load/self attraction tide.

SMS - The Complete Modeling Solution

Flexible modeling approachesAquaveo pioneered the conceptual model approach. Work with large, complex models in a simple and efficient manner by using the conceptual modeling approach and easily update or change the model as needed.SMS also has powerful tools to build meshes and grids.

3D visualization optimized for performance

SMS is the most advanced software system available for performing surface-water simulations in a three-dimensional environment.Interact with models in true 3DOptimized OpenGL graphics for improved hardware rendering.Create photo-realistic renderingsGenerate animations for PowerPoint or web presentationsDrape images over the model and control the opacityAnnotations – Add north arrows, scale bars, reference images, company logos, and more

Import what you needModels require data from many different sources. That’s why SMS is built to easily import numerous file types:Raster images including georeference and projection support;Topographical maps & aerial photos;Elevation & bathymetry data;Web data services such as TerraServer;ArcGIS geodatabases and shapefilesCAD files including .dwg, .dgn, and .dxf formats

ESTIMATION OF EXTREME WIND WAVE HEIGHTS

Initial Distribution Method (IDM)

Annual Maxima Series (AMS)

Peak Over Threshold (POT)

Quantile Function Method (BOULVAR)

Initial Distribution MethodGeneralized characteristic of the wave regime are regime distributions. Analysis of measurement data showed that one-dimensional distribution of wave heights and periods are described by a logarithmically normal distribution: dxx

xxF

x

2ln

21exp1

21)(

where μ - mathematical expectation, σ - the standard of the wave height logarithms. This distribution can be expressed in another way:

dxxx

xsxF

x

5.0

2ln21exp1

2)(

where s=1/σ.To calculate the characteristics of extreme wave was the initial distribution  method (IDM, Initial Distribution Method), in which to evaluate the highest wave height is taken quintile h(p) of regime height distribution F (h) for a given probability p:

Ttp

36524

COMPUTING RESOURCES

NRAL Mini Cluster

NRAL HP-Server

Super Computer “Lomonosov”

Peak Performance 510

TFlops Number of

Processors/Cores 10260/44000

Memory 73 290 Gb

WIND WAVEThe largest calculated parameters of wind

waves

CASPIAN SEA

BALTIC SEA

BLACK SEA

AZOV SEA

WIND WAVESeasonal variability

Number of storms Average duration, h Average area, km2

CASPIAN SEA

BALTIC SEA

WIND WAVELong-term variability

CASPIAN SEA BLACK SEA

BALTIC SEA

WIND WAVESignificant wave height of a possible 1 time

in 100 years

BLACK SEA CASPIAN SEA

BALTIC SEA AZOV SEA

SURGE EVENTS

Grid -107651 cells and 54805 nodes

Black line - the boundary of the computational domain; blue line – shoreline; red points – sea; blue points - land

Storm surge - 23-27 December 1968

NORTHERN CASPIAN

AZOV SEA

NOVEMBER 2007

NOVEMBER 2007