MOBILE TRENDS 2008

Time for my-portal1

� From all-in-one portals (e.g Yahoo), to verticals (vortals, e.g.

music, sports, healthcare), to personalised my-portals (e.g.

iGoogle), to user-centric me-portals (e.g. Facebook)

1995 2000 2005 2010

WEB

MOBILE

Portals Horizontals My-Portals

Vortals

Portals My-portals

Vortals Me-portals

Content is aging; Content communication is king

2

� The sale value of content is decreasing

and DRM continues to fade away…

� It is all about personalization & mashing

up content

”up to 25% of the entertainment being consumed in five years will be what we call

'Circular’.. people will have a genuine desire not only to create and share their own

content, but also to remix it, mash it up and pass it on within their peer groups”.

Mark Selby, VP Multimedia, Nokia, Dec 07

The internet is reaching into the phone3

2001+:

� The phone reached out to the internet through WAP and web.But the phone was only open to the short head of 10s of 2nd parties (OEM partners)

and 100s of 3rd parties with strong funding.

2007+:

� The internet is reaching into the phone..The long tail of 1,000s to 1,000,000s of 3rd party developers and scripters are reaching out

to the phone thanks to availability of AJAX, Widget platforms and Web runtimes e.g. Nokia Web RunTime, Nokia S60 browser, Motorola WebUI, Nokia WidSets, Opera Widgets, Bling Software, Webwag.

2009+:

� The phone becomes an active node of the internetConsuming and producing services, e.g. Nokia S60 web server, efforts by Conveneer

Disruption through Open source4

� Browser Industry

Open source Web Kit -based browsers

used by KDE, Apple, Nokia, Android and

Motorola

� Operating System

Google Android

Open handset alliance…..better options will be available to consumers SOON

All-IP environment(all technologies become available on cell phones)

• GSM

• UMTS/3G

• GPS

• DVB-H

• HSDPA

• Bluetooth

• Wi-Fi/Wimax

• Fixed Networks

Innovation is happening everywhere now…

War of application environments5

� Not a war of operating systems

anymore….but application executing

environments (AEEs)

Flash Lite vs Java; Adobe’s aggressive subsidy vs Sun’s JCP

standardisation process.

Java SE vs Java ME; Android’s Dalvik, and Sun’s strategy to phase out Java

ME

web programming vs open OS; AJAX, Widgets and web runtimes vs open

OS platforms (S60, WM)

interpreted languages vs C++; AppForge, Python, Ruby, .NET (Red Five

Labs) vs S60

OEMs go for services and vertical propositions

6

OEM acquisitions 2006-7:

� - Nokia acquired Avvenu (file sharing), Navteq (LBS), EnPocket(mobile advertising), Twango (media sharing), Pixto (physical world connection), Loudeye (digital music), gate5 AG (LBS) and Intellisync (mobile device management).

� - Motorola invested in Tilefile (content sharing) and acquired Leapstone (SDP), Modulus Video (video codec), Tut Systems(content distribution), Broadbus (content on demand) and Good Technologies (email sync).

Own OEM services:

� - Nokia (Ovi, Maps, Mosh, Medeo, Comes with Music, Internet Radio, Download!), Motorola Screen 3, SEMC (TrackID, PlayNow)

Vertical propositions:

� - Sony Ericsson Walkman & Cybershot, Nokia E-Series, N-Series.

Brands as the new form of equity in handsets

7

OEMs have been creating co-branded handsets since 2004:

� Sony Ericsson: Walkman, Cybershot

� Nokia: E-series, N-series, location-aware devices, Zac Posen, Versace, Aston Martin, WESC

� LG: Prada, Shine, Chocolate, SD410 sports

� Samsung: Armani, B&O Serene, B&O Serenata, credit-card sized phones

� Motorola: D&G, Pininfarina, Aston Martin, Vivienne Westwood, Red

� Fly: Hummer

Operator own-brand devices are making a comeback:

� Vodafone tried with 4 Simply handsets since 2005, but scaled down due to retailing challenges

� Huawei, ZTE and Sharp devices are still going strong, as are partnerships with Ferrari

� Lots more to come in 2008.

Consumers looking for experiences8

Experiences….built through interactive

content distribution

Mobile operators, handset OEMs and media brands are deploying on-device portals as the evolution of web/WAP.

� e.g. Orange Downloads, Vodafone ODP, Nokia Content Discoverer, Nokia Download!, Three ODP, Refresh Mobile

ODPs surpass web/WAP in terms of

� reduced click-distance to purchase, therefore increased revenue

� preview before buying

� faster startup time & less resource-hungry

� better device integration

� graphical richness & improved user interaction,

� low latency (background content fetching & intelligent caching)

� lower bandwidth costs.

Mobile Proxies…. Enabling the masses access

the Internet9

What are Proxies: Proxies optimise web content delivery for

increased addressable market…. lower latency, lower

congestion and higher speed.

� Speed proxies: image compression, efficient page contents caching, HTTP & content pipelining.e.g. Bytemobile, NSN, Flash Networks (NettGain), Venturi VServer, Novarra

� Transcoding proxies: page reformatting, image reduction, menu simplification, session tracking, SSL session handling, XHTML/MP adaptatione.g. InfoGin IMP, Google Wireless Transcoder, Novarra nweb, Volantis Transcoder, Greenlight Wireless Skweezer, Clicksheet

� Pre-rendering proxies: pre-renders page before sending and improves navigation.e.g. Opera Mini, Bitstream ThunderHawk

Mobile 2.0….gaining traction10

� Audio (Nokia Podcasting, Visual Radio, Rhapsody, iTunes)

� Development Platforms (mFoundry, Funambol)

� Entreprise (SoonR)

� Imaging (scanR, Shozu, Daem Interactive)

� Location-Based (buddyping, loopt, Plazes, Socialight,

dodgeball)

� Media Sharing (Shozu, Mosh, MoJungle, PixPulse, PixSense,

SharpCast)

� Microblogging (Jaiku, Twitter, Pownce, Frazr, Fanfou, Zuosa,

Blabto)

� Mobile advertising (Google, AdMob, Smaato, Nokia, JumpTap)

� Mobilize (BluePulse, Plusmo, Winksite)

� POS Mobile Channels (Futurlink)

� QR-codes (BeeTagg, Kaywa, ShotCode)

� Search (Google, Yahoo, Taptu)

� Shopping (Frucall, Text2Store)

� Social Media (Facebook, MySpace, MyStrands, Mobiluck,

Zingku)

� Transactions (Mobo, MyNuMo)

� Video (YouTube, ViiF, Oplayo, vpod.tv, JuiceCaster, ComVu)

� VoIP (Fring, Jajah, Rebtel, Cellity, Gizmo, GrandCentral,

TalkPlus,Truphone)

� Widgets (Bling, Widsets, Mojax, Webwag)

More to come….lookout!!

Mobile…. A FMCG Business?12

Similarities….

� Making phones has tiny margins and no consumer value.

� As in the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) business, value is in:a) defining the right niche segment & proposition,

b) last mile customisation, retailing and placement,

c) in-life experience; delivering compelling services across the

user journey

Low on Value… high on operations

market

research

product

definition

brand

licensing

industrial

design

hardware

design

assembly &

manufact.

software

integration

certification

& QA

last mile

customisation

channel

distribution

retailing &

placement

sale

customer

support

service

delivery

Value

Opps

New revenue model….Channel13

Revenue from delivering 3rd party services/products through

the last mile to the end user.

� UI inventory leasing through auctioning of handset UI inventory

to advertisers and promoters

� Retail sub leasing of shelf space to OEMs and service

providers, e.g. visual service retailing

� Service delivery channels e.g. Vodafone, Telefonica, TIM

revenue share with Nokia’s Ovi

� Bundling e.g. Amazon Kindle + newspaper subs or Nokia

Download! bundling of service providers.

� Access to consumers e.g. iPhone subscription revenue share,

Blyk ad-funded MVNO

� User analytics leasing e.g. info on user location, billing, call

graphs, presence, service usage

Credits – analyst reports

� ARCchart

� Ovum

� Informa

� VisionMobile Research

� M-trends.org