Post on 02-Feb-2016
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April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 1
Microprocessors 2004
Nick Tredennick, EditorGilder Technology Report
bozo@computer.org
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Overview
• Major trends affecting the microprocessor market– Value PC– Value transistor– Emerging economies
• Microprocessors– Computer microprocessors– Embedded microprocessors– Configurable microprocessors– PLD microprocessors
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 3
The PC Is Good Enough
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 4
Transistors Are Good Enough
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 5
Foundries: Adoption Rate By Process
Modeled after: TSMC http://www.tsmc.com/english/technology/t0203.htm
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 6
Semiconductor Trends
• Value PCs outsell leading-edge PCs– Mobile applications emerge– Design emphasis shifts from cost
performance to cost-performance-per-watt
• Value transistors outsell leading-edge transistors– Transistor performance overshoots many
applications– Increasing demand in emerging economies– Foundry strength grows
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 7
Microprocessors
• x86 AMD, Intel, Transmeta, Via• ARC ARC• ARM ARM• MicroBlaze Xilinx• MIPS MIPS• Nios Altera• PowerPC IBM, Freescale• SPARC Sun• Tensilica Stretch, Tensilica• Old stuff Everyone
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 8
Microprocessor Applications
• Supercomputers• Workstations and servers• PCs• Embedded systems
– Automobiles– Cameras– Cell phones– Game players– MP3 players– Set-top boxes
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 9
Computer Markets
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Microprocessor Markets
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Embedded PCs Servers
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Computer Microprocessors
• x86– AMD– Intel– Transmeta– Via
• Proprietary– IBM– Freescale– Sun
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Embedded Microprocessors
• Microprocessor advantages– Flexibility– High-volume production– Usable by programmers
• Microprocessor limitations– Too slow– Too much power
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 13
Embedded Microprocessors
• x86 AMD, Transmeta, Via
• ARM ARM
• PowerPC IBM, Freescale
• Old stuff Everyone– Triscend (Xilinx)
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 14
Microprocessors and ASICs
• For the ultimate in flexibility, programmers map the application onto a general-purpose microprocessor.
• For the ultimate in performance, logic designers map the application into a custom circuit.
App
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Microprocessor
ASIC
Programmers
Logic designers
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ASICs & Microprocessors
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 16
ASICs & Microprocessors
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 17
ASICs & Microprocessors
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 18
Configurable Microprocessors
• ARC ARC
• Ascenium Ascenium
• MIPS MIPS
• Nios Altera
• Tensilica Stretch, Tensilica
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 19
Microprocessor
Design-time configurable
microprocessor
Run-time reconfigurable microprocessor
Dynamically reconfigurable microprocessor
ASIC
FPGA
ARCMIPSTensilica
Stretch
Ascenium
Microprocessor Evolution
Programmers
Logic designers
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 20
PLD Microprocessors
• Altera– Nios (soft)
• Xilinx– MicroBlaze (soft)– PicoBlaze (soft)– PowerPC (hard)
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 21
Situation
What Value Who• FPGAs $3B logic designers• ASICs $30B logic designers• Microprocessors $40B programmers
FPGAs and microprocessors are usurping a declining ASIC market. Microprocessors (and their derivatives) will win.
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 22
Recommendation
• Altera and Xilinx should become soft-core microcontroller companies (instead of PLD companies)
• Sell the same chips, but to a larger, programming-oriented customer base– Sell custom soft-core microcontrollers– Sell peripheral IP
“Can’t find the perfect microcontroller? Make one—today.”
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Why?
• Today’s customers are logic designers; tomorrow’s customers will be programmers– Programming is more cost effective than
logic design because it is a higher level of abstraction
– There are ten times as many customers (more programmers than logic designers)
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 24
The Value PC
• PCs are good enough– Value PC shifts design emphasis to mobile
systems– SRAM, DRAM, and flash are unsuitable for mobile
systems– A new non-volatile memory device will emerge
• The first programmable logic company to adopt CMOS-compatible, non-volatile memory could gain a decisive advantage.
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 25
The Value Transistor
• Today’s transistors are good enough for most applications– The value transistor favors foundries over
integrated device manufacturers– Fabs are good enough– 3D wafer stacking will emerge
• The first programmable logic company to adopt wafer stacking could gain a decisive advantage.
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Microprocessor-like
• DSPs
• Network processors
• Specialty processors
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Consequences
• Rise of mobile applications– New non-volatile memories
• Rise of foundries– Rise of soft (IP) cores– Horizontal fragmentation of integrated device
manufacturers
• Rise of non-volatile FPGAs• Rise of reconfigurable systems• Growing market for embedded microprocessors
– Tethered: traditional role– Mobile: supervisory role