Microprocessors 2004

April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 1

Microprocessors 2004

Nick Tredennick, EditorGilder Technology Report

[email protected]

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Overview

• Major trends affecting the microprocessor market– Value PC– Value transistor– Emerging economies

• Microprocessors– Computer microprocessors– Embedded microprocessors– Configurable microprocessors– PLD microprocessors


The PC Is Good Enough


Transistors Are Good Enough


Foundries: Adoption Rate By Process

Modeled after: TSMC http://www.tsmc.com/english/technology/t0203.htm


Semiconductor Trends

• Value PCs outsell leading-edge PCs– Mobile applications emerge– Design emphasis shifts from cost

performance to cost-performance-per-watt

• Value transistors outsell leading-edge transistors– Transistor performance overshoots many

applications– Increasing demand in emerging economies– Foundry strength grows


Microprocessors

• x86 AMD, Intel, Transmeta, Via• ARC ARC• ARM ARM• MicroBlaze Xilinx• MIPS MIPS• Nios Altera• PowerPC IBM, Freescale• SPARC Sun• Tensilica Stretch, Tensilica• Old stuff Everyone


Microprocessor Applications

• Supercomputers• Workstations and servers• PCs• Embedded systems

– Automobiles– Cameras– Cell phones– Game players– MP3 players– Set-top boxes


Computer Markets

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Microprocessor Markets

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Computer Microprocessors

• x86– AMD– Intel– Transmeta– Via

• Proprietary– IBM– Freescale– Sun


Embedded Microprocessors

• Microprocessor advantages– Flexibility– High-volume production– Usable by programmers

• Microprocessor limitations– Too slow– Too much power


Embedded Microprocessors

• x86 AMD, Transmeta, Via

• ARM ARM

• PowerPC IBM, Freescale

• Old stuff Everyone– Triscend (Xilinx)


Microprocessors and ASICs

• For the ultimate in flexibility, programmers map the application onto a general-purpose microprocessor.

• For the ultimate in performance, logic designers map the application into a custom circuit.

App

licat

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Microprocessor

ASIC

Programmers

Logic designers


ASICs & Microprocessors


Configurable Microprocessors

• ARC ARC

• Ascenium Ascenium

• MIPS MIPS

• Nios Altera

• Tensilica Stretch, Tensilica


Microprocessor

Design-time configurable

microprocessor

Run-time reconfigurable microprocessor

Dynamically reconfigurable microprocessor

ASIC

FPGA

ARCMIPSTensilica

Stretch

Ascenium

Microprocessor Evolution

Programmers

Logic designers


PLD Microprocessors

• Altera– Nios (soft)

• Xilinx– MicroBlaze (soft)– PicoBlaze (soft)– PowerPC (hard)


Situation

What Value Who• FPGAs $3B logic designers• ASICs $30B logic designers• Microprocessors $40B programmers

FPGAs and microprocessors are usurping a declining ASIC market. Microprocessors (and their derivatives) will win.


Recommendation

• Altera and Xilinx should become soft-core microcontroller companies (instead of PLD companies)

• Sell the same chips, but to a larger, programming-oriented customer base– Sell custom soft-core microcontrollers– Sell peripheral IP

“Can’t find the perfect microcontroller? Make one—today.”


Why?

• Today’s customers are logic designers; tomorrow’s customers will be programmers– Programming is more cost effective than

logic design because it is a higher level of abstraction

– There are ten times as many customers (more programmers than logic designers)


The Value PC

• PCs are good enough– Value PC shifts design emphasis to mobile

systems– SRAM, DRAM, and flash are unsuitable for mobile

systems– A new non-volatile memory device will emerge

• The first programmable logic company to adopt CMOS-compatible, non-volatile memory could gain a decisive advantage.


The Value Transistor

• Today’s transistors are good enough for most applications– The value transistor favors foundries over

integrated device manufacturers– Fabs are good enough– 3D wafer stacking will emerge

• The first programmable logic company to adopt wafer stacking could gain a decisive advantage.


Microprocessor-like

• DSPs

• Network processors

• Specialty processors


Consequences

• Rise of mobile applications– New non-volatile memories

• Rise of foundries– Rise of soft (IP) cores– Horizontal fragmentation of integrated device

manufacturers

• Rise of non-volatile FPGAs• Rise of reconfigurable systems• Growing market for embedded microprocessors

– Tethered: traditional role– Mobile: supervisory role

Microprocessors 2004

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