AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Market update of wheat, maize, rice and soybeansA perspective of the G20 Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)

Denis DrechslerAMIS Project Manager

Agritechnica, Hannover9-10 November 2015

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

• What is AMIS?

• Why was it created?

• How does it work?

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

• An inter-agency platform to enhance food market transparency and reduce the likelihood of food price volatility

• Ten member organizations:

• Launched by G20 Ministers of Agriculture in 2011

• Target crops:

• Information focus: production, utilization, stocks, trade

• Participants: G20 Members & Spain plus 7 invited countries

Agricultural Market Information System

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Global coverage

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Uniting main players

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

• What is AMIS?

• Why was it created?

• How does it work?

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Food prices more volatile than in the past

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Threatening global food security

Consumers of food Food price volatility• Particularly harmful

for poor households• Causing economic

hardship• Lowering dietary

diversification

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Threatening global food security

Agricultural producers Food price volatility• Causes large income

fluctuations• Makes future planning

difficult• Delays investments to

increase productivity

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Reasons for higher volatility include• Lower stockholding from countries• Increased dependence on food imports• Erratic outputs from new production zones• Growing links with outside markets (e.g. energy)• Few countries providing most of the export supply• Use of restrictive trade measures• Climate change and stronger weather swings; etc.

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

• What is AMIS?

• Why was it created?

• How does it work?

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Three main bodies

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Meeting regularly

At technical level: Information Group

– Rome: 9-10 February 2012– Rome: 2-4 October 2012– Paris: 23-24 April 2013– Rome: 1-2 October 2013– Mexico City: 21-22 May 2014– Rome: 9-10 October 2014– Rome: 14-15 May 2015– Milan: 19 October 2015

At policy level:Rapid Response Forum

– Mexico City: 11 April 2012– Washington D.C.: 20 February 2013– Canberra: 3 March 2014– London: 26-27 March 2015

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

A strong team of member organizations

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

AMIS Market Monitor• Providing a collective assessment of the

market situation and outlook by the ten international organizations that form the AMIS Secretariat and GEOGLAM

• Produced 10 times a year

• Release dates in 2015: 05 February, 05 March, 02 April, 07 May, 04 June, 09 July, 10 September, 08 October, 05 November, 03 December

http://www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoring/

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Market update: Nov 2015

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Falling Food Prices

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Plunging oil prices

http://www.amis-outlook.org/indicators/prices/en/

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Appreciating US Dollar

http://www.amis-outlook.org/indicators/prices/en/

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Higher the Dollar, lower the prices!Currency movements against the US dollar over the past 12 months

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Ocean freight relatively low & steady

http://www.amis-outlook.org/indicators/prices/en/

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Fertilizer prices relatively low & steady

http://www.amis-outlook.org/indicators/prices/en/

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Market situation in Nov 2015• Slight increase in prices of all four AMIS commodities

• However, prices well below the corresponding period last year

• Weaker prices reflect large export availabilities in 2015/16 in the face of generally frail import demand, especially with regard to wheat and maize.

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Wheat conditions for AMIS countries

As of 28 October 2015

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Maize conditions for AMIS countries

As of 28 October 2015

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Rice conditions for AMIS countries

As of 28 October 2015

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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015

Soybeans conditions for AMIS countries

As of 28 October 2015

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Thank You