M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter The CAFE...

M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes.

Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter

The CAFE baseline scenarios:

Emission projections

Approach for baseline emission projections

• Match RAINS estimates with nationally reported emission inventories for 2000

• Use projections on emission generating activities (energy, transport, agriculture) – EU-wide scenarios and national projections

• Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020– Taking account of international and national legislation

Preparation of RAINS databases

Bilateral consultations (1)

Country or organization

Consultation meeting date

No of experts

Comments received Comments PRIMES

Energy scenario

Agr. scen

Denmark - - 16 Jan 04 - Y Y

Latvia - - 08 Oct 03 - - Y

EUROPIA 2-3 Oct 03 2 05 Dec 03 – 23 Mar 04 -

EURELECTRIC 30-31 Oct 03 4 - -

Hungary 14 Nov 03 1 - - - -

Germany 20-21 Nov 03 4 19 Dec 03 - 23 Mar 04 Y - -

Czech Republic 25 Nov 03 3 19 Dec - 27 Feb, 07Apr 04 Y Y Y

ACEA 12 Dec 03 10 - -

Italy 15-16 Dec 03 2 19 Jan, 15 Feb - 02 Apr 04 Y Y -

France 8-9 Jan 04 5 31 Mar 04 - 2-15 Apr 04 Y Y -

Sweden 22-23 Jan 04 3 29 Jan, 09 Mar - 04 Apr 04 Y Y Y

UK 26-28 Jan 04 8 19 Feb, 03 Mar - 15 Mar, 06 Apr 04

Spain 4-5 Feb 04 5 30 Mar 04 - 13 Apr 04 Y - -

Bilateral consultations (2)

Country or organization

Consultation meeting date

No of experts

Comments received Comments PRIMES

Energy scenario

Agr. . scen

Portugal 12-13 Feb 04 5 27 Feb, 03,05 Mar - 08 Apr 04 Y Y Y

Belgium 16-17 Feb 04 7 08 Mar - 2-13 Apr, 06 Apr 04 Y Y -

Austria 23 Feb 04 11 24 Feb - 18,19 Mar, 19 Apr 04 - - Y

Ireland 4-5/19 Mar 04 2 12,19 Mar 04 Y - Y

ESVOC 8 Mar 04 7 - - -

Finland 8-9 Mar 04 3 19, 25 Mar 04 - 19 Apr 04 Y Y -

Lithuania 10 Mar 04 2 24 Mar 04 Y - -

Estonia 12 Mar 04 2 17 Mar 04 - - -

Slovakia 15 Mar 04 3 22 Mar 04 Y - -

Poland 17-18 Mar 04 2 17,18 Mar 04 - 07 Apr 04 - - -

Slovenia 22 Mar 04 2 24,29 Mar 04 - 01, 08 Apr 04 - Y Y

Netherlands 25-26 Mar 04 4 16 Mar 04 - 02,08,18 Apr 04 Y - Y

19 + 4 101 21 14 10 10

eden UK

RAINS emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000

National inventory RAINS estimate

Economic drivers for emission projections

Projections of economic activitiesused for the CAFE baseline scenarios

Energy

• Revised PRIMES projection for all 25 EU countries, with climate measures (carbon price 12-20 €/t CO2)

– Including national comments received after April

• DG-TREN Energy Outlook to 2030 (PRIMES calculations for all 25 EU countries, without further climate measures)

• National projections (10 countries) - with climate measures?

Agriculture

• DG-AGRI projection for all 25 EU countries, pre-CAP reform

• National projections (10 countries)

Economic driversassumed for the PRIMES energy projections

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use Passenger kmFreight ton-km Cattle lifestock Sea transport

CO2 emissionsof the PRIMES projections [Mt]

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

New Member StatesEU-15 Kyoto target EU-15 Kyoto target EU-25

Withclimate measures

No furtherclimate

measures

National projectionsconsidered for the CAFE baseline

Energy

• Belgium

• Czech Republic

• Denmark

• Finland

• France

• Italy

• Portugal

• Slovenia

• Sweden

• UK

Agriculture

• Austria

• Denmark

• France

• Ireland

• Italy

• Latvia

• Netherlands

• Portugal

• Slovenia

• UK

CO2 emissions 2015relative to 2000

Belgium Denmark Finland France Italy Portugal Sweden UK CzechRepublic

Slovenia

With climate measures No further climate measures National projection

SO2 emissions

SO2 emissions by sector“With climate measures” scenario [kt]

NewMember

States

Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes

NEC emission ceiling

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

SO2 emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings

With climate measures No further climate measuresNational energy projections NEC emission ceiling

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Range of SO2 emission projections[kt]

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

----- EU-15 ----- New Member States ---- Sea regions

SO2 emissions“With climate measures” scenario [kt]

2000 2020

EU-15 New Member States Sea regions

NOx emissions

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NOx emissions by sector“With climate measures” scenario [kt]

New Member

States

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NOx emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-25

Power generationPower generation

Industrial combustionIndustrial combustion

Industrial processesIndustrial processes

Domestic

DomesticGasoline cars

Gasoline cars

Diesel carsDiesel cars

Off-road

Diesel heavy duty veh.

Off-road

2000 2020

NOx emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Range of NOx emission projections[kt]

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

----- EU-15 ----- New Member States ---- Sea regions

NOx emissions“With climate measures” scenario [kt]

2000 2020

EU-15 New Member States Sea regions

VOC emissions

VOC emissions“With climate measures” scenario [kt]

New Member

States

Power generation Industry HouseholdsTransport Agriculture Solvents Waste National Emission Ceilings

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

VOC emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings

NH3 emissions

NH3 emissions “Pre-CAP reform” scenario [kt]

NewMember

States

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NH3 emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings

Europe-wide pre-CAP reform scenario National agricultural projectionsNEC emission ceiling

Primary PM emissions

RAINS PM emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000

eden UK

MS PM2.5

National inventory RAINS estimate

PM2.5 emissions by sector “With climate measures” scenario [kt]

NewMember

States

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Contribution to primary PM2.5 emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-15

Industrial combustionIndustrial combustion

Industrial processesIndustrial processes

Diesel exhaust, cars

Diesel exhaust, carsDiesel exhaust, HDT

Non-exhaust Non-exhaust

Off-road Off-road

Agriculture Agriculture

Domestic, wood stoves

2000 2020

Black carbon emissions “With climate measures” scenario [kt]

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

New Member

States

Coal, oil Wood Diesel, gasoline Other

Conclusions

• While accounting for continued economic growth …

• National emissions of air pollutants will decrease up to 2020: SO2 -65%, NOx-50%, VOC -45%, NH3 -4%, PM2.5 -45%

• Due to structural changes and emission control legislation

• Relevance of sectors for further measures will change.

– Small combustion sources!

– Industrial processes, solvents!

– Off-road vehicles and machinery!

• Emissions from maritime activities will surpass land-based emissions of EU-25

The baseline scenario on the Web

All country- and sector-specific results of the baseline scenarios are available at:

www.iiasa.ac.at/rains

M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter The CAFE...

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